Compare Stocks › COF vs LLY

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, COF is undervalued at $202, with a DCF intrinsic value of $555 and a margin of safety of 64%. LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with an intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. Of the two, COF has the wider margin of safety.

COF

Capital One Financial Corporation

$201.53

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

$1098.57

Rewards

COF

★Capital One Financial Corporation scores 75/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Free cash flow has grown at a 26.6% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★PEG ratio of 0.21 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.

LLY

★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

COF

⚠Gross margin of 0.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠Share count has increased by 64% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.

LLY

⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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COF

LLY

Valuation

N/A

Free Cash Flow

$9.16B

N/A

FCF Yield

0.93%

62.01

Trailing P/E

39.00

8.30

Forward P/E

24.69

Quality & Moat

14.68%

ROIC

37.80%

3.26%

ROE

107.46%

0.00%

Gross Margin

82.83%

0.21

PEG Ratio

1.50

Balance Sheet Safety

N/A

Net Debt / Equity

1.22

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

1.05

1.60%

Dividend Yield

0.56%

COF: 3Ties: 1LLY: 4

COFLLY

Historical Fundamentals

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COF

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

LLY

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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COF

$14.50

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$8.00B

Δ Market Cap

+$116.05B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

LLY

$27.49

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$22.34B

Δ Market Cap

+$614.01B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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COF

63.7% Margin of Safety

Price is 63.7% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $201.53

Strongly undervalued

Fairly valued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $555.46

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

LLY

3.9% Margin of Safety

Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $1098.57

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $1143.11

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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COF

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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COF

75/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

LLY

73/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

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COF

-2.27

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

LLY

-1.83

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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COF

Insiders 1.9%Institutions 88.1%Retail & Other 10.0%

No. of Institutional Holders2,622

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

LLY

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%

No. of Institutional Holders5,580

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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COF

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

ZAMSKY MICHAEL

Officer

$1,972

@ $197.20 · 2025-05-16

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

LLY

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $4.54M

MONTARCE LUCAS E

Chief Financial Officer

$494,627

@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15

VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.

Officer

$647,360

@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13

ALVAREZ RALPH

Director

$500,473

@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13

FYRWALD J. ERIK

Director

$1.01M

@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12

RICKS DAVID A

Chief Executive Officer

$1.05M

@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12

SKOVRONSKY DANIEL

Officer

$634,405

@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12

SULZBERGER GABRIELLE

Director

$75,018

@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12

JACKSON JAMERE

Director

$127,913

@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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COF

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $85.42M

COOPER MATTHEW W.

General Counsel

$641,760

@ $183.36 · 2026-06-02

HAGGERTY KAITLIN

Officer

$262,125

@ $183.82 · 2026-05-13

COOPER MATTHEW W.

General Counsel

$643,755

@ $183.93 · 2026-05-12

KARAM CELIA EDWARDS

Officer

$336,822

@ $192.58 · 2026-05-01

DEAN LIA

Officer

$314,052

@ $185.61 · 2026-04-01

KARAM CELIA EDWARDS

Officer

$203,985

@ $185.61 · 2026-04-01

DEAN LIA

Officer

$627,244

@ $191.00 · 2026-03-02

KARAM CELIA EDWARDS

Officer

$312,476

@ $191.00 · 2026-03-02

MOUADEB MARK DANIEL

Officer

$334,530

@ $210.00 · 2026-02-26

MOUADEB MARK DANIEL

Officer

$305,755

@ $202.62 · 2026-02-25

HANSON JASON P

Officer

$764,445

@ $205.00 · 2026-02-25

BLINDE NEAL A

Officer

$7.27M

@ $190.51 · 2026-02-24

DEAN LIA

Officer

$734,565

@ $223.68 · 2026-02-04

KARAM CELIA EDWARDS

Officer

$460,071

@ $218.25 · 2026-02-02

COOPER MATTHEW W.

