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Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) vs Morgan Stanley (MS)

ALGN
Align Technology, Inc.
$176.25
VS
MS
Morgan Stanley
$158.55

Rewards

ALGN
  • ★Align Technology, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Gross margin of 69.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Align Technology, Inc. scores 91/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
MS
  • ★Gross margin of 87.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $6.65 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.75 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.

Risks

ALGN
    MS
    • ⚠High leverage (4.56x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
    • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
    • ⚠7 insider sales totaling $25.2M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    ALGN
    MS
    Valuation
    $483.69M
    Free Cash Flow
    N/A
    3.82%
    FCF Yield
    N/A
    31.14
    Trailing P/E
    15.53
    14.37
    Forward P/E
    12.89
    Quality & Moat
    17.13%
    ROIC
    3.43%
    10.13%
    ROE
    14.42%
    69.80%
    Gross Margin
    87.06%
    0.87
    PEG Ratio
    0.75
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.03
    Debt / Equity
    4.56
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    -1.15
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    N/A
    N/A
    Dividend Yield
    2.52%
    ALGN: 2Ties: 1MS: 5
    ALGNMS

    Historical Fundamentals

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    ALGN

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    MS

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    ALGN
    $-4.04
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $1.28B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-5.15B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    MS
    $6.65
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $20.84B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$138.59B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    ALGN
    23.3% Overvalued
    Price is 23.3% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $176.25
    Fair Value: $142.95
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    MS
    45.5% Margin of Safety
    Price is 45.5% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $158.55
    Fair Value: $290.92
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    ALGN

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $176?

    +12.5%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +10.3%

    The market implies +12.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +10.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    MS

    Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

    Economic Moat Score

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    ALGN
    91/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
    MS
    32/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    ALGN
    -2.52
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    MS
    -2.09
    Possible Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    ALGN
    Insiders 6.8%Institutions 96.2%
    No. of Institutional Holders966
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    MS
    Insiders 24.0%Institutions 62.7%Retail & Other 13.3%
    No. of Institutional Holders3,181
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    ALGN
    0
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $996,131
    HOGAN JOSEPH M
    Chief Executive Officer
    $996,131
    @ $131.49 · 2025-08-01
    LARKIN CHARLES RAYMOND JR
    Director
    $1.53M
    @ $235.33 · 2024-08-15
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    MS
    0
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $5,630
    PETERSON DOUGLAS L
    Director
    $5,630
    @ $156.39 · 2025-10-17
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    ALGN
    1
    Sells (3M)
    1
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $1.51M
    MORICI JOHN F.
    Chief Financial Officer
    $1.51M
    @ $189.31 · 2026-02-18
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    MS
    7
    Sells (3M)
    16
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $62.45M
    SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
    President
    $6.02M
    @ $182.61 · 2026-01-30
    GROSSMAN ERIC F
    Officer
    $3.97M
    @ $184.00 · 2026-01-20
    CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
    Officer
    $1.44M
    @ $183.45 · 2026-01-20
    YESHAYA SHARON
    Chief Financial Officer
    $2.94M
    @ $185.77 · 2026-01-20
    SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
    Officer
    $1.55M
    @ $182.08 · 2026-01-20
    PIZZI MICHAEL A
    Officer
    $3.69M
    @ $184.55 · 2026-01-20
    SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
    President
    $5.57M
    @ $183.62 · 2026-01-20
    PICK EDWARD N.
    Chief Executive Officer
    $16.43M
    @ $164.34 · 2025-10-31
    GROSSMAN ERIC F
    Officer
    $1.69M
    @ $141.12 · 2025-07-17
    SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
    President
    $4.09M
    @ $141.13 · 2025-07-17
    SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
    Officer
    $2.81M
    @ $140.30 · 2025-07-17
    PIZZI MICHAEL A
    Officer
    $2.53M
    @ $140.62 · 2025-07-17
    SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
    President
    $3.70M
    @ $127.37 · 2025-05-12
    HERZ ROBERT H
    Director
    $95,459
    @ $119.32 · 2025-05-02
    SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
    President
    $4.80M
    @ $120.00 · 2025-05-02
    GROSSMAN ERIC F
    Officer
    $1.12M
    @ $111.65 · 2025-04-15
    CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
    Officer
    $1.15M
    @ $138.06 · 2025-01-22
    GROSSMAN ERIC F
    Officer
    $1.78M
    @ $136.20 · 2025-01-21
    SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
    President
    $5.00M
    @ $136.61 · 2025-01-21
    AKRAM RAJA
    Chief Financial Officer
    $2.38M
    @ $136.01 · 2025-01-21
    PIZZI MICHAEL A
    Officer
    $2.52M
    @ $136.92 · 2025-01-21
    SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
    President
    $4.20M
    @ $136.43 · 2025-01-21
    CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
    Officer
    $368,375
    @ $105.25 · 2024-07-26
    AKRAM RAJA
    Officer
    $797,764
    @ $106.37 · 2024-07-18
    SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
    President
    $4.26M
    @ $106.54 · 2024-07-17
    HERZ ROBERT H
    Director
    $106,621
    @ $106.62 · 2024-07-17
    CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
    Officer
    $692,663
    @ $99.61 · 2024-05-14
    GORMAN JAMES P
    Officer and Director
    $9.02M
    @ $90.21 · 2024-04-18
    SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
    Officer
    $1.01M
    @ $90.09 · 2024-04-17
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    ALGN
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(46/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    MS
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(48/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    ALGN
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (46)
    MS
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (48)
    View ALGN Full AnalysisView MS Full Analysis