Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) vs Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, COF is undervalued at $204, with a DCF intrinsic value of $408 and a margin of safety of 50%. MA is fairly valued at $566, with an intrinsic value of $562 and a margin of safety of -1%. Of the two, COF has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Capital One Financial Corporation scores 75/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 26.6% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Trailing P/E of 11.3x is 51% below the historical average of 22.9x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
- ★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
- ⚠Gross margin of 0.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Share count has increased by 64% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠High leverage (2.33x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠13 insider sales totaling $62.1M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $566?
The market implies +14.9% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +13.2%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: COF vs MA
Is Capital One Financial Corporation or Mastercard Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, COF trades at a 50.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $408 vs. price $204), compared to MA's -0.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $562 vs. $566).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Capital One Financial Corporation or Mastercard Incorporated?▼
MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while COF scores 75/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Capital One Financial Corporation in financial distress?▼
COF's Altman Z-Score of 0.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MA scores 10.6 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Capital One Financial Corporation or Mastercard Incorporated?▼
MA earns 56.0% ROIC versus COF's 26.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Capital One Financial Corporation's or Mastercard Incorporated's?▼
MA's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to COF's 75/100 (Safe). MA has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.