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Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, COF is undervalued at $205, with a DCF intrinsic value of $261 and a margin of safety of 21%. UNH is overvalued at $407, with an intrinsic value of $367 and a margin of safety of -11%. Of the two, COF has the wider margin of safety.

COF
Capital One Financial Corporation
$204.85
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$406.97

Rewards

COF
  • ★Capital One Financial Corporation scores 75/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 26.6% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Trailing P/E of 12.6x is 45% below the historical average of 22.9x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
UNH
  • ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

COF
  • ⚠Gross margin of 0.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Share count has increased by 64% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 20.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 7.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

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COF
UNH
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$26.50B
N/A
FCF Yield
7.25%
12.55
Trailing P/E
23.23
8.55
Forward P/E
17.48
Quality & Moat
29.36%
ROIC
11.51%
9.39%
ROE
15.77%
0.00%
Gross Margin
20.05%
0.18
PEG Ratio
1.03
Balance Sheet Safety
N/A
Net Debt / Equity
0.43
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.58
1.56%
Dividend Yield
2.28%
COF: 4Ties: 1UNH: 3
COFUNH

Historical Fundamentals

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COF

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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COF
$14.50
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$8.00B
Δ Market Cap
+$116.05B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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COF
21.4% Margin of Safety
Price is 21.4% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $204.85
Fair Value: $260.76
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
10.8% Overvalued
Price is 10.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $406.97
Fair Value: $367.30
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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COF

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $407?

