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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs Target Corporation (TGT): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, COST is overvalued at $952, with a DCF intrinsic value of $452 and a margin of safety of -111%. TGT is undervalued at $144, with an intrinsic value of $58949006446 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, TGT has the wider margin of safety.

COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
$951.89
VS
TGT
Target Corporation
$144.49

Rewards

COST
  • ★Costco Wholesale Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Costco Wholesale Corporation scores 96/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 30.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
TGT
  • ★Target Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Target Corporation scores 78/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

COST
  • ⚠Gross margin of 12.9% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 1.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
TGT
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.68 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $2.2M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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COST
TGT
Valuation
$6.95B
Free Cash Flow
$3.14B
1.65%
FCF Yield
N/A
47.86
Trailing P/E
19.09
42.03
Forward P/E
16.15
Quality & Moat
31.32%
ROIC
10.65%
29.15%
ROE
22.02%
12.88%
Gross Margin
28.14%
4.62
PEG Ratio
2.68
Balance Sheet Safety
Net cash
Net Debt / Equity
0.96
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
-0.07
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.89
0.62%
Dividend Yield
3.21%
COST: 5Ties: 1TGT: 5
COSTTGT

Historical Fundamentals

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COST

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

TGT

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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COST
$19.41
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$9.28B
Δ Market Cap
+$180.14B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
TGT
$0.00
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Destroyer
Σ Retained
$5.82B
Δ Market Cap
+$2.07
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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COST
110.8% Overvalued
Price is 110.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $951.89
Fair Value: $451.66
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
TGT
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $144.49
Fair Value: $58949006445.61
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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COST

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $952?

+20.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +22.9%

The market implies +20.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +22.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

TGT

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $144?

-14.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -12.1%

The market implies -14.7% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -12.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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COST
96/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
TGT
78/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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COST
-2.65
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
TGT
-2.33
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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COST
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 73.8%Retail & Other 26.0%
No. of Institutional Holders5,145
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
TGT
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 87.6%Retail & Other 12.2%
No. of Institutional Holders2,385
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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COST
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
TGT
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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COST
1
Sells (3M)
12
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $15.13M
DENMAN KENNETH D
Director
$847,345
@ $957.45 · 2026-06-23
FRATES CATON
Officer
$695,100
@ $993.00 · 2026-04-01
ADAMO CLAUDINE
Officer
$732,205
@ $1003.02 · 2026-03-09
JONES TERESA A
Officer
$838,318
@ $986.26 · 2026-01-21
DECKER SUSAN LYNNE
Director
$437,390
@ $955.00 · 2026-01-16
KLAUER JAMES C
Officer
$1.41M
@ $939.00 · 2026-01-14
POLIT JAVIER
Officer
$2.26M
@ $866.38 · 2025-12-30
WILCOX WILLIAM RICHARD
Officer
$2.23M
@ $930.13 · 2025-11-07
ADAMO CLAUDINE
Officer
$2.53M
@ $935.68 · 2025-10-24
BARBRE TIFFANY MARIE
Divisional Officer
$1.16M
@ $934.91 · 2025-10-24
FRATES CATON
Officer
$1.40M
@ $910.02 · 2025-09-29
JONES TERESA A
Officer
$595,230
@ $992.05 · 2025-08-20
RUBANENKO YORAM B.
Officer
$3.90M
@ $974.96 · 2025-07-14
DECKER SUSAN LYNNE
Director
$536,058
@ $980.00 · 2025-06-18
CALLANS PATRICK J
Officer
$3.01M
@ $1002.77 · 2025-06-09
RIEL PIERRE
Officer
$2.03M
@ $1014.15 · 2025-06-06
KLAUER JAMES C
Officer
$3.92M
@ $981.07 · 2025-04-17
MILLERCHIP GARY
Officer
$1.03M
@ $940.01 · 2025-03-27
ADAMO CLAUDINE
Officer
$830,304
@ $922.56 · 2025-03-24
FRATES CATON
Officer
$765,213
@ $900.25 · 2025-03-18
VACHRIS ROLAND MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$3.35M
@ $931.00 · 2025-03-11
GALANTI RICHARD ALAN
Officer and Director
$1.27M
@ $894.97 · 2024-10-24
JONES TERESA A
Officer
$717,236
@ $896.54 · 2024-10-23
RIEL PIERRE
Officer
$1.79M
@ $896.71 · 2024-10-15
FRATES CATON
Officer
$1.50M
@ $883.35 · 2024-09-30
CALLANS PATRICK J
Officer
$2.23M
@ $893.94 · 2024-09-30
ADAMO CLAUDINE
Officer
$2.84M
@ $888.99 · 2024-09-30
DECKER SUSAN LYNNE
Director
$543,430
@ $876.50 · 2024-08-15
GALANTI RICHARD ALAN
Officer and Director
$868,962
@ $868.96 · 2024-08-15
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
TGT
2
Sells (3M)
4
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $2.71M
ROATH LISA R
Officer
$966,490
@ $138.07 · 2026-06-29
SYLVESTER CARA A
Officer
$1.26M
@ $125.89 · 2026-05-29
LIEGEL MATTHEW A
Officer
$240,593
@ $117.19 · 2026-03-17
LIEGEL MATTHEW A
Officer
$240,593
@ $117.19 · 2026-03-17
LIEGEL MATTHEW A
Officer
$206,245
@ $100.90 · 2025-06-10
LIEGEL MATTHEW A
Officer
$32,580
@ $113.52 · 2025-03-07
GOMEZ RICHARD H
Officer
$997,715
@ $157.17 · 2024-09-27
LIEGEL MATTHEW A
Officer
$153,130
@ $153.13 · 2024-08-30
LIU DON H
Officer
$1.00M
@ $160.00 · 2024-08-22
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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COST
FearGreed
😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
TGT
FearGreed
😏Greed(69/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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COST
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
TGT
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (69)
View COST Full AnalysisView TGT Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: COST vs TGT

Is Costco Wholesale Corporation or Target Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, TGT trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $58949006446 vs. price $144), compared to COST's -110.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $452 vs. $952).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Costco Wholesale Corporation or Target Corporation?▼

COST scores 96/100 (Wide moat), while TGT scores 78/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Target Corporation in financial distress?▼

TGT's Altman Z-Score of 2.2 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. COST scores 9.2 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Costco Wholesale Corporation or Target Corporation?▼

COST earns 31.3% ROIC versus TGT's 10.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Costco Wholesale Corporation's or Target Corporation's?▼

COST's dividend earns a safety score of 85/100 (Very Safe), compared to TGT's 69/100 (Safe). COST has raised its dividend for 0 consecutive years.