Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) vs Chevron Corporation (CVX): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, CAT is fairly valued at $783, with a DCF intrinsic value of $715 and a margin of safety of -10%. CVX is overvalued at $212, with an intrinsic value of $147 and a margin of safety of -44%. Of the two, CAT has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Caterpillar Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Caterpillar Inc. scores 75/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 13.0% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.93 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 33.7x is 68% above the historical average of 20.0x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠High leverage (2.02x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 11.0 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠FCF yield of 5.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $783?
The market implies +18.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +21.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $212?
The market implies +13.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +7.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: CAT vs CVX
Is Caterpillar Inc. or Chevron Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, CAT trades at a -9.5% margin of safety (intrinsic value $715 vs. price $783), compared to CVX's -44.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $147 vs. $212).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Caterpillar Inc. or Chevron Corporation?▼
CAT scores 75/100 (Wide moat), while CVX scores 43/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, Caterpillar Inc. or Chevron Corporation?▼
Chevron Corporation (CVX) generates a 5.3% free cash flow yield, compared to Caterpillar Inc.'s 2.1%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Caterpillar Inc. or Chevron Corporation?▼
CAT earns 20.3% ROIC versus CVX's 15.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Caterpillar Inc.'s or Chevron Corporation's?▼
CAT's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to CVX's 30/100 (Unsafe). CAT has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.