General Counsel

$500,000

@ $250.00 · 2026-01-06

RAGHU RAVI

Officer

$3.36M

@ $250.00 · 2026-01-05

DEAN LIA

Officer

$772,879

@ $244.35 · 2026-01-02

KARAM CELIA EDWARDS

Officer

$504,338

@ $244.35 · 2026-01-02

COOPER MATTHEW W.

General Counsel

$443,080

@ $221.54 · 2025-12-02

DEAN LIA

Officer

$713,132

@ $218.15 · 2025-12-01

KARAM CELIA EDWARDS

Officer

$640,488

@ $218.15 · 2025-12-01

LAPRADE FRANK G. III

Officer

$3.96M

@ $222.03 · 2025-11-13

BLINDE NEAL A

Officer

$9.58M

@ $221.83 · 2025-11-06

FAIRBANK RICHARD D

Chief Executive Officer

$22.84M

@ $220.68 · 2025-11-04

COOPER MATTHEW W.

General Counsel

$438,820

@ $219.41 · 2025-11-04

FAIRBANK RICHARD D

Chief Executive Officer

$23.35M

@ $225.68 · 2025-10-27

COOPER MATTHEW W.

General Counsel

$423,980

@ $211.99 · 2025-10-02

COOPER MATTHEW W.

General Counsel

$446,800

@ $223.40 · 2025-09-02

GOLDEN TIMOTHY P.

Officer

$44,590

@ $215.41 · 2025-08-19

GOLDEN TIMOTHY P.

Officer

$727,989

@ $210.28 · 2025-08-12

ZAMSKY MICHAEL

Officer

$1.16M

@ $209.59 · 2025-08-04

ALEXANDER ROBERT M.

Chief Technology Officer

$2.30M

@ $227.86 · 2025-07-23

HACKETT ANN FRITZ

Director

$329,445

@ $198.70 · 2025-05-12

ZAMSKY MICHAEL

Officer

$1.91M

@ $199.40 · 2025-05-12

ZAMSKY MICHAEL

Officer

$2.01M

@ $190.26 · 2024-11-12

YOUNG ANDREW M

Chief Financial Officer

$1.08M

@ $183.51 · 2024-11-08

WEST KARA

Officer

$133,189

@ $184.73 · 2024-11-07

ALEXANDER ROBERT M.

Chief Technology Officer

$3.11M

@ $187.12 · 2024-11-07

MOUADEB MARK DANIEL

Officer

$323,766

@ $162.37 · 2024-11-05

RAGHU RAVI

Officer

$4.09M

@ $165.00 · 2024-11-05

LAPRADE FRANK G. III

Officer

$2.52M

@ $160.00 · 2024-10-17

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

LLY

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $3.86B

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$2.88M

@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$15.75M

@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$322.38M

@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$1.51M

@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.90M

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$2.85M

@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260,409

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.08M

@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$17.34M

@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$152.06M

@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$111.50M

@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$39.07M

@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$176.10M

@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$62.31M

@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$10.19M

@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$183.33M

@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$1.01M

@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$48.02M

@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$308.41M

@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$279.35M

@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$16.41M

@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$167.09M

@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$38.47M

@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$479,038

@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$266.65M

@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260.17M

@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.16M

@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$9.04M

@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.23M

@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$22.72M

@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$137.04M

@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.22M

@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$92.50M

@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$107.36M

@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$177.29M

@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.79M

@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$18.06M

@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$81.53M

@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$734,930

@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$783,762

@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$225.42M

@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$716,410

@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$936,550

@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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COF

😐Neutral(50/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

LLY

😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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COF

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (50)

LLY

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)

View COF Full Analysis View LLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: COF vs LLY

Is Capital One Financial Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, COF trades at a 63.7% margin of safety (intrinsic value $555 vs. price $202), compared to LLY's 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $1143 vs. $1099).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Capital One Financial Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

COF scores 75/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Capital One Financial Corporation in financial distress?▼

COF's Altman Z-Score of 0.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Capital One Financial Corporation or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus COF's 14.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Capital One Financial Corporation's or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼

COF's dividend earns a safety score of 75/100 (Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). COF has raised its dividend for 0 consecutive years.