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Dollar General Corporation (DG) vs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, DG is overvalued at $113, with a DCF intrinsic value of $90 and a margin of safety of -27%. GS is undervalued at $1097, with an intrinsic value of $2507 and a margin of safety of 56%. Of the two, GS has the wider margin of safety.

Dollar General Corporation

$113.45

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

$1096.56

Rewards

★Free cash flow has grown at a 78.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.

★Gross margin of 82.3% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Share count has been reduced by 11% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.58 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

⚠FCF yield of 7.5% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
⚠High leverage (1.63x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 4.3x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.

⚠Trailing P/E of 20.0x is 36% above the historical average of 14.7x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.25 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
⚠7 insider sales totaling $35.6M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

Key Valuation Metrics

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Valuation

$1.88B

Free Cash Flow

N/A

7.52%

FCF Yield

N/A

16.02

Trailing P/E

20.03

14.18

Forward P/E

16.71

Quality & Moat

8.17%

ROIC

1.95%

18.91%

ROE

14.55%

30.83%

Gross Margin

82.27%

1.65

PEG Ratio

1.68

Balance Sheet Safety

1.63

Net Debt / Equity

Net cash

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

4.26

Net Debt / EBITDA

N/A

2.07%

Dividend Yield

1.65%

DG: 5Ties: 2GS: 2

DGGS

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$-1.75

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$2.74B

Δ Market Cap

$-4.80B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

$5.60

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$26.00B

Δ Market Cap

+$145.60B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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26.5% Overvalued

Price is 26.5% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $113.45

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $89.68

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

56.3% Margin of Safety

Price is 56.3% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $1096.56

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $2506.96

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $113?

+11.3%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +8.3%

The market implies +11.3% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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47/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

65/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.75

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

-2.00

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 0.3%Institutions 102.2%

No. of Institutional Holders1,571

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insiders 0.5%Institutions 74.6%Retail & Other 24.8%

No. of Institutional Holders3,780

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

BRYANT WARREN F

Director

$80,825

@ $80.83 · 2024-09-10

BRYANT WARREN F

Director

$40,200

@ $80.40 · 2024-09-05

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

HESS JOHN B JR.

Director

$2.00M

@ $511.68 · 2025-04-15

JOHNSON KEVIN RONALD

Director

$1.49M

@ $619.02 · 2025-01-17

FLAHERTY MARK A

Director

$29,545

@ $360.30 · 2024-09-27

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $8.27M

WHEELER BRYAN D

Officer

$1.32M

@ $135.32 · 2025-12-19

TAYLOR RHONDA M

General Counsel

$1.01M

@ $134.89 · 2025-12-16

WEST RODERICK J

Officer

$304,316

@ $133.35 · 2025-12-16

ELLIOTT ANITA C

Officer

$333,424

@ $132.52 · 2025-12-12

WENKOFF CARMAN R

Chief Technology Officer

$2.53M

@ $132.01 · 2025-12-11

HERRMANN TRACEY N

Officer

$2.21M

@ $126.82 · 2025-12-11

REARDON KATHLEEN A

Officer

$558,028

@ $126.97 · 2025-12-08

TAYLOR EMILY C

Officer

$222,501

@ $113.00 · 2025-06-17

REARDON KATHLEEN A

Officer

$718,229

@ $111.56 · 2025-06-12

TAYLOR EMILY C

Officer

$76,627

@ $94.72 · 2025-04-04

TAYLOR EMILY C

Officer

$367,061

@ $77.44 · 2024-12-13

REARDON KATHLEEN A

Officer

$296,241

@ $82.68 · 2024-12-10

DECKARD STEVEN R

Officer

$174,195

@ $86.66 · 2024-09-18

WEST RODERICK J

Officer

$208,960

@ $83.25 · 2024-09-12

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $92.56M

COLEMAN DENIS P.

Chief Financial Officer

$6.68M

@ $973.55 · 2026-05-14

RUEMMLER KATHRYN H

General Counsel

$13.42M

@ $939.07 · 2026-05-06

FREDMAN SHEARA J.

Officer

$9.57M

@ $929.17 · 2026-05-01

RUEMMLER KATHRYN H

General Counsel

$634,927

@ $929.61 · 2026-05-01

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$3.23M

@ $930.70 · 2026-05-01

GOLTEN ALEXANDER SIMON

Officer

$1.04M

@ $936.18 · 2026-04-23

GOLTEN ALEXANDER SIMON

Officer

$1.02M

@ $919.19 · 2026-04-17

COLEMAN DENIS P.

Chief Financial Officer

$10.94M

@ $941.57 · 2026-02-09

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$255,387

@ $938.92 · 2026-01-29

HALIO CAREY

Officer

$2.64M

@ $927.17 · 2026-01-27

FREDMAN SHEARA J.

Officer

$4.49M

@ $923.75 · 2026-01-23

RUEMMLER KATHRYN H

General Counsel

$8.89M

@ $927.51 · 2026-01-23

HALIO CAREY

Officer

$1.62M

@ $920.62 · 2026-01-23

WALDRON JOHN E.

President

$13.69M

@ $750.30 · 2025-08-28

COLEMAN DENIS P.

Chief Financial Officer

$5.41M

@ $724.40 · 2025-07-25

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$4.71M

@ $712.31 · 2025-07-23

ROGERS JOHN F W

Officer

$4.31M

@ $717.39 · 2025-07-23

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$3.04M

@ $607.17 · 2025-05-14

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$1.50M

@ $622.15 · 2025-02-26

GOLTEN ALEXANDER SIMON

Officer

$3.31M

@ $636.25 · 2025-01-28

HALIO CAREY

Officer and Treasurer

$2.32M

@ $636.74 · 2025-01-24

FREDMAN SHEARA J.

Officer

$1.28M

@ $627.01 · 2025-01-21

RUEMMLER KATHRYN H

General Counsel

$4.76M

@ $634.69 · 2025-01-21

HALIO CAREY

Officer

$965,120

@ $624.67 · 2025-01-21

VINIAR DAVID A

Director

$3.06M

@ $612.08 · 2024-11-29

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$4.00M

@ $610.91 · 2024-11-29

FREDMAN SHEARA J.

Officer

$1.77M

@ $594.51 · 2024-11-06

COLEMAN DENIS P.

Chief Financial Officer

$7.67M

@ $593.03 · 2024-11-06

ROGERS JOHN F W

Officer

$3.83M

@ $596.36 · 2024-11-06

SOLOMON DAVID M

Chief Executive Officer

$3.00M

@ $500.29 · 2024-08-15

VINIAR DAVID A

Director

$2.51M

@ $502.43 · 2024-07-16

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😨Fear(40/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

😏Greed(66/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (40)

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (66)

View DG Full Analysis View GS Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: DG vs GS

Is Dollar General Corporation or The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, GS trades at a 56.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $2507 vs. price $1097), compared to DG's -26.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $90 vs. $113).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Dollar General Corporation or The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.?▼

GS scores 65/100 (Narrow moat), while DG scores 47/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. in financial distress?▼

GS's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. DG scores 2.5 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Dollar General Corporation or The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.?▼

DG earns 8.2% ROIC versus GS's 1.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Dollar General Corporation's or The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s?▼

DG's dividend earns a safety score of 85/100 (Very Safe), compared to GS's 79/100 (Safe). DG has raised its dividend for 0 consecutive years.