Amcor plc (AMCR) vs Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, AMCR is fairly valued at $47, with a DCF intrinsic value of $47 and a margin of safety of -1%. MSFT is undervalued at $522, with an intrinsic value of $802 and a margin of safety of 35%. Of the two, MSFT has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 18.7% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Microsoft Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 67.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Microsoft Corporation scores 84/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
- ⚠Gross margin of 20.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Share count has increased by 60% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠FCF yield of 6.9% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $75.4M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $47?
The market implies +8.8% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +10.1%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $522?
The market implies +13.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +22.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: AMCR vs MSFT
Is Amcor plc or Microsoft Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, MSFT trades at a 34.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $802 vs. price $522), compared to AMCR's -0.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $47 vs. $47).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Amcor plc or Microsoft Corporation?▼
MSFT scores 84/100 (Wide moat), while AMCR scores 51/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Amcor plc in financial distress?▼
AMCR's Altman Z-Score of 1.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MSFT scores 9.1 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Amcor plc or Microsoft Corporation?▼
Amcor plc (AMCR) generates a 6.9% free cash flow yield, compared to Microsoft Corporation's 1.7%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Amcor plc or Microsoft Corporation?▼
MSFT earns 22.5% ROIC versus AMCR's 6.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Amcor plc's or Microsoft Corporation's?▼
MSFT's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to AMCR's 18/100 (Unsafe). MSFT has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.