Dow Inc. (DOW) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-03, DOW is overvalued at $30, with a DCF intrinsic value of $0 and a margin of safety of -100%. LLY is undervalued at $1149, with an intrinsic value of $1529604356065 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Management has timed buybacks well — 2 out of 3 years showed value-accretive repurchases.
- ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 11.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 9.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Dow Inc. scores only 22/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $30?
Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1149?
The market implies -30.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding -15.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: DOW vs LLY
Is Dow Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1529604356065 vs. price $1149), compared to DOW's -100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $0 vs. $30).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Dow Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼
LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while DOW scores 22/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Dow Inc. in financial distress?▼
DOW's Altman Z-Score of 1.5 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 2.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Dow Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼
LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus DOW's 10.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Dow Inc.'s or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼
LLY's dividend earns a safety score of 64/100 (Safe), compared to DOW's 50/100 (Borderline). LLY has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.