SafetyMargin.ioSafetyMargin.io
BlogWatchlistCompare
Compare Stocks › APO vs UNH

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, APO is undervalued at $138, with a DCF intrinsic value of $260 and a margin of safety of 47%. UNH is fairly valued at $401, with an intrinsic value of $376 and a margin of safety of -7%. Of the two, APO has the wider margin of safety.

APO
Apollo Global Management, Inc.
$137.50
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$400.96

Rewards

APO
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 24.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $5.94 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.73 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
UNH
  • ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

APO
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 86.5x is 338% above the historical average of 19.7x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.09 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $7.3M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 18.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 11.8% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →
APO
UNH
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$17.69B
N/A
FCF Yield
4.86%
86.48
Trailing P/E
30.17
12.96
Forward P/E
19.18
Quality & Moat
4.19%
ROIC
15.60%
8.49%
ROE
12.18%
35.22%
Gross Margin
18.80%
0.73
PEG Ratio
1.41
Balance Sheet Safety
Net cash
Net Debt / Equity
0.44
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.18
1.62%
Dividend Yield
2.21%
APO: 4Ties: 1UNH: 4
APOUNH

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →
APO

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →
APO
$4.94
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$9.60B
Δ Market Cap
+$47.44B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →
APO
47.1% Margin of Safety
Price is 47.1% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $137.50
Fair Value: $259.81
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
6.6% Overvalued
Price is 6.6% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $400.96
Fair Value: $376.14
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →
APO

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $401?

+14.1%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +9.8%

The market implies +14.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →
APO
34/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
UNH
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →
APO
-2.31
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →
APO
Insiders 27.1%Institutions 71.8%Retail & Other 1.1%
No. of Institutional Holders1,548
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.9%Retail & Other 13.8%
No. of Institutional Holders4,020
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →
APO
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
RICHARDS PAULINE D E
Director
$78,071
@ $141.95 · 2025-05-12
LB 2018 GST TRUST
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$67.70M
@ $111.39 · 2025-04-04
BELARDI JAMES RICHARD
Officer and Director
$281.00
@ $281.00 · 2025-02-28
O'NEILL MITRA
Director
$100,053
@ $108.40 · 2024-09-06
RICHARDS PAULINE D E
Director
$246,657
@ $104.92 · 2024-08-06
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
HEMSLEY STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$25.02M
@ $288.57 · 2025-05-16
REX JOHN F
President
$5.00M
@ $291.12 · 2025-05-16
GIL KRISTEN
Director
$1.00M
@ $271.17 · 2025-05-15
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
Director
$491,786
@ $320.80 · 2025-05-14
NOSEWORTHY JOHN H
Director
$93,647
@ $312.16 · 2025-05-14
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
Director
$511,575
@ $511.57 · 2025-01-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →
APO
2
Sells (3M)
6
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $12.23M
ZITO JOHN P.
Officer
$6.36M
@ $130.66 · 2026-05-27
KELLY MARTIN B
Chief Financial Officer
$942,514
@ $134.64 · 2026-05-14
CHATTERJEE WHITNEY A
Officer
$1.24M
@ $146.03 · 2025-12-10
KELLY MARTIN B
Chief Financial Officer
$788,434
@ $131.41 · 2025-12-01
KELLY MARTIN B
Chief Financial Officer
$2.25M
@ $145.11 · 2025-08-12
CHATTERJEE WHITNEY A
Officer
$657,149
@ $146.03 · 2025-08-06
KELLY MARTIN B
Chief Financial Officer
$530,272
@ $132.57 · 2025-05-06
BLACK LEON D
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$67.70M
@ $111.39 · 2025-04-04
BLACK LEON D
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$71.00M
@ $142.00 · 2025-03-19
KELLY MARTIN B
Chief Financial Officer
$791,378
@ $158.28 · 2025-02-13
KELLY MARTIN B
Chief Financial Officer
$1.74M
@ $173.66 · 2024-12-10
TANGUY LOUIS-JACQUES
Officer
$441,250
@ $176.50 · 2024-12-10
KELLY MARTIN B
Chief Financial Officer
$863,050
@ $172.61 · 2024-12-03
CHATTERJEE WHITNEY A
Officer
$1.07M
@ $173.36 · 2024-12-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
1
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $284,000
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
Officer
$284,000
@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
Chief Executive Officer
$179,645
@ $305.00 · 2025-06-10
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →
APO
FearGreed
😐Neutral(57/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😏Greed(68/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →
APO
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (57)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (68)
View APO Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: APO vs UNH

Is Apollo Global Management, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, APO trades at a 47.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $260 vs. price $138), compared to UNH's -6.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $376 vs. $401).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Apollo Global Management, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while APO scores 34/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Apollo Global Management, Inc. in financial distress?▼

APO's Altman Z-Score of 0.1 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNH scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Apollo Global Management, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

UNH earns 15.6% ROIC versus APO's 4.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Apollo Global Management, Inc.'s or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

APO's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to UNH's 84/100 (Very Safe). APO has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.