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Dollar General Corporation (DG) vs Morgan Stanley (MS)

DG
Dollar General Corporation
$123.45
VS
MS
Morgan Stanley
$158.55

Rewards

DG
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.15 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
MS
  • ★Gross margin of 87.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $6.65 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.75 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.

Risks

DG
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 7.0 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 7.8% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
  • ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 4.5x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
MS
  • ⚠High leverage (4.56x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠7 insider sales totaling $25.2M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

Key Valuation Metrics

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DG
MS
Valuation
$2.13B
Free Cash Flow
N/A
7.83%
FCF Yield
N/A
18.02
Trailing P/E
15.53
15.43
Forward P/E
12.89
Quality & Moat
7.74%
ROIC
3.43%
17.77%
ROE
14.42%
30.66%
Gross Margin
87.06%
0.15
PEG Ratio
0.75
Balance Sheet Safety
1.85
Debt / Equity
4.56
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
4.49
Net Debt / EBITDA
N/A
1.91%
Dividend Yield
2.52%
DG: 4Ties: 1MS: 4
DGMS

Historical Fundamentals

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DG

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

MS

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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DG
$-7.47
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$3.67B
Δ Market Cap
$-27.44B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
MS
$6.65
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$20.84B
Δ Market Cap
+$138.59B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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DG
112.6% Overvalued
Price is 112.6% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $123.45
Fair Value: $58.07
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
MS
45.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 45.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $158.55
Fair Value: $290.92
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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DG

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $123?

+16.1%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +7.5%

The market implies +16.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +7.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

MS

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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DG
55/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
MS
32/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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DG
-2.72
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
MS
-2.09
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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DG
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 100.6%
No. of Institutional Holders1,578
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
MS
Insiders 24.0%Institutions 62.7%Retail & Other 13.3%
No. of Institutional Holders3,182
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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DG
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
BRYANT WARREN F
Director
$80,825
@ $80.83 · 2024-09-10
BRYANT WARREN F
Director
$40,200
@ $80.40 · 2024-09-05
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
MS
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $5,630
PETERSON DOUGLAS L
Director
$5,630
@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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DG
0
Sells (3M)
10
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $9.29M
WHEELER BRYAN D
Officer
$1.32M
@ $135.32 · 2025-12-19
TAYLOR RHONDA M
General Counsel
$1.01M
@ $134.89 · 2025-12-16
WEST RODERICK J
Officer
$304,316
@ $133.35 · 2025-12-16
ELLIOTT ANITA C
Officer
$333,424
@ $132.52 · 2025-12-12
WENKOFF CARMAN R
Chief Technology Officer
$2.53M
@ $132.01 · 2025-12-11
HERRMANN TRACEY N
Officer
$2.21M
@ $126.82 · 2025-12-11
REARDON KATHLEEN A
Officer
$558,028
@ $126.97 · 2025-12-08
TAYLOR EMILY C
Officer
$222,501
@ $113.00 · 2025-06-17
REARDON KATHLEEN A
Officer
$718,229
@ $111.56 · 2025-06-12
TAYLOR EMILY C
Officer
$76,627
@ $94.72 · 2025-04-04
TAYLOR EMILY C
Officer
$367,061
@ $77.44 · 2024-12-13
REARDON KATHLEEN A
Officer
$296,241
@ $82.68 · 2024-12-10
DECKARD STEVEN R
Officer
$174,195
@ $86.66 · 2024-09-18
WEST RODERICK J
Officer
$208,960
@ $83.25 · 2024-09-12
SANTANA RALPH E
Director
$468,567
@ $155.72 · 2024-04-11
WENKOFF CARMAN R
Chief Technology Officer
$958,616
@ $162.23 · 2024-04-04
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
MS
7
Sells (3M)
16
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $62.45M
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$6.02M
@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$3.97M
@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.44M
@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20
YESHAYA SHARON
Chief Financial Officer
$2.94M
@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$1.55M
@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$3.69M
@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$5.57M
@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20
PICK EDWARD N.
Chief Executive Officer
$16.43M
@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.69M
@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.09M
@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$2.81M
@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.53M
@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$3.70M
@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$95,459
@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.80M
@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.12M
@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.15M
@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.78M
@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$5.00M
@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21
AKRAM RAJA
Chief Financial Officer
$2.38M
@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.52M
@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.20M
@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$368,375
@ $105.25 · 2024-07-26
AKRAM RAJA
Officer
$797,764
@ $106.37 · 2024-07-18
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.26M
@ $106.54 · 2024-07-17
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$106,621
@ $106.62 · 2024-07-17
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$692,663
@ $99.61 · 2024-05-14
GORMAN JAMES P
Officer and Director
$9.02M
@ $90.21 · 2024-04-18
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$1.01M
@ $90.09 · 2024-04-17
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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DG
FearGreed
😨Fear(40/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
MS
FearGreed
😐Neutral(48/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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DG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (40)
MS
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (48)
View DG Full AnalysisView MS Full Analysis