Compare Stocks › CME vs LLY
CME Group Inc. (CME) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
CME
CME Group Inc.
$310.71
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$917.50
Rewards
CME
- ★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★CME Group Inc. scores 77/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 12.2% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
LLY
- ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 83.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
CME
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.53 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $3.2M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
LLY
- ⚠FCF yield of 0.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $330.9M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →CME
LLY
Valuation
$4.19B
Free Cash Flow
$5.96B
3.75%
FCF Yield
0.73%
27.87
Trailing P/E
40.00
24.44
Forward P/E
21.79
Quality & Moat
10.10%
ROIC
32.84%
14.00%
ROE
77.78%
100.00%
Gross Margin
83.04%
0.80
PEG Ratio
0.78
Balance Sheet Safety
0.13
Debt / Equity
1.65
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
-0.17
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.15
1.67%
Dividend Yield
0.68%
CME: 6Ties: 2LLY: 4
CMELLY
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →CME
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
LLY
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →CME
$526.78
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$71.5M
Δ Market Cap
+$37.66B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
LLY
$27.47
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$613.62B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →CME
47.6% Overvalued
Price is 47.6% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $310.71
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $210.47
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
LLY
12.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 12.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $917.50
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $1048.80
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →CME
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $311?
+11.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +11.5%
The market implies +11.9% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +11.5%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
LLY
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $918?
+17.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +35.1%
The market implies +17.7% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +35.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →CME
77/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat driven primarily by margin stability. ROIC Consistency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →CME
-2.43
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →CME
Insiders 0.5%Institutions 92.6%Retail & Other 6.9%
No. of Institutional Holders2,296
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 84.7%Retail & Other 15.1%
No. of Institutional Holders5,561
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →CME
0
Buys (3M)
2
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $144,331
SHEPARD WILLIAM R
Director
$72,336
@ $270.92 · 2025-06-25
SHEPARD WILLIAM R
Director
$71,995
@ $262.76 · 2025-03-26
SHEPARD WILLIAM R
Director
$325,798
@ $227.99 · 2025-01-16
SHEPARD WILLIAM R
Director
$324,198
@ $227.99 · 2025-01-16
BENESH KATHRYN
Director
$3,595
@ $239.67 · 2024-12-27
SHEPARD WILLIAM R
Director
$63,945
@ $218.99 · 2024-09-25
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →CME
4
Sells (3M)
16
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $15.70M
VROMAN KENDAL L
Officer
$1.59M
@ $309.00 · 2026-03-12
DURKIN BRYAN T
Director
$1.30M
@ $309.65 · 2026-02-23
GEPSMAN MARTIN J
Director
$91,770
@ $305.90 · 2026-02-20
SUSKIND DENNIS A
Director
$224,400
@ $300.00 · 2026-02-06
DUFFY TERRENCE A
Chief Executive Officer
$6.74M
@ $269.55 · 2025-12-11
FORD HAROLD EUGENE JR
Director
$263,530
@ $263.53 · 2025-11-03
MARCUS JONATHAN L
General Counsel
$102,704
@ $262.00 · 2025-09-18
MCCOURT TIMOTHY FRANCIS
Officer
$98,476
@ $259.83 · 2025-09-16
MARCUS JONATHAN L
General Counsel
$97,369
@ $258.96 · 2025-09-16
CUTINHO SUNIL KIRAN
Chief Technology Officer
$3.23M
@ $271.47 · 2025-08-26
KAYE DANIEL G
Director
$141,210
@ $282.42 · 2025-05-22
MARCUS JONATHAN L
General Counsel
$108,225
@ $277.50 · 2025-05-20
LOCKETT PHYLLIS M
Director
$294,553
@ $277.88 · 2025-05-19
GEPSMAN MARTIN J
Director
$81,951
@ $273.17 · 2025-05-15
SUSKIND DENNIS A
Director
$271,280
@ $271.28 · 2025-04-29
GERDES LARRY G
Director
$1.06M
@ $265.11 · 2025-04-25
LUCAS DEBORAH J
Director
$385,425
@ $256.95 · 2025-03-14
DUFFY TERRENCE A
Chief Executive Officer
$7.78M
@ $259.18 · 2025-03-11
SPRAGUE SUZANNE
Chief Operating Officer
$385,249
@ $256.83 · 2025-03-03
PIELL HILDA HARRIS
Officer
$997,853
@ $250.47 · 2025-02-27
VROMAN KENDAL L
Officer
$1.27M
@ $250.00 · 2025-02-13
WINKLER JULIE
Officer
$2.89M
@ $249.17 · 2025-02-13
GEPSMAN MARTIN J
Director
$89,168
@ $222.92 · 2024-11-04
CUTINHO SUNIL KIRAN
Chief Technology Officer
$1.02M
@ $226.64 · 2024-10-30
BITSBERGER TIMOTHY S
Director
$226,957
@ $226.96 · 2024-10-30
MCCOURT TIMOTHY FRANCIS
Officer
$312,056
@ $227.11 · 2024-10-28
FITZPATRICK LYNNE
Chief Financial Officer
$163,610
@ $216.99 · 2024-09-13
DURKIN BRYAN T
Director
$1.63M
@ $214.59 · 2024-08-30
GLICKMAN DANIEL ROBERT
Director
$130,937
@ $201.44 · 2024-06-06
PIELL HILDA HARRIS
Officer
$1.50M
@ $210.35 · 2024-05-08
DUFFY TERRENCE A
Chief Executive Officer
$8.44M
@ $210.91 · 2024-04-29
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
LLY
5
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.84B
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$818,240
@ $818.24 · 2025-03-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$204.33M
@ $928.76 · 2025-03-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →CME
😐Neutral(59/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
LLY
😐Neutral(43/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →CME
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (43)