SafetyMargin.ioSafetyMargin.io
BlogWatchlistCompare
Compare Stocks › DLTR vs UNH

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

DLTR
Dollar Tree, Inc.
$105.56
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$280.44

Rewards

DLTR
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 13.0% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 10% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 3.56 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
UNH
  • ★5 insider purchases over the past 12 months with a buy/sell ratio above 3:1 — a sustained pattern of insider confidence.
  • ★Dividend yield of 3.15% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.

Risks

DLTR
  • ⚠FCF yield of 6.1% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 7.9 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 18.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 5.4% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →
DLTR
UNH
Valuation
$1.28B
Free Cash Flow
$13.86B
6.12%
FCF Yield
5.45%
17.77
Trailing P/E
21.18
14.27
Forward P/E
14.08
Quality & Moat
19.17%
ROIC
0.64%
32.63%
ROE
11.85%
36.69%
Gross Margin
18.53%
N/A
PEG Ratio
N/A
Balance Sheet Safety
1.88
Debt / Equity
0.82
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
2.74
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.54
N/A
Dividend Yield
3.15%
DLTR: 5Ties: 2UNH: 3
DLTRUNH

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →
DLTR

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →
DLTR
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-2.75B
Δ Market Cap
$-10.47B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →
DLTR
18.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 18.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $105.56
Fair Value: $128.78
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
4.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 4.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $280.44
Fair Value: $294.90
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →
DLTR

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $106?

+8.6%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +8.6%

The market implies +8.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $280?

+11.1%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +9.2%

The market implies +11.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →
DLTR
69/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UNH
64/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →
DLTR
-2.94
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →
DLTR
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 110.0%
No. of Institutional Holders1,169
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.8%Institutions 84.2%Retail & Other 14.9%
No. of Institutional Holders4,244
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →
DLTR
0
Buys (3M)
4
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $2.16M
GLENDINNING STEWART F
Chief Financial Officer
$342,130
@ $97.75 · 2025-09-08
MAHESHWARI ADITYA
Officer
$59,899
@ $98.20 · 2025-06-18
GLENDINNING STEWART F
Chief Financial Officer
$1.24M
@ $72.75 · 2025-04-15
DOUGLAS WILLIAM W III
Director
$520,822
@ $69.44 · 2025-04-03
HEINRICH DANIEL J
Director
$150,194
@ $68.27 · 2024-09-06
DAVIS JEFFREY A.
Chief Financial Officer
$244,794
@ $136.00 · 2024-04-01
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
5
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $31.61M
REX JOHN F
President
$5.00M
@ $291.12 · 2025-05-16
HEMSLEY STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$25.02M
@ $288.57 · 2025-05-16
GIL KRISTEN
Director
$1.00M
@ $271.17 · 2025-05-15
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
Director
$491,786
@ $320.80 · 2025-05-14
NOSEWORTHY JOHN H
Director
$93,647
@ $312.16 · 2025-05-14
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
Director
$511,575
@ $511.57 · 2025-01-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →
DLTR
1
Sells (3M)
9
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $2.68M
AFLATOONI ROBERT
Chief Technology Officer
$22,956
@ $131.18 · 2026-01-07
BEEBE BRENT A
Officer
$274,230
@ $124.65 · 2025-12-08
AFLATOONI ROBERT
Chief Technology Officer
$119,328
@ $94.70 · 2025-10-17
STAHL STEPHANIE P
Director
$118,878
@ $100.32 · 2025-09-05
AFLATOONI ROBERT
Chief Technology Officer
$17,070
@ $97.54 · 2025-06-20
MCNEELY RICHARD L.
Officer
$1.99M
@ $94.62 · 2025-06-06
MAHESHWARI ADITYA
Officer
$92,485
@ $74.71 · 2025-04-14
LEIKEN JONATHAN B
Officer
$13,374
@ $75.56 · 2025-04-01
CREEDON MICHAEL C JR
Chief Executive Officer
$31,162
@ $75.45 · 2025-04-01
AFLATOONI ROBERT
Officer
$87,315
@ $105.58 · 2024-06-25
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
0
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $179,645
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
Chief Executive Officer
$179,645
@ $305.00 · 2025-06-10
MCSWEENEY ERIN L
Officer
$438,987
@ $626.23 · 2024-11-11
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →
DLTR
FearGreed
😨Fear(35/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😨Fear(37/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →
DLTR
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (35)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (37)
View DLTR Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis