Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) vs Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, AMD is overvalued at $550, with a DCF intrinsic value of $219 and a margin of safety of -150%. MPC is overvalued at $422, with an intrinsic value of $324 and a margin of safety of -30%. Of the two, MPC has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 29.3% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.01 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Management has timed buybacks well — 3 out of 4 years showed value-accretive repurchases.
- ★Share count has been reduced by 35% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
Risks
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.0% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠9 insider sales totaling $52.2M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 12.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $550?
The market implies +34.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +30.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $422?
The market implies +15.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: AMD vs MPC
Is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, MPC trades at a -30.4% margin of safety (intrinsic value $324 vs. price $422), compared to AMD's -150.4% margin of safety (intrinsic $219 vs. $550).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼
MPC scores 54/100 (Narrow moat), while AMD scores 41/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) generates a 7.8% free cash flow yield, compared to Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s 1.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼
MPC earns 27.5% ROIC versus AMD's 7.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.