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Compare Stocks › APD vs LLY

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, APD is overvalued at $280, with a DCF intrinsic value of $141 and a margin of safety of -98%. LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with an intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

APD
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
$280.21
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57

Rewards

APD
    LLY
    • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
    • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
    • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

    Risks

    APD
    • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.10 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
    • ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 4.5x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
    LLY
    • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
    • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    APD
    LLY
    Valuation
    $-3.52B
    Free Cash Flow
    $9.16B
    -5.64%
    FCF Yield
    0.93%
    29.56
    Trailing P/E
    39.00
    19.69
    Forward P/E
    24.69
    Quality & Moat
    6.35%
    ROIC
    37.80%
    12.35%
    ROE
    107.46%
    31.98%
    Gross Margin
    82.83%
    2.10
    PEG Ratio
    1.50
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.96
    Net Debt / Equity
    1.22
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    4.51
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.05
    2.58%
    Dividend Yield
    0.56%
    APD: 4Ties: 1LLY: 7
    APDLLY

    Historical Fundamentals

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    APD

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    LLY

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    APD
    $-12.31
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $1.09B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-13.40B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    LLY
    $27.49
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $22.34B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$614.01B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    APD
    Insufficient Data
    Enter initial FCF to calculate intrinsic value
    Current Price: $280.21
    Fair Value: $0.00
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    LLY
    3.9% Margin of Safety
    Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $1098.57
    Fair Value: $1143.11
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    APD

    Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

    LLY

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

    +20.0%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +31.4%

    The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    Economic Moat Score

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    APD
    37/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    LLY
    73/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    APD
    -2.50
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    LLY
    -1.83
    Possible Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    APD
    Insiders 1.9%Institutions 93.4%Retail & Other 4.7%
    No. of Institutional Holders2,261
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    LLY
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
    No. of Institutional Holders5,580
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    APD
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    EVANS ANDREW W
    Director
    $1,475
    @ $295.00 · 2025-04-02
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    LLY
    0
    Buys (3M)
    8
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $4.54M
    MONTARCE LUCAS E
    Chief Financial Officer
    $494,627
    @ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
    VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
    Officer
    $647,360
    @ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
    ALVAREZ RALPH
    Director
    $500,473
    @ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
    FYRWALD J. ERIK
    Director
    $1.01M
    @ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
    RICKS DAVID A
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.05M
    @ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
    SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
    Officer
    $634,405
    @ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
    SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
    Director
    $75,018
    @ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
    JACKSON JAMERE
    Director
    $127,913
    @ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    APD
    1
    Sells (3M)
    2
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $1.22M
    SCHAEFFER MELISSA N
    Chief Financial Officer
    $824,405
    @ $303.76 · 2026-05-01
    BRIFO VICTORIA
    Officer
    $397,344
    @ $292.38 · 2025-08-05
    EVANS ANDREW W
    Director
    $1,416
    @ $283.20 · 2025-04-03
    NELSON WALTER L
    Officer
    $181,706
    @ $308.50 · 2025-03-05
    KURT LEFEVERE
    Officer
    $474,255
    @ $316.17 · 2025-02-20
    BRIFO VICTORIA
    Officer
    $745,967
    @ $315.82 · 2025-02-18
    MOK WILBUR
    Officer
    $410,644
    @ $315.88 · 2025-02-18
    BOLS IVO
    Officer
    $5.65M
    @ $313.82 · 2025-02-18
    GALOVICH BRIAN
    Chief Investment Officer
    $659,685
    @ $315.79 · 2025-02-13
    HABABOU AHMED
    Officer
    $495,216
    @ $307.97 · 2025-02-11
    SCHAEFFER MELISSA N
    Chief Financial Officer
    $993,566
    @ $307.32 · 2025-02-10
    MAIONE FRANCESCO
    Officer
    $616,896
    @ $306.00 · 2025-02-10
    MAJOR SEAN JOHN D
    General Counsel
    $1.42M
    @ $315.46 · 2025-02-07
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    LLY
    2
    Sells (3M)
    41
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $3.86B
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $2.88M
    @ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $15.75M
    @ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $322.38M
    @ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $1.51M
    @ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.90M
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $2.85M
    @ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260,409
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.08M
    @ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $17.34M
    @ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $152.06M
    @ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $111.50M
    @ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $39.07M
    @ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $176.10M
    @ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $62.31M
    @ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $10.19M
    @ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $183.33M
    @ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $1.01M
    @ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $48.02M
    @ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $308.41M
    @ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $279.35M
    @ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $16.41M
    @ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $167.09M
    @ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $38.47M
    @ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $479,038
    @ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $266.65M
    @ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260.17M
    @ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.16M
    @ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $9.04M
    @ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.23M
    @ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $22.72M
    @ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $137.04M
    @ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.22M
    @ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $92.50M
    @ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $107.36M
    @ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $177.29M
    @ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.79M
    @ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $18.06M
    @ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $81.53M
    @ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $734,930
    @ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $783,762
    @ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $225.42M
    @ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $716,410
    @ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $936,550
    @ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

    Learn more →
    APD
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(60/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    LLY
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(61/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

    Learn more →
    APD
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (60)
    LLY
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
    View APD Full AnalysisView LLY Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: APD vs LLY

    Is Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1143 vs. price $1099), compared to APD's -98.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $141 vs. $280).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

    LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while APD scores 37/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. in financial distress?▼

    APD's Altman Z-Score of 2.6 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which company has better free cash flow, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

    Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) generates a 0.9% free cash flow yield, compared to Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s -5.6%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

    LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus APD's 6.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s or Eli Lilly and Company's?▼

    LLY's dividend earns a safety score of 64/100 (Safe), compared to APD's 59/100 (Borderline). LLY has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.