Compare Stocks › ALL vs LLY
The Allstate Corporation (ALL) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
ALL
The Allstate Corporation
$204.07
VS
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$917.50
Rewards
ALL
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 28.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $1.61 of market value — management is creating shareholder value.
- ★FCF yield of 16.9% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
LLY
- ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 83.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
ALL
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.65 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠8 insider sales totaling $32.1M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
LLY
- ⚠FCF yield of 0.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $330.9M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →ALL
LLY
Valuation
$8.92B
Free Cash Flow
$5.96B
16.85%
FCF Yield
0.73%
5.36
Trailing P/E
40.00
8.11
Forward P/E
21.79
Quality & Moat
40.55%
ROIC
32.84%
33.23%
ROE
77.78%
31.30%
Gross Margin
83.04%
0.05
PEG Ratio
0.78
Balance Sheet Safety
0.25
Debt / Equity
1.65
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.17
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.15
2.12%
Dividend Yield
0.68%
ALL: 9Ties: 1LLY: 2
ALLLLY
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →ALL
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
LLY
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →ALL
$1.61
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Creator
Σ Retained
$11.50B
Δ Market Cap
+$18.48B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
LLY
$27.47
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$613.62B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →ALL
65.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 65.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $204.07
Strongly undervalued
Fairly valued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $598.37
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
LLY
12.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 12.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $917.50
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $1048.80
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →ALL
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $204?
-11.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -8.9%
The market implies -11.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding -8.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
LLY
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $918?
+17.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +35.1%
The market implies +17.7% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +35.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →ALL
39/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →ALL
-2.40
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →ALL
Insiders 0.6%Institutions 82.7%Retail & Other 16.7%
No. of Institutional Holders2,125
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 84.7%Retail & Other 15.1%
No. of Institutional Holders5,561
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →ALL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
DEBIASE CHRISTINE MARIE
General Counsel
$1,339
@ $191.29 · 2024-04-01
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →ALL
8
Sells (3M)
21
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $60.79M
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.51M
@ $208.90 · 2026-03-16
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.57M
@ $212.27 · 2026-03-02
MERTEN JESSE E
Divisional Officer
$7.09M
@ $208.57 · 2026-02-25
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.54M
@ $210.48 · 2026-02-17
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.37M
@ $200.71 · 2026-02-02
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.49M
@ $207.83 · 2026-01-12
GUPTA SUREN K
Divisional Officer
$4.11M
@ $210.00 · 2026-01-07
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.44M
@ $204.77 · 2026-01-02
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.53M
@ $210.04 · 2025-12-15
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.57M
@ $212.68 · 2025-12-01
GUPTA SUREN K
Divisional Officer
$975,751
@ $215.11 · 2025-11-28
GUPTA SUREN K
Divisional Officer
$129,010
@ $215.02 · 2025-11-24
GUPTA SUREN K
Divisional Officer
$4.71M
@ $215.21 · 2025-11-21
GUPTA SUREN K
Divisional Officer
$86,086
@ $215.22 · 2025-11-17
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.58M
@ $213.20 · 2025-11-17
GUPTA SUREN K
Divisional Officer
$301,031
@ $215.02 · 2025-11-14
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.18M
@ $189.40 · 2025-11-03
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.26M
@ $194.02 · 2025-10-20
WILSON THOMAS JOSEPH II
Chief Executive Officer
$3.53M
@ $210.19 · 2025-10-06
PRINDIVILLE MARK Q
Officer of Subsidiary Company
$1.52M
@ $206.43 · 2025-08-22
SPRIESER JUDITH A.
Director
$272,146
@ $209.34 · 2025-06-02
MERTEN JESSE E
Chief Financial Officer
$7.48M
@ $186.53 · 2025-02-10
DUGENSKE JOHN E
Divisional Officer
$6.96M
@ $191.38 · 2024-09-20
TOOHEY ROBERT
Officer
$3.01M
@ $180.17 · 2024-08-19
BRADY ELIZABETH
Officer of Subsidiary Company
$8.86M
@ $179.09 · 2024-08-16
GUPTA SUREN K
Divisional Officer
$8.11M
@ $177.28 · 2024-07-18
SPRIESER JUDITH A.
Director
$187,573
@ $166.88 · 2024-06-03
DUGENSKE JOHN E
Divisional Officer
$5.28M
@ $170.20 · 2024-03-26
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
LLY
5
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.84B
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$818,240
@ $818.24 · 2025-03-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$204.33M
@ $928.76 · 2025-03-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →ALL
😐Neutral(53/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
LLY
😐Neutral(43/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →ALL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (53)
LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (43)