Compare Stocks › CARR vs MA

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) vs Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, CARR is undervalued at $62, with a DCF intrinsic value of $78 and a margin of safety of 21%. MA is fairly valued at $573, with an intrinsic value of $558 and a margin of safety of -3%. Of the two, CARR has the wider margin of safety.

CARR

Carrier Global Corporation

$61.81

Mastercard Incorporated

$573.10

Rewards

CARR

★Free cash flow has grown at a 14.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.

★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

CARR

⚠Gross margin of 24.7% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠Trailing P/E of 44.2x is 103% above the historical average of 21.7x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.

⚠High leverage (2.33x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠5 insider sales totaling $22.1M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

Key Valuation Metrics

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CARR

Valuation

$2.12B

Free Cash Flow

$16.96B

4.16%

FCF Yield

3.38%

44.15

Trailing P/E

31.54

18.74

Forward P/E

24.96

Quality & Moat

8.82%

ROIC

55.99%

8.97%

ROE

241.20%

24.69%

Gross Margin

100.00%

1.47

PEG Ratio

1.76

Balance Sheet Safety

0.82

Net Debt / Equity

2.33

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

3.57

Net Debt / EBITDA

0.59

1.55%

Dividend Yield

0.61%

CARR: 5Ties: 1MA: 6

CARRMA

Historical Fundamentals

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CARR

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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CARR

$1.53

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Value Creator

Σ Retained

$6.38B

Δ Market Cap

+$9.75B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

$5.62

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$31.68B

Δ Market Cap

+$177.96B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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CARR

20.9% Margin of Safety

Price is 20.9% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $61.81

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $78.13

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

2.7% Overvalued

Price is 2.7% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $573.10

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $557.89

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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CARR

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $62?

+11.4%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +12.9%

The market implies +11.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +12.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $573?

+15.1%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +13.4%

The market implies +15.1% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +13.4%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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CARR

53/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

99/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Forensic Accounting

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CARR

-2.56

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

-2.53

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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CARR

Insiders 4.8%Institutions 90.0%Retail & Other 5.2%

No. of Institutional Holders2,021

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.5%Retail & Other 8.3%

No. of Institutional Holders4,764

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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CARR

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $1.02M

GITLIN DAVID L

Chief Executive Officer

$1.02M

@ $52.62 · 2025-11-25

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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CARR

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

CROCKETT KYLE

Officer

$1.23M

@ $65.18 · 2025-02-14

CROCKETT KYLE

Officer

$889,082

@ $76.34 · 2024-11-07

O'CONNOR KEVIN J

Officer

$12.28M

@ $73.46 · 2024-11-06

AGRAWAL AJAY

Officer

$4.03M

@ $64.55 · 2024-08-08

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $53.72M

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$10.59M

@ $534.87 · 2026-07-15

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$185,760

@ $540.00 · 2026-07-15

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$216,000

@ $540.00 · 2026-07-07

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$3.58M

@ $526.37 · 2026-07-02

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$7.49M

@ $525.19 · 2026-07-01

LING HAI

Officer

$4.48M

@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.20M

@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02

LING HAI

Officer

$2.69M

@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.46M

@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.83M

@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$178,049

@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$601,447

@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$173,910

@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$508,474

@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.02M

@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$1.76M

@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$549,373

@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.55M

@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$8.22M

@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$218,223

@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$257,535

@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$8.68M

@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$3.81M

@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.12M

@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$9.78M

@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.19M

@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$6.18M

@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$10.17M

@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$7.97M

@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.36M

@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.30M

@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.29M

@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$550,000

@ $500.00 · 2024-09-17

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.31M

@ $493.10 · 2024-09-13

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$528,000

@ $480.00 · 2024-08-29

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.19M

@ $468.80 · 2024-08-22

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.03M

@ $467.02 · 2024-08-21

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.16M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

LING HAI

Officer

$1.36M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$6.11M

@ $455.00 · 2024-08-05

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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CARR

😨Fear(38/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

😏Greed(67/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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CARR

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (38)

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (67)

View CARR Full Analysis View MA Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: CARR vs MA

Is Carrier Global Corporation or Mastercard Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, CARR trades at a 20.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $78 vs. price $62), compared to MA's -2.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $558 vs. $573).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Carrier Global Corporation or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while CARR scores 53/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Carrier Global Corporation in financial distress?▼

CARR's Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MA scores 10.6 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Carrier Global Corporation or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) generates a 4.2% free cash flow yield, compared to Mastercard Incorporated's 3.4%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Carrier Global Corporation or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

MA earns 56.0% ROIC versus CARR's 8.8%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Carrier Global Corporation's or Mastercard Incorporated's?▼

MA's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to CARR's 84/100 (Very Safe). MA has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.