Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) vs Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, CHD is overvalued at $95, with a DCF intrinsic value of $66 and a margin of safety of -45%. JNJ is fairly valued at $269, with an intrinsic value of $303 and a margin of safety of 11%. Of the two, JNJ has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Church & Dwight Co., Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Church & Dwight Co., Inc. scores 94/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 15.7% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Johnson & Johnson has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 68.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Johnson & Johnson scores 90/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.66 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $5.5M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 31.2x is 56% above the historical average of 20.0x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.79 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $95?
The market implies +12.7% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +11.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $269?
The market implies +9.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +17.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: CHD vs JNJ
Is Church & Dwight Co., Inc. or Johnson & Johnson more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, JNJ trades at a 11.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $303 vs. price $269), compared to CHD's -45.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $66 vs. $95).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Church & Dwight Co., Inc. or Johnson & Johnson?▼
CHD scores 94/100 (Wide moat), while JNJ scores 90/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, Church & Dwight Co., Inc. or Johnson & Johnson?▼
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) generates a 4.2% free cash flow yield, compared to Johnson & Johnson's 2.6%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Church & Dwight Co., Inc. or Johnson & Johnson?▼
JNJ earns 16.9% ROIC versus CHD's 13.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Church & Dwight Co., Inc.'s or Johnson & Johnson's?▼
CHD's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to JNJ's 79/100 (Safe). CHD has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.