Compare Stocks › APO vs MA

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) vs Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, APO is undervalued at $138, with a DCF intrinsic value of $260 and a margin of safety of 47%. MA is fairly valued at $490, with an intrinsic value of $571 and a margin of safety of 14%. Of the two, APO has the wider margin of safety.

APO

Apollo Global Management, Inc.

$137.50

Mastercard Incorporated

$489.79

Rewards

APO

★Free cash flow has grown at a 24.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $5.94 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
★PEG ratio of 0.73 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.

★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

APO

⚠Trailing P/E of 86.5x is 338% above the historical average of 19.7x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.09 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
⚠Insiders have sold $7.3M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

⚠High leverage (1.60x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠12 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

Key Valuation Metrics

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APO

Valuation

N/A

Free Cash Flow

$16.15B

N/A

FCF Yield

3.73%

86.48

Trailing P/E

28.31

12.96

Forward P/E

21.50

Quality & Moat

4.19%

ROIC

63.51%

8.49%

ROE

232.08%

35.22%

Gross Margin

100.00%

0.73

PEG Ratio

1.54

Balance Sheet Safety

Net cash

Net Debt / Equity

1.60

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

0.50

1.62%

Dividend Yield

0.69%

APO: 4Ties: 1MA: 4

APOMA

Historical Fundamentals

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APO

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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APO

$4.94

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$9.60B

Δ Market Cap

+$47.44B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

$5.62

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$31.68B

Δ Market Cap

+$177.96B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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APO

47.1% Margin of Safety

Price is 47.1% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $137.50

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $259.81

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

14.2% Margin of Safety

Price is 14.2% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $489.79

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $571.14

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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APO

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $490?

+13.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +12.0%

The market implies +13.0% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +12.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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APO

34/100

No Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though roic consistency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

99/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Forensic Accounting

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APO

-2.31

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

-2.53

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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APO

Insiders 27.1%Institutions 71.8%Retail & Other 1.1%

No. of Institutional Holders1,548

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.6%Retail & Other 8.3%

No. of Institutional Holders4,804

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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APO

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

RICHARDS PAULINE D E

Director

$78,071

@ $141.95 · 2025-05-12

LB 2018 GST TRUST

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$67.70M

@ $111.39 · 2025-04-04

BELARDI JAMES RICHARD

Officer and Director

$281.00

@ $281.00 · 2025-02-28

O'NEILL MITRA

Director

$100,053

@ $108.40 · 2024-09-06

RICHARDS PAULINE D E

Director

$246,657

@ $104.92 · 2024-08-06

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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APO

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $12.23M

ZITO JOHN P.

Officer

$6.36M

@ $130.66 · 2026-05-27

KELLY MARTIN B

Chief Financial Officer

$942,514

@ $134.64 · 2026-05-14

CHATTERJEE WHITNEY A

Officer

$1.24M

@ $146.03 · 2025-12-10

KELLY MARTIN B

Chief Financial Officer

$788,434

@ $131.41 · 2025-12-01

KELLY MARTIN B

Chief Financial Officer

$2.25M

@ $145.11 · 2025-08-12

CHATTERJEE WHITNEY A

Officer

$657,149

@ $146.03 · 2025-08-06

KELLY MARTIN B

Chief Financial Officer

$530,272

@ $132.57 · 2025-05-06

BLACK LEON D

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$67.70M

@ $111.39 · 2025-04-04

BLACK LEON D

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$71.00M

@ $142.00 · 2025-03-19

KELLY MARTIN B

Chief Financial Officer

$791,378

@ $158.28 · 2025-02-13

KELLY MARTIN B

Chief Financial Officer

$1.74M

@ $173.66 · 2024-12-10

TANGUY LOUIS-JACQUES

Officer

$441,250

@ $176.50 · 2024-12-10

KELLY MARTIN B

Chief Financial Officer

$863,050

@ $172.61 · 2024-12-03

CHATTERJEE WHITNEY A

Officer

$1.07M

@ $173.36 · 2024-12-03

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $39.22M

LING HAI

Officer

$4.48M

@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.20M

@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02

LING HAI

Officer

$2.69M

@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.46M

@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.83M

@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$178,049

@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$601,447

@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$173,910

@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$508,474

@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.02M

@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$1.76M

@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$549,373

@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.55M

@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$8.22M

@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$218,223

@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$257,535

@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$8.68M

@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$3.81M

@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$9.78M

@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.12M

@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.19M

@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$6.18M

@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$10.17M

@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$7.97M

@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.36M

@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.30M

@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.29M

@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$550,000

@ $500.00 · 2024-09-17

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.31M

@ $493.10 · 2024-09-13

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$528,000

@ $480.00 · 2024-08-29

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.19M

@ $468.80 · 2024-08-22

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.03M

@ $467.02 · 2024-08-21

LING HAI

Officer

$1.36M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.16M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$6.11M

@ $455.00 · 2024-08-05

LING HAI

Officer

$1.35M

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$512,006

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$4.07M

@ $451.06 · 2024-06-20

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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APO

😐Neutral(57/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

😐Neutral(47/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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APO

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (57)

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (47)

View APO Full Analysis View MA Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: APO vs MA

Is Apollo Global Management, Inc. or Mastercard Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, APO trades at a 47.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $260 vs. price $138), compared to MA's 14.2% margin of safety (intrinsic $571 vs. $490).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Apollo Global Management, Inc. or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while APO scores 34/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Apollo Global Management, Inc. in financial distress?▼

APO's Altman Z-Score of 0.1 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MA scores 10.6 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Apollo Global Management, Inc. or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

MA earns 63.5% ROIC versus APO's 4.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Apollo Global Management, Inc.'s or Mastercard Incorporated's?▼

MA's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to APO's 94/100 (Very Safe). MA has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.