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Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) vs Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, AVY is undervalued at $170, with a DCF intrinsic value of $17021531877 and a margin of safety of 100%. MA is fairly valued at $573, with an intrinsic value of $558 and a margin of safety of -3%. Of the two, AVY has the wider margin of safety.

AVY
Avery Dennison Corporation
$169.73
VS
MA
Mastercard Incorporated
$573.10

Rewards

AVY
  • ★Avery Dennison Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Avery Dennison Corporation scores 86/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
MA
  • ★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

AVY
    MA
    • ⚠High leverage (2.33x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
    • ⚠5 insider sales totaling $22.1M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    AVY
    MA
    Valuation
    $957.20M
    Free Cash Flow
    $16.96B
    N/A
    FCF Yield
    3.38%
    18.55
    Trailing P/E
    31.54
    15.11
    Forward P/E
    24.96
    Quality & Moat
    16.54%
    ROIC
    55.99%
    31.16%
    ROE
    241.20%
    28.98%
    Gross Margin
    100.00%
    1.92
    PEG Ratio
    1.76
    Balance Sheet Safety
    1.49
    Net Debt / Equity
    2.33
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    2.31
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.59
    2.36%
    Dividend Yield
    0.61%
    AVY: 4Ties: 1MA: 6
    AVYMA

    Historical Fundamentals

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    AVY

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    MA

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    AVY
    $0.00
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Value Destroyer
    Σ Retained
    $1.07B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$0.88
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    MA
    $5.62
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $31.68B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$177.96B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    AVY
    100.0% Margin of Safety
    Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $169.73
    Fair Value: $17021531877.17
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    MA
    2.7% Overvalued
    Price is 2.7% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $573.10
    Fair Value: $557.89
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    AVY

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $170?

    -14.8%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies -17.5%

    The market implies -14.8% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding -17.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    MA

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $573?

