Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) vs Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, DVN is overvalued at $48, with a DCF intrinsic value of $28 and a margin of safety of -76%. OXY is undervalued at $59, with an intrinsic value of $80 and a margin of safety of 26%. Of the two, OXY has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Devon Energy Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Gross margin of 73.3% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 5.2% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 11.2x is 47% above the historical average of 7.6x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.92 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 21.2 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Occidental Petroleum Corporation scores only 14/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 2 out of 3 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $48?
Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $59?
Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.
No durable competitive advantage detected. The business shows limited evidence of pricing power, consistent returns, or capital efficiency.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: DVN vs OXY
Is Devon Energy Corporation or Occidental Petroleum Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, OXY trades at a 25.6% margin of safety (intrinsic value $80 vs. price $59), compared to DVN's -75.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $28 vs. $48).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Devon Energy Corporation or Occidental Petroleum Corporation?▼
DVN scores 42/100 (Narrow moat), while OXY scores 14/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation in financial distress?▼
OXY's Altman Z-Score of 1.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. DVN scores 2.3 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Devon Energy Corporation or Occidental Petroleum Corporation?▼
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) generates a 6.4% free cash flow yield, compared to Devon Energy Corporation's 5.2%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Devon Energy Corporation or Occidental Petroleum Corporation?▼
OXY earns 15.1% ROIC versus DVN's 11.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Devon Energy Corporation's or Occidental Petroleum Corporation's?▼
DVN's dividend earns a safety score of 85/100 (Very Safe), compared to OXY's 78/100 (Safe). DVN has raised its dividend for 0 consecutive years.