Amcor plc (AMCR) vs Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, AMCR is overvalued at $41, with a DCF intrinsic value of $0 and a margin of safety of -100%. TXN is overvalued at $323, with an intrinsic value of $283 and a margin of safety of -14%. Of the two, TXN has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★PEG ratio of 0.57 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
- ★Texas Instruments Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Altman Z-Score of 8.73 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 5.8 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 19.1% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Share count has increased by 55% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 55.3x is 104% above the historical average of 27.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $41?
The market implies +20.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +17.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $323?
The market implies +22.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +32.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: AMCR vs TXN
Is Amcor plc or Texas Instruments Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, TXN trades at a -13.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $283 vs. price $323), compared to AMCR's -100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $0 vs. $41).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Amcor plc or Texas Instruments Incorporated?▼
AMCR scores 66/100 (Narrow moat), while TXN scores 48/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Amcor plc in financial distress?▼
AMCR's Altman Z-Score of 1.1 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. TXN scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Amcor plc or Texas Instruments Incorporated?▼
Amcor plc (AMCR) generates a 4.3% free cash flow yield, compared to Texas Instruments Incorporated's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Amcor plc or Texas Instruments Incorporated?▼
TXN earns 17.9% ROIC versus AMCR's 5.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Amcor plc's or Texas Instruments Incorporated's?▼
TXN's dividend earns a safety score of 34/100 (Unsafe), compared to AMCR's 15/100 (Unsafe). TXN has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.
Does Amcor plc have accounting red flags?▼
AMCR's Beneish M-Score of -1.7 flags it as a likely earnings manipulator (above the -1.78 threshold). By contrast, TXN scores -2.7, within the normal range. The Beneish model detects aggressive accounting through eight financial ratios.