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Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, CFG is undervalued at $64, with a DCF intrinsic value of $245 and a margin of safety of 74%. UNH is overvalued at $407, with an intrinsic value of $367 and a margin of safety of -11%. Of the two, CFG has the wider margin of safety.

CFG
Citizens Financial Group, Inc.
$63.81
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$406.97

Rewards

CFG
  • ★Citizens Financial Group, Inc. scores 84/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 13% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
UNH
  • ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

CFG
  • ⚠Gross margin of 0.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.18 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 20.1% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 20.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 7.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

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CFG
UNH
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$26.50B
N/A
FCF Yield
7.25%
12.89
Trailing P/E
23.23
9.84
Forward P/E
17.48
Quality & Moat
13.61%
ROIC
11.51%
8.90%
ROE
15.77%
0.00%
Gross Margin
20.05%
1.65
PEG Ratio
1.03
Balance Sheet Safety
N/A
Net Debt / Equity
0.43
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.58
3.26%
Dividend Yield
2.28%
CFG: 4Ties: 1UNH: 3
CFGUNH

Historical Fundamentals

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CFG

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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CFG
$2.55
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$2.23B
Δ Market Cap
+$5.69B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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CFG
73.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 73.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $63.81
Fair Value: $244.67
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
10.8% Overvalued
Price is 10.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $406.97
Fair Value: $367.30
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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CFG

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $407?

+14.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +4.2%

The market implies +14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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CFG
84/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
UNH
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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CFG
-2.39
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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CFG
Insiders 0.7%Institutions 101.4%
No. of Institutional Holders1,527
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 89.6%Retail & Other 10.1%
No. of Institutional Holders4,333
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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CFG
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
SWIFT CHRISTOPHER J
Director
$1,116
@ $37.20 · 2025-06-02
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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CFG
0
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $10.47M
VAN SAUN BRUCE W
Chief Executive Officer
$9.32M
@ $72.07 · 2026-07-24
MOOSALLY MICHELLE
Officer
$376,068
@ $62.16 · 2026-05-12
LAMONICA SUSAN
Officer
$769,494
@ $58.04 · 2026-03-11
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
2
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $944,910
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$455,910
@ $390.00 · 2026-08-21
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$205,000
@ $410.00 · 2026-08-05
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$284,000
@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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CFG
FearGreed
😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😏Greed(62/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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CFG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (62)
View CFG Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: CFG vs UNH

Is Citizens Financial Group, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, CFG trades at a 73.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $245 vs. price $64), compared to UNH's -10.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $367 vs. $407).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Citizens Financial Group, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

CFG scores 84/100 (Wide moat), while UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Citizens Financial Group, Inc. in financial distress?▼

CFG's Altman Z-Score of 0.2 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNH scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Citizens Financial Group, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

CFG earns 13.6% ROIC versus UNH's 11.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Citizens Financial Group, Inc.'s or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

CFG's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to UNH's 84/100 (Very Safe). CFG has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

CFG vs UNH: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io