+14.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +4.2%

The market implies +14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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COF
75/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UNH
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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COF
-2.27
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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COF
Insiders 1.2%Institutions 90.9%Retail & Other 7.8%
No. of Institutional Holders2,696
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 89.6%Retail & Other 10.1%
No. of Institutional Holders4,333
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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COF
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
ZAMSKY MICHAEL
Officer
$1,972
@ $197.20 · 2025-05-16
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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COF
14
Sells (3M)
43
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $85.47M
FAIRBANK RICHARD D
Chief Executive Officer
$18.41M
@ $202.86 · 2026-10-27
KARAM CELIA EDWARDS
Officer
$377,422
@ $195.86 · 2026-10-15
DEAN LIA
Officer
$369,588
@ $195.86 · 2026-10-15
COOPER MATTHEW W.
General Counsel
$686,770
@ $196.22 · 2026-10-06
DEAN LIA
Officer
$425,741
@ $206.07 · 2026-09-15
KARAM CELIA EDWARDS
Officer
$415,643
@ $206.07 · 2026-09-15
COOPER MATTHEW W.
General Counsel
$749,350
@ $214.10 · 2026-09-01
DEAN LIA
Officer
$494,566
@ $225.52 · 2026-08-17
KARAM CELIA EDWARDS
Officer
$425,782
@ $225.52 · 2026-08-17
MOUADEB MARK DANIEL
Officer
$269,775
@ $225.00 · 2026-08-13
ZAMSKY MICHAEL
Officer
$1.19M
@ $218.02 · 2026-08-10
RAGHU RAVI
Officer
$10,924
@ $218.48 · 2026-08-07
MOUADEB MARK DANIEL
Officer
$260,260
@ $220.00 · 2026-08-04
COOPER MATTHEW W.
General Counsel
$767,655
@ $219.33 · 2026-08-04
MOUADEB MARK DANIEL
Officer
$148,350
@ $215.00 · 2026-08-03
RAGHU RAVI
Officer
$2.04M
@ $209.78 · 2026-07-31
GOLDEN TIMOTHY P.
Officer
$735,757
@ $211.00 · 2026-07-29
COOPER MATTHEW W.
General Counsel
$728,000
@ $208.00 · 2026-07-07
COOPER MATTHEW W.
General Counsel
$641,760
@ $183.36 · 2026-06-02
HAGGERTY KAITLIN
Officer
$262,125
@ $183.82 · 2026-05-13
COOPER MATTHEW W.
General Counsel
$643,755
@ $183.93 · 2026-05-12
KARAM CELIA EDWARDS
Officer
$336,822
@ $192.58 · 2026-05-01
KARAM CELIA EDWARDS
Officer
$203,985
@ $185.61 · 2026-04-01
DEAN LIA
Officer
$314,052
@ $185.61 · 2026-04-01
KARAM CELIA EDWARDS
Officer
$312,476
@ $191.00 · 2026-03-02
DEAN LIA
Officer
$627,244
@ $191.00 · 2026-03-02
MOUADEB MARK DANIEL
Officer
$334,530
@ $210.00 · 2026-02-26
MOUADEB MARK DANIEL
Officer
$305,755
@ $202.62 · 2026-02-25
HANSON JASON P
Officer
$764,445
@ $205.00 · 2026-02-25
BLINDE NEAL A
Officer
$7.27M
@ $190.51 · 2026-02-24
DEAN LIA
Officer
$734,565
@ $223.68 · 2026-02-04
KARAM CELIA EDWARDS
Officer
$460,071
@ $218.25 · 2026-02-02
COOPER MATTHEW W.
General Counsel
$500,000
@ $250.00 · 2026-01-06
RAGHU RAVI
Officer
$3.36M
@ $250.00 · 2026-01-05
KARAM CELIA EDWARDS
Officer
$504,338
@ $244.35 · 2026-01-02
DEAN LIA
Officer
$772,879
@ $244.35 · 2026-01-02
COOPER MATTHEW W.
General Counsel
$443,080
@ $221.54 · 2025-12-02
DEAN LIA
Officer
$713,132
@ $218.15 · 2025-12-01
KARAM CELIA EDWARDS
Officer
$640,488
@ $218.15 · 2025-12-01
LAPRADE FRANK G. III
Officer
$3.96M
@ $222.03 · 2025-11-13
BLINDE NEAL A
Officer
$9.58M
@ $221.83 · 2025-11-06
FAIRBANK RICHARD D
Chief Executive Officer
$22.84M
@ $220.68 · 2025-11-04
COOPER MATTHEW W.
General Counsel
$438,820
@ $219.41 · 2025-11-04
FAIRBANK RICHARD D
Chief Executive Officer
$23.35M
@ $225.68 · 2025-10-27
COOPER MATTHEW W.
General Counsel
$423,980
@ $211.99 · 2025-10-02
COOPER MATTHEW W.
General Counsel
$446,800
@ $223.40 · 2025-09-02
GOLDEN TIMOTHY P.
Officer
$44,590
@ $215.41 · 2025-08-19
GOLDEN TIMOTHY P.
Officer
$727,989
@ $210.28 · 2025-08-12
ZAMSKY MICHAEL
Officer
$1.16M
@ $209.59 · 2025-08-04
ALEXANDER ROBERT M.
Chief Technology Officer
$2.30M
@ $227.86 · 2025-07-23
HACKETT ANN FRITZ
Director
$329,445
@ $198.70 · 2025-05-12
ZAMSKY MICHAEL
Officer
$1.91M
@ $199.40 · 2025-05-12
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
2
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $944,910
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$455,910
@ $390.00 · 2026-08-21
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$205,000
@ $410.00 · 2026-08-05
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$284,000
@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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COF
FearGreed
😐Neutral(50/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😏Greed(62/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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COF
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (50)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (62)
View COF Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: COF vs UNH

Is Capital One Financial Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, COF trades at a 21.4% margin of safety (intrinsic value $261 vs. price $205), compared to UNH's -10.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $367 vs. $407).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Capital One Financial Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

COF scores 75/100 (Wide moat), while UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Capital One Financial Corporation in financial distress?▼

COF's Altman Z-Score of 0.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNH scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Capital One Financial Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

COF earns 29.4% ROIC versus UNH's 11.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Capital One Financial Corporation's or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

UNH's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to COF's 75/100 (Safe). UNH has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

COF vs UNH: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io