Compare Stocks › CME vs LLY

CME Group Inc. (CME) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-09-18, CME is overvalued at $271, with a DCF intrinsic value of $222 and a margin of safety of -22%. LLY is undervalued at $1152, with an intrinsic value of $1598 and a margin of safety of 28%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

CME

CME Group Inc.

$271.15

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

$1152.44

Rewards

CME

★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★CME Group Inc. scores 77/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Free cash flow has grown at a 12.2% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.

LLY

★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 83.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

CME

⚠PEG ratio of 4.74 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.53 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

LLY

⚠FCF yield of 1.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠Insiders have sold $10.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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CME

LLY

Valuation

$4.19B

Free Cash Flow

$11.07B

4.30%

FCF Yield

1.08%

22.98

Trailing P/E

38.17

20.98

Forward P/E

24.36

Quality & Moat

11.42%

ROIC

38.43%

15.80%

ROE

102.29%

100.00%

Gross Margin

83.40%

4.74

PEG Ratio

1.12

Balance Sheet Safety

0.06

Net Debt / Equity

1.36

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

0.33

Net Debt / EBITDA

1.10

1.91%

Dividend Yield

0.61%

CME: 7Ties: 1LLY: 4

CMELLY

Historical Fundamentals

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CME

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

LLY

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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CME

$526.78

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$71.5M

Δ Market Cap

+$37.66B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

LLY

$27.49

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$22.34B

Δ Market Cap

+$614.01B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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CME

22.1% Overvalued

Price is 22.1% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $271.15

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $222.01

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

LLY

27.9% Margin of Safety

Price is 27.9% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $1152.44

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $1597.97

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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CME

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $271?

+9.6%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +10.0%

The market implies +9.6% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +10.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1152?

+20.8%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +29.5%

The market implies +20.8% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +29.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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CME

77/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by margin stability. ROIC Consistency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

LLY

73/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

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CME

-2.43

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

LLY

-1.83

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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CME

Insiders 0.4%Institutions 91.8%Retail & Other 7.7%

No. of Institutional Holders2,321

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

LLY

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%

No. of Institutional Holders5,890

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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CME

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $515,287

SHEPARD WILLIAM R

Director

$78,186

@ $230.64 · 2026-06-25

SHEPARD WILLIAM R

Director

$437,101

@ $297.55 · 2026-03-26

SHEPARD WILLIAM R

Director

$72,336

@ $270.92 · 2025-06-25

SHEPARD WILLIAM R

Director

$71,995

@ $262.76 · 2025-03-26

SHEPARD WILLIAM R

Director

$325,798

@ $227.99 · 2025-01-16

SHEPARD WILLIAM R

Director

$324,198

@ $227.99 · 2025-01-16

BENESH KATHRYN

Director

$3,595

@ $239.67 · 2024-12-27

SHEPARD WILLIAM R

Director

$63,945

@ $218.99 · 2024-09-25

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

LLY

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

MONTARCE LUCAS E

Chief Financial Officer

$494,627

@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15

ALVAREZ RALPH

Director

$500,473

@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13

VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.

Officer

$647,360

@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13

FYRWALD J. ERIK

Director

$1.01M

@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12

RICKS DAVID A

Chief Executive Officer

$1.05M

@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12

SKOVRONSKY DANIEL

Officer

$634,405

@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12

SULZBERGER GABRIELLE

Director

$75,018

@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12

JACKSON JAMERE

Director

$127,913

@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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CME

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $28.66M

DUFFY TERRENCE A

Chief Executive Officer

$4.12M

@ $274.44 · 2026-09-10

PIELL HILDA HARRIS

Officer

$1.75M

@ $304.63 · 2026-05-18

DUFFY TERRENCE A

Chief Executive Officer

$10.45M

@ $298.51 · 2026-05-15

MARCUS JONATHAN L

General Counsel

$1.10M

@ $333.37 · 2026-03-17

MARCUS JONATHAN L

Officer

$1.03M

@ $313.37 · 2026-03-17

VROMAN KENDAL L

Officer

$1.59M

@ $309.00 · 2026-03-12

DURKIN BRYAN T

Director

$1.30M

@ $309.65 · 2026-02-23

GEPSMAN MARTIN J

Director

$91,770

@ $305.90 · 2026-02-20

SUSKIND DENNIS A.

