Chevron Corporation (CVX) vs NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, CVX is overvalued at $236, with a DCF intrinsic value of $148 and a margin of safety of -60%. NEE is overvalued at $84, with an intrinsic value of $22 and a margin of safety of -281%. Of the two, CVX has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Gross margin of 60.2% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.56 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Trailing P/E of 15.1x is 41% below the historical average of 25.7x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 11.0 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $80.5M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠NextEra Energy, Inc. scores only 24/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
- ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 8.1x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.12 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
No durable moat detected, though margin stability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: CVX vs NEE
Is Chevron Corporation or NextEra Energy, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, CVX trades at a -59.5% margin of safety (intrinsic value $148 vs. price $236), compared to NEE's -281.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $22 vs. $84).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Chevron Corporation or NextEra Energy, Inc.?▼
CVX scores 43/100 (Narrow moat), while NEE scores 24/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is NextEra Energy, Inc. in financial distress?▼
NEE's Altman Z-Score of 1.1 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. CVX scores 3.0 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Chevron Corporation or NextEra Energy, Inc.?▼
CVX earns 13.8% ROIC versus NEE's 4.0%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Chevron Corporation's or NextEra Energy, Inc.'s?▼
NEE's dividend earns a safety score of 54/100 (Borderline), compared to CVX's 30/100 (Unsafe). NEE has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.