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Compare Stocks › AXP vs RSG

American Express Company (AXP) vs Republic Services, Inc. (RSG): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, AXP is undervalued at $319, with a DCF intrinsic value of $462 and a margin of safety of 31%. RSG is overvalued at $244, with an intrinsic value of $131 and a margin of safety of -86%. Of the two, AXP has the wider margin of safety.

AXP
American Express Company
$319.11
VS
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
$244.04

Rewards

AXP
  • ★Gross margin of 62.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★American Express Company scores 100/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
RSG
  • ★Republic Services, Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 11.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.00 of earning power — management is creating shareholder value.

Risks

AXP
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.93 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $3.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 5.9% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
RSG
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 3.16 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.

Key Valuation Metrics

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AXP
RSG
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$1.98B
N/A
FCF Yield
2.66%
17.98
Trailing P/E
33.80
15.80
Forward P/E
30.48
Quality & Moat
11.07%
ROIC
10.51%
35.93%
ROE
18.48%
61.95%
Gross Margin
43.02%
1.32
PEG Ratio
3.16
Balance Sheet Safety
0.46
Net Debt / Equity
1.14
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.60
1.19%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
AXP: 8Ties: 1RSG: 0
AXPRSG

Historical Fundamentals

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AXP

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

RSG

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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AXP
$6.18
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$23.29B
Δ Market Cap
+$144.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
RSG
$6.36
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$3.85B
Δ Market Cap
+$24.50B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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AXP
31.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 31.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $319.11
Fair Value: $462.42
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
RSG
86.3% Overvalued
Price is 86.3% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $244.04
Fair Value: $130.97
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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AXP

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

RSG

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $244?

+17.3%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +18.6%

The market implies +17.3% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +18.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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AXP
100/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
RSG
89/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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AXP
-2.51
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
RSG
-2.74
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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AXP
Insiders 22.7%Institutions 65.0%Retail & Other 12.2%
No. of Institutional Holders3,716
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
RSG
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 99.5%Retail & Other 0.4%
No. of Institutional Holders1,828
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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AXP
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4,054
@ $176.26 · 2025-04-09
ANGELAKIS MICHAEL J
Director
$998,593
@ $269.89 · 2025-03-07
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
RSG
12
Buys (3M)
15
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $1.58B
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$129.31M
@ $222.63 · 2026-09-11
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$159.59M
@ $221.41 · 2026-09-09
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$164.70M
@ $223.99 · 2026-09-04
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$119.10M
@ $223.04 · 2026-09-02
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$122.37M
@ $221.52 · 2026-08-31
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$123.51M
@ $220.52 · 2026-08-27
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$127.03M
@ $222.42 · 2026-08-25
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$88.18M
@ $220.30 · 2026-08-21
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$83.40M
@ $220.08 · 2026-08-19
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$76.64M
@ $215.26 · 2026-08-17
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$78.33M
@ $215.81 · 2026-08-13
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$108.15M
@ $215.57 · 2026-08-11
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$101.84M
@ $208.69 · 2026-05-18
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$100.53M
@ $201.40 · 2026-05-13
WEYMOUTH KATHARINE B
Director
$100,122
@ $209.46 · 2025-12-09
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.00M
@ $234.91 · 2025-08-19
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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AXP
1
Sells (3M)
10
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $42.29M
HERENA MONIQUE
Officer
$2.97M
@ $337.41 · 2026-08-18
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$2.39M
@ $339.36 · 2026-06-15
LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA
Officer
$909,661
@ $300.02 · 2026-03-06
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4.77M
@ $340.67 · 2026-02-19
GROSFIELD HOWARD M
Officer
$2.82M
@ $346.73 · 2026-02-12
RADHAKRISHNAN RAVIKUMAR S
Chief Technology Officer
$5.35M
@ $356.58 · 2026-02-09
SEEGER LAUREEN E
Officer
$4.60M
@ $360.99 · 2026-02-09
MARRS ANNA
Officer
$9.60M
@ $350.01 · 2026-02-05
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$8.35M
@ $356.91 · 2026-02-05
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$538,902
@ $384.93 · 2025-12-12
RUTLEDGE ELIZABETH
Officer
$18.01M
@ $360.21 · 2025-10-31
TABISH DOUGLAS J
Officer
$894,359
@ $355.61 · 2025-10-23
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$1.75M
@ $350.73 · 2025-10-22
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$37.03M
@ $329.86 · 2025-09-04
HERENA MONIQUE
Officer
$2.83M
@ $325.88 · 2025-09-03
BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E
Officer
$7.67M
@ $326.37 · 2025-09-02
SEEGER LAUREEN E
Officer
$23.37M
@ $296.90 · 2025-08-06
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$15.47M
@ $309.50 · 2025-07-29
MARRS ANNA
Officer
$1.71M
@ $310.77 · 2025-07-29
MARQUEZ RAFAEL
Officer
$3.56M
@ $296.93 · 2025-05-20
GROSFIELD HOWARD M
Officer
$2.60M
@ $275.50 · 2025-05-06
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$799,009
@ $264.66 · 2025-04-29
MARRS ANNA
President
$6.32M
@ $287.88 · 2025-03-04
LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA
Officer
$897,590
@ $296.43 · 2025-02-26
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$2.29M
@ $309.96 · 2025-02-11
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$16.24M
@ $319.45 · 2025-02-06
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$3.53M
@ $317.01 · 2025-02-05
RADHAKRISHNAN RAVIKUMAR S
Chief Technology Officer
$3.03M
@ $319.17 · 2025-02-05
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$7.25M
@ $318.69 · 2025-02-05
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4.77M
@ $313.94 · 2025-01-28
LE CAILLEC CHRISTOPHE
Chief Financial Officer
$1.82M
@ $303.48 · 2024-11-27
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$48.90M
@ $286.57 · 2024-11-07
HERENA MONIQUE
Officer
$374,010
@ $287.70 · 2024-11-07
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
RSG
0
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $77,877
CARLSEN ELYSE
Officer
$77,877
@ $216.32 · 2026-05-19
BRUMMER GREGG
Chief Operating Officer
$1.72M
@ $233.94 · 2025-08-22
CARLSEN ELYSE
Officer
$59,495
@ $253.17 · 2025-06-05
RICHARDSON LARSON
Officer
$525,954
@ $239.07 · 2025-03-03
BRUMMER GREGG
Chief Operating Officer
$1.44M
@ $228.20 · 2025-02-19
WEYMOUTH KATHARINE B
Director
$400,187
@ $215.27 · 2024-12-05
DELGHIACCIO BRIAN M
Chief Financial Officer
$1.07M
@ $210.02 · 2024-11-19
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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AXP
FearGreed
😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
RSG
FearGreed
😏Greed(70/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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AXP
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)
RSG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (70)
View AXP Full AnalysisView RSG Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: AXP vs RSG

Is American Express Company or Republic Services, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, AXP trades at a 31.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $462 vs. price $319), compared to RSG's -86.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $131 vs. $244).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, American Express Company or Republic Services, Inc.?▼

AXP scores 100/100 (Wide moat), while RSG scores 89/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is American Express Company in financial distress?▼

AXP's Altman Z-Score of 0.9 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. RSG scores 3.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, American Express Company or Republic Services, Inc.?▼

AXP earns 11.1% ROIC versus RSG's 10.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, American Express Company's or Republic Services, Inc.'s?▼

RSG's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to AXP's 94/100 (Very Safe). RSG has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

AXP vs RSG: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io