Director

$224,400

@ $300.00 · 2026-02-06

DUFFY TERRENCE A

Chief Executive Officer

$6.74M

@ $269.55 · 2025-12-11

FORD HAROLD EUGENE JR

Director

$263,530

@ $263.53 · 2025-11-03

MARCUS JONATHAN L

General Counsel

$102,704

@ $262.00 · 2025-09-18

MCCOURT TIMOTHY FRANCIS

Officer

$98,476

@ $259.83 · 2025-09-16

MARCUS JONATHAN L

General Counsel

$97,369

@ $258.96 · 2025-09-16

CUTINHO SUNIL KIRAN

Chief Technology Officer

$3.23M

@ $271.47 · 2025-08-26

KAYE DANIEL G

Director

$141,210

@ $282.42 · 2025-05-22

MARCUS JONATHAN L

General Counsel

$108,225

@ $277.50 · 2025-05-20

LOCKETT PHYLLIS M

Director

$294,553

@ $277.88 · 2025-05-19

GEPSMAN MARTIN J

Director

$81,951

@ $273.17 · 2025-05-15

SUSKIND DENNIS A.

Director

$271,280

@ $271.28 · 2025-04-29

GERDES LARRY G

Director

$1.06M

@ $265.11 · 2025-04-25

LUCAS DEBORAH J

Director

$385,425

@ $256.95 · 2025-03-14

DUFFY TERRENCE A

Chief Executive Officer

$7.78M

@ $259.18 · 2025-03-11

SPRAGUE SUZANNE

Chief Operating Officer

$385,249

@ $256.83 · 2025-03-03

PIELL HILDA HARRIS

Officer

$997,853

@ $250.47 · 2025-02-27

WINKLER JULIE

Officer

$2.89M

@ $249.17 · 2025-02-13

VROMAN KENDAL L

Officer

$1.27M

@ $250.00 · 2025-02-13

GEPSMAN MARTIN J

Director

$89,168

@ $222.92 · 2024-11-04

CUTINHO SUNIL KIRAN

Chief Technology Officer

$1.02M

@ $226.64 · 2024-10-30

BITSBERGER TIMOTHY S

Director

$226,957

@ $226.96 · 2024-10-30

MCCOURT TIMOTHY FRANCIS

Officer

$312,056

@ $227.11 · 2024-10-28

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

LLY

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $3.56B

JONSSON PATRIK

Officer

$7.64M

@ $1175.10 · 2026-08-17

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$2.37M

@ $1185.01 · 2026-08-10

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$2.88M

@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$15.75M

@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$322.38M

@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$1.51M

@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.90M

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$2.85M

@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260,409

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.08M

@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$17.34M

@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$152.06M

@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$111.50M

@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$39.07M

@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$176.10M

@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$62.31M

@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$10.19M

@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$183.80M

@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$48.02M

@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$1.01M

@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$308.41M

@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$279.35M

@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$16.41M

@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$167.09M

@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$38.47M

@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$479,038

@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$266.65M

@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260.17M

@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.16M

@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$9.04M

@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.23M

@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$22.72M

@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$137.04M

@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.22M

@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$92.50M

@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$107.36M

@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$177.29M

@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.79M

@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$18.06M

@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$81.53M

@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$734,930

@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$783,762

@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$225.42M

@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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CME

😐Neutral(50/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

LLY

😐Neutral(52/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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CME

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (50)

LLY

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (52)

View CME Full Analysis View LLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: CME vs LLY

Is CME Group Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 27.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1598 vs. price $1152), compared to CME's -22.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $222 vs. $271).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, CME Group Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

CME scores 77/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is CME Group Inc. in financial distress?▼

CME's Altman Z-Score of 0.5 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, CME Group Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

CME Group Inc. (CME) generates a 4.3% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 1.1%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, CME Group Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY earns 38.4% ROIC versus CME's 11.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, CME Group Inc.'s or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼

LLY's dividend earns a safety score of 64/100 (Safe), compared to CME's 34/100 (Unsafe). LLY has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.