Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) vs Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, CAG is fairly valued at $15, with a DCF intrinsic value of $16 and a margin of safety of 10%. ORCL is undervalued at $131, with an intrinsic value of $385 and a margin of safety of 66%. Of the two, ORCL has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 15.6% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★FCF yield of 14.1% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
- ★Gross margin of 64.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.80 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
- ⚠Gross margin of 23.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 10.86 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 4.5x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
- ⚠High leverage (1.97x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.57 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $15?
Market roughly matching historical growth — reasonable.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: CAG vs ORCL
Is Conagra Brands, Inc. or Oracle Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, ORCL trades at a 66.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $385 vs. price $131), compared to CAG's 10.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $16 vs. $15).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Conagra Brands, Inc. or Oracle Corporation?▼
ORCL scores 67/100 (Narrow moat), while CAG scores 49/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Oracle Corporation in financial distress?▼
ORCL's Altman Z-Score of 1.6 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. CAG scores 1.6 (Distress zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Conagra Brands, Inc. or Oracle Corporation?▼
Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) generates a 14.1% free cash flow yield, compared to Oracle Corporation's -11.6%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Conagra Brands, Inc. or Oracle Corporation?▼
ORCL earns 8.5% ROIC versus CAG's 7.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Conagra Brands, Inc.'s or Oracle Corporation's?▼
ORCL's dividend earns a safety score of 79/100 (Safe), compared to CAG's 50/100 (Borderline). ORCL has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.