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Compare Stocks › COST vs TGT

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs Target Corporation (TGT)

COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
$974.78
VS
TGT
Target Corporation
$114.47

Rewards

COST
  • ★Costco Wholesale Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Costco Wholesale Corporation scores 96/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 30.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
TGT
  • ★Target Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Target Corporation scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

COST
  • ⚠Gross margin of 12.9% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 1.5% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
TGT

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    COST
    TGT
    Valuation
    $6.69B
    Free Cash Flow
    $2.59B
    1.55%
    FCF Yield
    5.00%
    50.74
    Trailing P/E
    14.08
    43.44
    Forward P/E
    13.45
    Quality & Moat
    20.95%
    ROIC
    11.15%
    25.24%
    ROE
    22.92%
    12.93%
    Gross Margin
    27.93%
    3.65
    PEG Ratio
    N/A
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.26
    Debt / Equity
    1.26
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    -0.74
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.83
    0.53%
    Dividend Yield
    3.96%
    COST: 5Ties: 1TGT: 5
    COSTTGT

    Historical Fundamentals

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    COST

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    TGT

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    COST
    $19.41
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $9.28B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$180.14B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    TGT
    $-2.36
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $5.82B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-13.73B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    COST
    111.3% Overvalued
    Price is 111.3% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $974.78
    Fair Value: $461.37
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    TGT
    12.2% Margin of Safety
    Price is 12.2% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $114.47
    Fair Value: $130.31
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    COST

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $975?

    +20.8%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +23.4%

    The market implies +20.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +23.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    TGT

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $114?

    +6.3%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +11.1%

    The market implies +6.3% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding +11.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    Economic Moat Score

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    COST
    96/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    TGT
    80/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    COST
    -2.65
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    TGT
    -2.33
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    COST
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 72.7%Retail & Other 27.2%
    No. of Institutional Holders4,997
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    TGT
    Insiders 0.3%Institutions 86.1%Retail & Other 13.6%
    No. of Institutional Holders2,240
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    COST
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    TGT
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    COST
    5
    Sells (3M)
    17
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $28.85M
    ADAMO CLAUDINE
    Officer
    $732,205
    @ $1003.02 · 2026-03-09
    JONES TERESA A
    Officer
    $838,318
    @ $986.26 · 2026-01-21
    DECKER SUSAN LYNNE
    Director
    $437,390
    @ $955.00 · 2026-01-16
    KLAUER JAMES C
    Officer
    $1.41M
    @ $939.00 · 2026-01-14
    POLIT JAVIER
    Officer
    $2.26M
    @ $866.38 · 2025-12-30
    WILCOX WILLIAM RICHARD
    Officer
    $2.23M
    @ $930.13 · 2025-11-07
    ADAMO CLAUDINE
    Officer
    $2.53M
    @ $935.68 · 2025-10-24
    BARBRE TIFFANY MARIE
    Divisional Officer
    $1.16M
    @ $934.91 · 2025-10-24
    FRATES CATON
    Officer
    $1.40M
    @ $910.02 · 2025-09-29
    JONES TERESA A
    Officer
    $595,230
    @ $992.05 · 2025-08-20
    RUBANENKO YORAM B.
    Officer
    $3.90M
    @ $974.96 · 2025-07-14
    DECKER SUSAN LYNNE
    Director
    $536,058
    @ $980.00 · 2025-06-18
    CALLANS PATRICK J
    Officer
    $3.01M
    @ $1002.77 · 2025-06-09
    RIEL PIERRE
    Officer
    $2.03M
    @ $1014.15 · 2025-06-06
    KLAUER JAMES C
    Officer
    $3.92M
    @ $981.07 · 2025-04-17
    MILLERCHIP GARY
    Officer
    $1.03M
    @ $940.01 · 2025-03-27
    ADAMO CLAUDINE
    Officer
    $830,304
    @ $922.56 · 2025-03-24
    FRATES CATON
    Officer
    $765,213
    @ $900.25 · 2025-03-18
    VACHRIS ROLAND MICHAEL
    Chief Executive Officer
    $3.35M
    @ $931.00 · 2025-03-11
    GALANTI RICHARD ALAN
    Officer and Director
    $1.27M
    @ $894.97 · 2024-10-24
    JONES TERESA A
    Officer
    $717,236
    @ $896.54 · 2024-10-23
    RIEL PIERRE
    Officer
    $1.79M
    @ $896.71 · 2024-10-15
    CALLANS PATRICK J
    Officer
    $2.23M
    @ $893.94 · 2024-09-30
    ADAMO CLAUDINE
    Officer
    $2.84M
    @ $888.99 · 2024-09-30
    FRATES CATON
    Officer
    $1.50M
    @ $883.35 · 2024-09-30
    DECKER SUSAN LYNNE
    Director
    $543,430
    @ $876.50 · 2024-08-15
    GALANTI RICHARD ALAN
    Officer and Director
    $868,962
    @ $868.96 · 2024-08-15
    JONES TERESA A
    Officer
    $3,330
    @ $832.50 · 2024-07-25
    DENMAN KENNETH D
    Director
    $298,036
    @ $851.53 · 2024-07-15
    HINES DANIEL M
    Officer
    $2.54M
    @ $846.37 · 2024-07-15
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    TGT
    0
    Sells (3M)
    1
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $206,245
    LIEGEL MATTHEW A
    Officer
    $206,245
    @ $100.90 · 2025-06-10
    LIEGEL MATTHEW A
    Officer
    $32,580
    @ $113.52 · 2025-03-07
    GOMEZ RICHARD H
    Officer
    $997,715
    @ $157.17 · 2024-09-27
    LIEGEL MATTHEW A
    Officer
    $153,130
    @ $153.13 · 2024-08-30
    LIU DON H
    Officer
    $1.00M
    @ $160.00 · 2024-08-22
    HENNINGTON CHRISTINA
    Officer
    $786,048
    @ $170.88 · 2024-03-21
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    COST
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(56/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    TGT
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(57/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    COST
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
    TGT
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (57)
    View COST Full AnalysisView TGT Full Analysis