CSX Corporation (CSX) vs Morgan Stanley (MS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, CSX is overvalued at $46, with a DCF intrinsic value of $37 and a margin of safety of -24%. MS is undervalued at $223, with an intrinsic value of $298 and a margin of safety of 25%. Of the two, MS has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★CSX Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Gross margin of 87.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Morgan Stanley scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.56 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.0% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 28.0x is 50% above the historical average of 18.7x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.14 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 20.2x is 26% above the historical average of 16.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.66 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $46?
The market implies +15.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +22.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: CSX vs MS
Is CSX Corporation or Morgan Stanley more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, MS trades at a 25.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $298 vs. price $223), compared to CSX's -24.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $37 vs. $46).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, CSX Corporation or Morgan Stanley?▼
MS scores 80/100 (Wide moat), while CSX scores 69/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Morgan Stanley in financial distress?▼
MS's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. CSX scores 2.3 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, CSX Corporation or Morgan Stanley?▼
CSX earns 12.2% ROIC versus MS's 3.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, CSX Corporation's or Morgan Stanley's?▼
CSX's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MS's 79/100 (Safe). CSX has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.