Compare Stocks › CMG vs LLY
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$32.94
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$917.50
Rewards
CMG
- ★Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. scores 85/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 19.7% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
LLY
- ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 83.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
CMG
- ⚠PEG ratio of 7.22 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $2.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
LLY
- ⚠FCF yield of 0.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $330.9M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →CMG
LLY
Valuation
$1.45B
Free Cash Flow
$5.96B
3.32%
FCF Yield
0.73%
28.89
Trailing P/E
40.00
24.09
Forward P/E
21.79
Quality & Moat
18.13%
ROIC
32.84%
54.26%
ROE
77.78%
40.10%
Gross Margin
83.04%
7.22
PEG Ratio
0.78
Balance Sheet Safety
1.79
Debt / Equity
1.65
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.69
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.15
N/A
Dividend Yield
0.68%
CMG: 2Ties: 1LLY: 8
CMGLLY
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →CMG
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
LLY
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →CMG
$2.31
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$4.30B
Δ Market Cap
+$9.93B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
LLY
$27.47
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$613.62B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →CMG
28.3% Margin of Safety
Price is 28.3% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $32.94
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $45.93
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
LLY
12.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 12.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $917.50
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $1048.80
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →CMG
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $33?
+13.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +14.5%
The market implies +13.7% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +14.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
LLY
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $918?
+17.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +35.1%
The market implies +17.7% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +35.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →CMG
85/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →CMG
-2.95
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →CMG
Insiders 0.6%Institutions 91.1%Retail & Other 8.3%
No. of Institutional Holders1,841
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 84.7%Retail & Other 15.1%
No. of Institutional Holders5,561
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →CMG
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
GUTIERREZ MAURICIO
Director
$498,200
@ $53.00 · 2025-03-05
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →CMG
2
Sells (3M)
14
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $22.09M
FILI-KRUSHEL PATRICIA D
Director
$122,543
@ $36.58 · 2026-02-24
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
President
$2.44M
@ $40.01 · 2026-02-06
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
President
$2.44M
@ $36.05 · 2025-12-12
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
President
$2.15M
@ $34.67 · 2025-12-01
ESKENAZI ILENE
Officer
$1.15M
@ $43.15 · 2025-08-25
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Officer
$887,108
@ $56.32 · 2025-07-07
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
President
$3.47M
@ $55.14 · 2025-06-25
FILI-KRUSHEL PATRICIA D
Director
$106,147
@ $51.13 · 2025-06-12
HICKENLOOPER ROBIN S.
Director
$115,229
@ $51.21 · 2025-06-12
BOATWRIGHT HENRY SCOTT
Chief Executive Officer
$997,133
@ $52.48 · 2025-06-06
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Officer
$1.21M
@ $52.14 · 2025-06-04
THEODOREDIS ROGER E.
General Counsel
$5.66M
@ $49.70 · 2025-06-02
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
$1.18M
@ $50.84 · 2025-05-21
MCCONNELL JAMIE
Officer
$161,829
@ $52.42 · 2025-05-14
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Officer
$1.03M
@ $49.77 · 2025-03-13
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
$1.10M
@ $52.36 · 2025-02-25
MCCONNELL JAMIE
Officer
$664,426
@ $58.70 · 2025-02-10
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
$902,563
@ $57.31 · 2025-02-07
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
$917,261
@ $58.24 · 2025-01-07
SCHALOW LAURIE
Officer
$1.38M
@ $65.13 · 2024-12-11
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
$1.01M
@ $64.37 · 2024-12-09
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
$2.91M
@ $65.25 · 2024-12-06
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
$920,675
@ $58.46 · 2024-11-07
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
$898,567
@ $57.05 · 2024-10-07
HICKENLOOPER ROBIN S.
Director
$100,924
@ $56.38 · 2024-09-12
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
$866,554
@ $55.02 · 2024-09-11
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
$951,161
@ $54.68 · 2024-08-06
GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III
Chief Technology Officer
$3.07M
@ $50.96 · 2024-07-29
HARTUNG JOHN R
Chief Financial Officer
$8.00M
@ $3249.01 · 2024-06-13
BOATWRIGHT HENRY SCOTT
Chief Operating Officer
$3.51M
@ $3190.16 · 2024-04-26
BRANDT CHRISTOPHER W
Officer
$3.16M
@ $3156.28 · 2024-04-26
NICCOL BRIAN R
Chief Executive Officer
$20.41M
@ $3185.92 · 2024-04-26
THEODOREDIS ROGER E.
General Counsel
$7.94M
@ $3164.44 · 2024-04-26
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
LLY
5
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.84B
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$818,240
@ $818.24 · 2025-03-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$204.33M
@ $928.76 · 2025-03-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →CMG
😨Fear(30/100)
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
LLY
😐Neutral(43/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →CMG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (30)
LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (43)