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Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, BDX is undervalued at $166, with a DCF intrinsic value of $53704729354 and a margin of safety of 100%. LLY is undervalued at $1149, with an intrinsic value of $1529604356065 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

BDX
Becton, Dickinson and Company
$165.62
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1148.84

Rewards

BDX
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 17.2% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.63 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

BDX
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.01 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠6 insider sales with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
LLY
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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BDX
LLY
Valuation
$4.53B
Free Cash Flow
$9.16B
N/A
FCF Yield
N/A
28.90
Trailing P/E
40.81
12.30
Forward P/E
25.48
Quality & Moat
6.25%
ROIC
37.80%
6.67%
ROE
107.46%
47.09%
Gross Margin
82.83%
1.11
PEG Ratio
1.61
Balance Sheet Safety
0.68
Net Debt / Equity
1.22
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
2.67
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.05
2.54%
Dividend Yield
0.60%
BDX: 5Ties: 1LLY: 5
BDXLLY

Historical Fundamentals

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BDX

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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BDX
$-0.00
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$1.46B
Δ Market Cap
$-47.351
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
LLY
$0.00
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Destroyer
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$708.84
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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BDX
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $165.62
Fair Value: $53704729354.42
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
LLY
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1148.84
Fair Value: $1529604356065.14
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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BDX

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $166?

-12.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -17.4%

The market implies -12.5% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -17.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1149?

-30.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -15.1%

The market implies -30.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -15.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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BDX
67/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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BDX
-2.63
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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BDX
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 101.0%
No. of Institutional Holders1,919
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.1%Retail & Other 14.8%
No. of Institutional Holders5,685
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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BDX
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $1.01M
HAYES GREGORY J
Director
$1.01M
@ $191.57 · 2025-08-11
HENDERSON JEFFREY WILLIAM
Director
$350,430
@ $233.62 · 2025-02-10
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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BDX
6
Sells (3M)
21
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $1.89M
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$11,785
@ $157.13 · 2026-07-27
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$11,460
@ $152.80 · 2026-06-26
GARRISON MICHAEL DAVID
Officer
$160,226
@ $145.66 · 2026-06-24
GARRISON MICHAEL DAVID
Officer
$166,628
@ $151.48 · 2026-06-10
POLEN THOMAS E JR
Chief Executive Officer
$404,511
@ $146.35 · 2026-06-01
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$11,051
@ $147.35 · 2026-05-26
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$11,244
@ $151.95 · 2026-04-27
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$11,762
@ $156.83 · 2026-03-26
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$13,638
@ $181.84 · 2026-02-26
SCOTT BERTRAM LEE
Director
$174,027
@ $182.61 · 2026-02-18
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$15,205
@ $202.73 · 2026-01-26
GARRISON MICHAEL DAVID
Officer
$334,005
@ $207.46 · 2026-01-15
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$14,510
@ $196.08 · 2025-12-26
GARRISON MICHAEL DAVID
Officer
$123,303
@ $196.03 · 2025-12-17
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$14,502
@ $193.36 · 2025-12-01
SCOTT BERTRAM LEE
Director
$38,318
@ $176.58 · 2025-11-07
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$10,603
@ $186.02 · 2025-10-27
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$10,500
@ $181.03 · 2025-09-26
FRASER CLAIRE
Director
$171,938
@ $187.50 · 2025-09-10
FELD MICHAEL
Officer
$11,285
@ $197.98 · 2025-08-22
FRASER CLAIRE
Director
$165,955
@ $192.30 · 2025-08-08
GARRISON MICHAEL DAVID
Officer
$213,645
@ $180.29 · 2025-07-18
SHAN DAVID
Officer
$199,608
@ $171.19 · 2025-06-02
GARRISON MICHAEL DAVID
Officer
$94,497
@ $197.28 · 2025-04-09
BYRD RICHARD
Officer
$105,570
@ $230.00 · 2025-03-18
BYRD RICHARD
Officer
$436,325
@ $224.91 · 2025-03-12
SCOTT BERTRAM LEE
Director
$159,593
@ $227.99 · 2025-02-12
SHAN DAVID
Officer
$120,000
@ $240.00 · 2025-01-21
NEAL SHANA CAROL
Officer
$188,880
@ $240.00 · 2025-01-21
GARRISON MICHAEL DAVID
Officer
$141,196
@ $236.51 · 2025-01-17
NEAL SHANA CAROL
Officer
$185,180
@ $235.00 · 2025-01-07
GARRISON MICHAEL DAVID
Officer
$633,811
@ $223.33 · 2024-12-19
GOETTE ROLAND
Officer
$1.13M
@ $220.76 · 2024-12-09
NEAL SHANA CAROL
Officer
$220,490
@ $220.49 · 2024-12-06
SHAN DAVID
Officer
$330,375
@ $220.25 · 2024-12-05
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
LLY
2
Sells (3M)
40
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.63B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.80M
@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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BDX
FearGreed
😐Neutral(58/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
LLY
FearGreed
😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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BDX
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (58)
LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
View BDX Full AnalysisView LLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: BDX vs LLY

Is Becton, Dickinson and Company or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1529604356065 vs. price $1149), compared to BDX's 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $53704729354 vs. $166).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Becton, Dickinson and Company or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while BDX scores 67/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Becton, Dickinson and Company in financial distress?▼

BDX's Altman Z-Score of 1.0 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 2.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Becton, Dickinson and Company or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus BDX's 6.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Becton, Dickinson and Company's or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼

BDX's dividend earns a safety score of 78/100 (Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). BDX has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.