SafetyMargin.ioSafetyMargin.io
BlogWatchlistCompare
Compare Stocks › CAG vs UNH

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

CAG
Conagra Brands, Inc.
$14.06
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$368.78

Rewards

CAG
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 22.3% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $12.71 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
  • ★Dividend yield of 9.96% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.
UNH
  • ★Dividend yield of 2.40% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.

Risks

CAG
  • ⚠Gross margin of 24.3% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 10.86 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 4.2x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 7.9 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 18.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 5.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →
CAG
UNH
Valuation
$1.30B
Free Cash Flow
$17.69B
19.36%
FCF Yield
5.28%
N/A
Trailing P/E
27.85
8.28
Forward P/E
17.77
Quality & Moat
6.02%
ROIC
15.60%
14.12%
ROE
11.45%
24.27%
Gross Margin
18.80%
10.86
PEG Ratio
39.79
Balance Sheet Safety
0.90
Debt / Equity
0.74
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
4.21
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.18
9.96%
Dividend Yield
2.40%
CAG: 6Ties: 1UNH: 4
CAGUNH

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →
CAG

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →
CAG
$-44.67
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$230.9M
Δ Market Cap
$-10.32B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →
CAG
35.1% Margin of Safety
Price is 35.1% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $14.06
Fair Value: $21.66
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
9.6% Overvalued
Price is 9.6% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $368.78
Fair Value: $336.33
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →
CAG

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $14?

+0.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -0.8%

The market implies +0.9% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -0.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $369?

+13.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +8.7%

The market implies +13.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →
CAG
52/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UNH
64/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →
CAG
-2.66
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →
CAG
Insiders 0.7%Institutions 87.5%Retail & Other 11.8%
No. of Institutional Holders1,043
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.8%Institutions 84.7%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders4,077
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →
CAG
1
Buys (3M)
2
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $437,602
MULLIGAN JOHN J
Director
$250,402
@ $14.31 · 2026-04-14
BROWN THOMAS K
Director
$187,200
@ $18.72 · 2025-10-07
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
5
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $31.61M
HEMSLEY STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$25.02M
@ $288.57 · 2025-05-16
REX JOHN F
President
$5.00M
@ $291.12 · 2025-05-16
GIL KRISTEN
Director
$1.00M
@ $271.17 · 2025-05-15
NOSEWORTHY JOHN H
Director
$93,647
@ $312.16 · 2025-05-14
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
Director
$491,786
@ $320.80 · 2025-05-14
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
Director
$511,575
@ $511.57 · 2025-01-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →
CAG
0
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $223,659
NAPIER MELISSA C
Officer
$223,659
@ $17.19 · 2025-11-04
MCGOUGH THOMAS M
Chief Operating Officer
$1.21M
@ $30.29 · 2024-08-13
BROCK CHARISSE
Officer
$469,034
@ $30.37 · 2024-05-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
1
Sells (3M)
2
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $463,645
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
Officer
$284,000
@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
Chief Executive Officer
$179,645
@ $305.00 · 2025-06-10
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →
CAG
FearGreed
😨Fear(28/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😏Greed(65/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →
CAG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (28)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (65)
View CAG Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis