SafetyMargin.ioSafetyMargin.io
BlogWatchlistCompare
Compare Stocks › ARES vs UNH

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, ARES is overvalued at $128, with a DCF intrinsic value of $72 and a margin of safety of -77%. UNH is overvalued at $407, with an intrinsic value of $367 and a margin of safety of -11%. Of the two, UNH has the wider margin of safety.

ARES
Ares Management Corporation
$128.15
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$406.97

Rewards

ARES
  • ★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Trailing P/E of 59.1x is 23% below the historical average of 77.2x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.95 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
UNH
  • ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

ARES
  • ⚠Share count has increased by 25% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
  • ⚠High leverage (1.51x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.36 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 20.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 7.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →
ARES
UNH
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$26.50B
N/A
FCF Yield
7.25%
59.06
Trailing P/E
23.23
18.31
Forward P/E
17.48
Quality & Moat
0.48%
ROIC
11.51%
12.88%
ROE
15.77%
100.00%
Gross Margin
20.05%
0.95
PEG Ratio
1.03
Balance Sheet Safety
1.51
Net Debt / Equity
0.43
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.58
4.21%
Dividend Yield
2.28%
ARES: 3Ties: 2UNH: 4
ARESUNH

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →
ARES

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →
ARES
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-2.63B
Δ Market Cap
+$23.73B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →
ARES
77.0% Overvalued
Price is 77.0% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $128.15
Fair Value: $72.40
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
10.8% Overvalued
Price is 10.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $406.97
Fair Value: $367.30
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →
ARES

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $407?

+14.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +4.2%

The market implies +14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →
ARES
47/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
UNH
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →
ARES
-2.63
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →
ARES
Insiders 11.2%Institutions 94.2%
No. of Institutional Holders1,147
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 89.6%Retail & Other 10.1%
No. of Institutional Holders4,333
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →
ARES
0
Buys (3M)
2
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $1.33M
OLIAN JUDY D.
Director
$59,726
@ $124.43 · 2026-02-20
BHUTANI ASHISH
Director
$1.27M
@ $126.61 · 2026-02-06
BHUTANI ASHISH
Director
$1.41M
@ $141.33 · 2025-03-11
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →
ARES
0
Sells (3M)
2
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $828,271
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM
General Counsel
$529,032
@ $134.92 · 2026-02-04
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM
General Counsel
$299,239
@ $161.84 · 2026-01-22
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM
General Counsel
$3.28M
@ $155.97 · 2025-10-01
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM
General Counsel
$3.75M
@ $178.40 · 2025-09-10
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
Chief Executive Officer
$16.98M
@ $153.17 · 2025-03-24
DEVEER ROBERT KIPP III
President
$15.00M
@ $190.02 · 2025-02-06
BERRY RYAN
Officer
$2.62M
@ $180.16 · 2024-12-11
DEVEER ROBERT KIPP III
Officer and Director
$53.15M
@ $177.16 · 2024-12-10
BERRY RYAN
Officer
$980,502
@ $180.14 · 2024-12-09
BERRY RYAN
Officer
$292,425
@ $175.00 · 2024-11-11
BERRY RYAN
Officer
$3.21M
@ $175.18 · 2024-11-06
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
2
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $944,910
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$455,910
@ $390.00 · 2026-08-21
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$205,000
@ $410.00 · 2026-08-05
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$284,000
@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →
ARES
FearGreed
😨Fear(40/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😏Greed(62/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →
ARES
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (40)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (62)
View ARES Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: ARES vs UNH

Is Ares Management Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, UNH trades at a -10.8% margin of safety (intrinsic value $367 vs. price $407), compared to ARES's -77.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $72 vs. $128).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Ares Management Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while ARES scores 47/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Ares Management Corporation in financial distress?▼

ARES's Altman Z-Score of 1.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNH scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Ares Management Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

UNH earns 11.5% ROIC versus ARES's 0.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Ares Management Corporation's or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

UNH's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to ARES's 54/100 (Borderline). UNH has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.