Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) vs NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, APO is undervalued at $138, with a DCF intrinsic value of $260 and a margin of safety of 47%. NVDA is overvalued at $211, with an intrinsic value of $163 and a margin of safety of -29%. Of the two, APO has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 24.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $5.94 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.73 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
- ★NVIDIA Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Gross margin of 74.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 193.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
Risks
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 86.5x is 338% above the historical average of 19.7x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.09 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $7.3M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Beneish M-Score of -1.06 flags financial patterns consistent with potential earnings manipulation — warrants further investigation.
- ⚠39 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $211?
The market implies +17.9% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +20.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: APO vs NVDA
Is Apollo Global Management, Inc. or NVIDIA Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, APO trades at a 47.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $260 vs. price $138), compared to NVDA's -29.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $163 vs. $211).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Apollo Global Management, Inc. or NVIDIA Corporation?▼
NVDA scores 69/100 (Narrow moat), while APO scores 34/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Apollo Global Management, Inc. in financial distress?▼
APO's Altman Z-Score of 0.1 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. NVDA scores 66.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Apollo Global Management, Inc. or NVIDIA Corporation?▼
NVDA earns 63.1% ROIC versus APO's 4.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Apollo Global Management, Inc.'s or NVIDIA Corporation's?▼
APO's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to NVDA's 91/100 (Very Safe). APO has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.
Does NVIDIA Corporation have accounting red flags?▼
NVDA's Beneish M-Score of -1.1 flags it as a likely earnings manipulator (above the -1.78 threshold). By contrast, APO scores -2.3, within the normal range. The Beneish model detects aggressive accounting through eight financial ratios.