    +15.1%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +13.4%

    The market implies +15.1% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

    Standard FCF implies +13.4%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

    Economic Moat Score

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    AVY
    86/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Margin Stability is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    MA
    99/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    AVY
    -2.57
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    MA
    -2.53
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    AVY
    Insiders 0.6%Institutions 98.3%Retail & Other 1.1%
    No. of Institutional Holders1,109
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    MA
    Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.5%Retail & Other 8.3%
    No. of Institutional Holders4,764
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    AVY
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    MA
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    AVY
    0
    Sells (3M)
    4
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $20.24M
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Director
    $5.71M
    @ $172.95 · 2026-03-12
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Director
    $7.03M
    @ $175.81 · 2026-03-10
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Director
    $7.28M
    @ $181.92 · 2026-03-06
    WALKER IGNACIO J
    Officer
    $223,050
    @ $192.95 · 2026-02-06
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Officer and Director
    $2.36M
    @ $181.85 · 2025-03-06
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Officer and Director
    $1.50M
    @ $186.19 · 2025-03-03
    COLISTO NICHOLAS R.
    Chief Technology Officer
    $757,856
    @ $206.00 · 2024-11-25
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Officer and Director
    $3.70M
    @ $216.43 · 2024-08-23
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Officer and Director
    $4.26M
    @ $213.04 · 2024-08-21
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Officer and Director
    $4.25M
    @ $212.40 · 2024-08-19
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Officer and Director
    $2.75M
    @ $211.29 · 2024-08-15
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Officer and Director
    $1.24M
    @ $207.39 · 2024-08-13
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Officer and Director
    $1.24M
    @ $206.77 · 2024-08-09
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Officer and Director
    $1.24M
    @ $206.12 · 2024-08-07
    BUTIER MITCHELL R
    Officer and Director
    $2.71M
    @ $208.47 · 2024-08-05
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    MA
    5
    Sells (3M)
    10
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $53.72M
    MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
    Officer
    $10.59M
    @ $534.87 · 2026-07-15
    ARKELL SANDRA A
    Officer
    $185,760
    @ $540.00 · 2026-07-15
    ARKELL SANDRA A
    Officer
    $216,000
    @ $540.00 · 2026-07-07
    SESHADRI RAJEEV
    Officer
    $3.58M
    @ $526.37 · 2026-07-02
    MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
    Officer
    $7.49M
    @ $525.19 · 2026-07-01
    LING HAI
    Officer
    $4.48M
    @ $499.20 · 2026-02-24
    SACHIN J. MEHRA
    Chief Financial Officer
    $10.20M
    @ $591.00 · 2025-09-02
    LING HAI
    Officer
    $2.69M
    @ $600.00 · 2025-08-22
    SACHIN J. MEHRA
    Chief Financial Officer
    $10.46M
    @ $586.89 · 2025-08-19
    SACHIN J. MEHRA
    Chief Financial Officer
    $3.83M
    @ $566.46 · 2025-08-05
    GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
    Director
    $178,049
    @ $570.67 · 2025-07-07
    KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
    Officer
    $536,480
    @ $560.00 · 2025-06-30
    SESHADRI RAJEEV
    Officer
    $601,447
    @ $546.77 · 2025-06-27
    GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
    Director
    $173,910
    @ $561.00 · 2025-06-24
    KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
    Officer
    $536,480
    @ $560.00 · 2025-06-24
    SESHADRI RAJEEV
    Officer
    $508,474
    @ $535.80 · 2025-06-20
    VOSBURG CRAIG
    Officer
    $5.02M
    @ $532.97 · 2025-06-20
    SESHADRI RAJEEV
    Officer
    $1.76M
    @ $561.78 · 2025-06-16
    KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
    Officer
    $549,373
    @ $572.86 · 2025-06-13
    VOSBURG CRAIG
    Officer
    $5.55M
    @ $588.18 · 2025-06-12
    VOSBURG CRAIG
    Officer
    $8.22M
    @ $585.05 · 2025-06-05
    ARKELL SANDRA A
    Officer
    $218,223
    @ $577.31 · 2025-05-15
    ARKELL SANDRA A
    Officer
    $257,535
    @ $572.30 · 2025-05-12
    MIEBACH MICHAEL
    Chief Executive Officer
    $8.68M
    @ $550.16 · 2025-03-26
    MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
    Officer
    $3.81M
    @ $534.68 · 2025-03-19
    VOSBURG CRAIG
    Officer
    $6.12M
    @ $556.14 · 2025-03-05
    MIEBACH MICHAEL
    Chief Executive Officer
    $9.78M
    @ $553.76 · 2025-03-05
    VOSBURG CRAIG
    Officer
    $6.19M
    @ $562.72 · 2025-02-26
    MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
    Officer
    $6.18M
    @ $564.99 · 2025-02-18
    MIEBACH MICHAEL
    Chief Executive Officer
    $10.17M
    @ $564.95 · 2025-02-18
    VOSBURG CRAIG
    Officer
    $7.97M
    @ $565.00 · 2025-02-18
    SACHIN J. MEHRA
    Chief Financial Officer
    $2.36M
    @ $500.44 · 2024-11-01
    MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
    Officer
    $2.30M
    @ $491.03 · 2024-09-27
    MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
    Officer
    $2.29M
    @ $489.86 · 2024-09-20
    ARKELL SANDRA A
    Officer
    $550,000
    @ $500.00 · 2024-09-17
    MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
    Officer
    $2.31M
    @ $493.10 · 2024-09-13
    ARKELL SANDRA A
    Officer
    $528,000
    @ $480.00 · 2024-08-29
    MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $42.19M
    @ $468.80 · 2024-08-22
    MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $42.03M
    @ $467.02 · 2024-08-21
    SACHIN J. MEHRA
    Chief Financial Officer
    $3.16M
    @ $470.00 · 2024-08-16
    LING HAI
    Officer
    $1.36M
    @ $470.00 · 2024-08-16
    SACHIN J. MEHRA
    Chief Financial Officer
    $6.11M
    @ $455.00 · 2024-08-05
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

    Learn more →
    AVY
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(54/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    MA
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(67/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    AVY
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (54)
    MA
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (67)
    View AVY Full AnalysisView MA Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: AVY vs MA

    Is Avery Dennison Corporation or Mastercard Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, AVY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $17021531877 vs. price $170), compared to MA's -2.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $558 vs. $573).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, Avery Dennison Corporation or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

    MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while AVY scores 86/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is Avery Dennison Corporation in financial distress?▼

    AVY's Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MA scores 10.6 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Avery Dennison Corporation or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

    MA earns 56.0% ROIC versus AVY's 16.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, Avery Dennison Corporation's or Mastercard Incorporated's?▼

    MA's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to AVY's 94/100 (Very Safe). MA has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

    AVY vs MA: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io