Ball Corporation (BALL) vs Pfizer, Inc. (PFE): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-03, BALL is undervalued at $65, with a DCF intrinsic value of $88 and a margin of safety of 26%. PFE is undervalued at $25, with an intrinsic value of $127985960274 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, PFE has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Share count has been reduced by 16% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
- ★Gross margin of 74.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Trailing P/E of 19.1x is 37% below the historical average of 30.4x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
Risks
- ⚠Gross margin of 19.2% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 15.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.94 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.38 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $65?
The market implies +9.8% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +13.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $25?
The market implies -14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding -15.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: BALL vs PFE
Is Ball Corporation or Pfizer, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, PFE trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $127985960274 vs. price $25), compared to BALL's 25.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $88 vs. $65).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Ball Corporation or Pfizer, Inc.?▼
BALL scores 43/100 (Narrow moat), while PFE scores 35/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Pfizer, Inc. in financial distress?▼
PFE's Altman Z-Score of 1.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. BALL scores 2.4 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Ball Corporation or Pfizer, Inc.?▼
PFE earns 10.2% ROIC versus BALL's 7.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Ball Corporation's or Pfizer, Inc.'s?▼
BALL's dividend earns a safety score of 85/100 (Very Safe), compared to PFE's 24/100 (Unsafe). BALL has raised its dividend for 0 consecutive years.