Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
Rewards
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 13.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $11.75 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★5 insider purchases over the past 12 months with a buy/sell ratio above 3:1 — a sustained pattern of insider confidence.
- ★Dividend yield of 3.15% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.
Risks
- ⚠Share count has increased by 21% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.31 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $10.4M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 7.9 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 18.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠FCF yield of 5.4% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $210?
The market implies +18.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +16.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $280?
The market implies +11.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.