Compare Stocks › AJG vs GS
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) vs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$209.68
VS
GS
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
$809.50
Rewards
AJG
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 13.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $11.75 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
GS
- ★Gross margin of 82.9% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Share count has been reduced by 11% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $5.60 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
AJG
- ⚠Share count has increased by 21% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.31 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $10.4M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
GS
- ⚠The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. scores only 26/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
- ⚠High leverage (5.96x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.25 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →AJG
GS
Valuation
$1.78B
Free Cash Flow
N/A
3.31%
FCF Yield
N/A
36.47
Trailing P/E
15.77
14.12
Forward P/E
12.45
Quality & Moat
2.90%
ROIC
2.06%
6.40%
ROE
13.00%
42.16%
Gross Margin
82.88%
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.91
Balance Sheet Safety
0.58
Debt / Equity
5.96
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
3.51
Net Debt / EBITDA
N/A
1.34%
Dividend Yield
2.22%
AJG: 2Ties: 1GS: 5
AJGGS
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →AJG
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
GS
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →AJG
$11.75
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$2.26B
Δ Market Cap
+$26.56B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
GS
$5.60
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$26.00B
Δ Market Cap
+$145.60B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →AJG
86.2% Overvalued
Price is 86.2% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $209.68
Strongly undervalued
Fairly valued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $112.64
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
GS
65.1% Margin of Safety
Price is 65.1% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $809.50
Strongly undervalued
Fairly valued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $2319.70
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →AJG
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $210?
+18.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +16.1%
The market implies +18.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +16.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
GS
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →AJG
66/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
GS
26/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →AJG
-1.94
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
GS
-2.00
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →AJG
Insiders 0.9%Institutions 93.5%Retail & Other 5.5%
No. of Institutional Holders1,732
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
GS
Insiders 0.5%Institutions 75.7%Retail & Other 23.8%
No. of Institutional Holders3,730
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →AJG
0
Buys (3M)
2
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $1.01M
PESCH MICHAEL ROBERT
Officer
$988,488
@ $247.12 · 2025-11-03
PESCH MICHAEL ROBERT
President
$18,784
@ $318.37 · 2025-06-18
GALLAGHER PATRICK MURPHY
Chief Operating Officer
$316,814
@ $284.14 · 2024-12-23
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
GS
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $2.00M
HESS JOHN B JR.
Director
$2.00M
@ $511.68 · 2025-04-15
JOHNSON KEVIN RONALD
Director
$1.49M
@ $619.02 · 2025-01-17
FLAHERTY MARK A
Director
$29,545
@ $360.30 · 2024-09-27
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →AJG
5
Sells (3M)
17
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $41.59M
HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
$864,766
@ $227.57 · 2026-03-06
MEAD CHRISTOPHER E.
Officer
$908,472
@ $227.12 · 2026-03-05
GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR
Chief Executive Officer
$6.32M
@ $230.31 · 2026-03-02
MEAD CHRISTOPHER E.
Officer
$1.03M
@ $258.11 · 2025-12-23
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$1.29M
@ $258.05 · 2025-12-22
BAY WALTER D
General Counsel
$4.04M
@ $255.00 · 2025-12-19
MEAD CHRISTOPHER E.
Officer
$313,425
@ $250.74 · 2025-11-21
CARY RICHARD C
Officer
$1.57M
@ $261.00 · 2025-11-18
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$4.19M
@ $299.42 · 2025-09-22
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$899,334
@ $299.78 · 2025-09-09
HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
$3.83M
@ $297.60 · 2025-09-08
CARY RICHARD C
Officer
$1.22M
@ $306.00 · 2025-08-21
HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
$3.54M
@ $337.17 · 2025-05-21
PIETRUCHA SUSAN E
Officer
$4.65M
@ $344.13 · 2025-05-19
JOHNSON DAVID S
Director
$342,038
@ $342.04 · 2025-05-16
CARY RICHARD C
Officer
$4.07M
@ $339.51 · 2025-05-07
HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
$2.51M
@ $333.59 · 2025-03-21
GALLAGHER PATRICK MURPHY
Chief Operating Officer
$868,870
@ $332.52 · 2025-02-27
ZIEBELL WILLIAM F
Officer
$2.29M
@ $324.41 · 2025-02-18
BAY WALTER D
General Counsel
$3.27M
@ $326.62 · 2025-02-13
JOHNSON DAVID S
Director
$104,670
@ $322.06 · 2025-02-12
CARY RICHARD C
Officer
$3.23M
@ $322.99 · 2025-02-10
BARRAT SHERRY S
Director
$760,831
@ $304.33 · 2025-02-03
MEAD CHRISTOPHER E.
