APA Corporation (APA) vs QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, APA is undervalued at $33, with a DCF intrinsic value of $43 and a margin of safety of 24%. QCOM is overvalued at $226, with an intrinsic value of $128 and a margin of safety of -76%. Of the two, APA has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★APA Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 72.3% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★FCF yield of 14.5% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
- ★QUALCOMM Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★QUALCOMM Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 23.3% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
Risks
- ⚠Share count has increased by 13% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 7.7x is 26% above the historical average of 6.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.41 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠FCF yield of 5.4% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠15 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $33?
Market above historical growth — verify catalysts.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $226?
The market implies +17.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +7.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.
Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Revenue Predictability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: APA vs QCOM
Is APA Corporation or QUALCOMM Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, APA trades at a 23.6% margin of safety (intrinsic value $43 vs. price $33), compared to QCOM's -76.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $128 vs. $226).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, APA Corporation or QUALCOMM Incorporated?▼
QCOM scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while APA scores 44/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is APA Corporation in financial distress?▼
APA's Altman Z-Score of 1.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. QCOM scores 6.5 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, APA Corporation or QUALCOMM Incorporated?▼
APA Corporation (APA) generates a 14.5% free cash flow yield, compared to QUALCOMM Incorporated's 5.4%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, APA Corporation or QUALCOMM Incorporated?▼
APA earns 21.3% ROIC versus QCOM's 18.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, APA Corporation's or QUALCOMM Incorporated's?▼
APA's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to QCOM's 84/100 (Very Safe). APA has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.