Officer
$877,569
@ $302.61 · 2025-02-03
HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
$7.06M
@ $306.59 · 2025-02-03
BARRAT SHERRY S
Director
$258,698
@ $294.64 · 2024-11-08
MEAD CHRISTOPHER E.
Officer
$803,600
@ $287.00 · 2024-10-28
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$1.99M
@ $284.70 · 2024-10-28
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$1.99M
@ $284.68 · 2024-09-19
PESCH MICHAEL ROBERT
President
$2.10M
@ $296.20 · 2024-09-13
GALLAGHER THOMAS JOSEPH
President
$4.24M
@ $282.96 · 2024-08-08
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$2.48M
@ $285.07 · 2024-08-01
BAY WALTER D
General Counsel
$1.80M
@ $284.06 · 2024-07-30
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
GS
6
Sells (3M)
11
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $59.99M
COLEMAN DENIS P.
Chief Financial Officer
$10.94M
@ $941.57 · 2026-02-09
SOLOMON DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
$255,387
@ $938.92 · 2026-01-29
HALIO CAREY
Officer
$2.64M
@ $927.17 · 2026-01-27
FREDMAN SHEARA J.
Officer
$4.49M
@ $923.75 · 2026-01-23
RUEMMLER KATHRYN H
General Counsel
$8.89M
@ $927.51 · 2026-01-23
HALIO CAREY
Officer
$1.62M
@ $920.62 · 2026-01-23
WALDRON JOHN E.
President
$13.69M
@ $750.30 · 2025-08-28
COLEMAN DENIS P.
Chief Financial Officer
$5.41M
@ $724.40 · 2025-07-25
ROGERS JOHN F W
Officer
$4.31M
@ $717.39 · 2025-07-23
SOLOMON DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
$4.71M
@ $712.31 · 2025-07-23
SOLOMON DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
$3.04M
@ $607.17 · 2025-05-14
SOLOMON DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
$1.50M
@ $622.15 · 2025-02-26
GOLTEN ALEXANDER SIMON
Officer
$3.31M
@ $636.25 · 2025-01-28
HALIO CAREY
Officer and Treasurer
$2.32M
@ $636.74 · 2025-01-24
FREDMAN SHEARA J.
Officer
$1.28M
@ $627.01 · 2025-01-21
RUEMMLER KATHRYN H
General Counsel
$4.76M
@ $634.69 · 2025-01-21
HALIO CAREY
Officer
$965,120
@ $624.67 · 2025-01-21
VINIAR DAVID A
Director
$3.06M
@ $612.08 · 2024-11-29
SOLOMON DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
$4.00M
@ $610.91 · 2024-11-29
FREDMAN SHEARA J.
Officer
$1.77M
@ $594.51 · 2024-11-06
COLEMAN DENIS P.
Chief Financial Officer
$7.67M
@ $593.03 · 2024-11-06
ROGERS JOHN F W
Officer
$3.83M
@ $596.36 · 2024-11-06
SOLOMON DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
$3.00M
@ $500.29 · 2024-08-15
VINIAR DAVID A
Director
$2.51M
@ $502.43 · 2024-07-16
SOLOMON DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
$3.02M
@ $457.32 · 2024-05-10
VINIAR DAVID A
Director
$2.16M
@ $432.25 · 2024-04-29
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →AJG
😨Fear(30/100)
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
GS
😐Neutral(48/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →AJG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (30)
GS
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (48)