Compare Stocks › AJG vs AXP
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) vs American Express Company (AXP)
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$209.68
VS
AXP
American Express Company
$294.93
Rewards
AJG
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 13.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $11.75 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
AXP
- ★Gross margin of 63.5% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $6.18 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
AJG
- ⚠Share count has increased by 21% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.31 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $10.4M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
AXP
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.93 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠7 insider sales totaling $36.4M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 5.9% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →AJG
AXP
Valuation
$1.78B
Free Cash Flow
N/A
3.31%
FCF Yield
N/A
36.47
Trailing P/E
19.19
14.12
Forward P/E
14.64
Quality & Moat
2.90%
ROIC
9.49%
6.40%
ROE
31.97%
42.16%
Gross Margin
63.47%
N/A
PEG Ratio
1.16
Balance Sheet Safety
0.58
Debt / Equity
1.91
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
3.51
Net Debt / EBITDA
N/A
1.34%
Dividend Yield
1.29%
AJG: 1Ties: 3AXP: 4
AJGAXP
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →AJG
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
AXP
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →AJG
$11.75
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$2.26B
Δ Market Cap
+$26.56B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
AXP
$6.18
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$23.29B
Δ Market Cap
+$144.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →AJG
86.2% Overvalued
Price is 86.2% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $209.68
Strongly undervalued
Fairly valued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $112.64
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
AXP
38.6% Margin of Safety
Price is 38.6% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $294.93
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $480.21
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →AJG
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $210?
+18.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +16.1%
The market implies +18.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +16.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
AXP
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →AJG
66/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
AXP
40/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →AJG
-1.94
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
AXP
-2.51
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →AJG
Insiders 0.9%Institutions 93.5%Retail & Other 5.5%
No. of Institutional Holders1,732
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
AXP
Insiders 22.2%Institutions 64.8%Retail & Other 12.9%
No. of Institutional Holders3,749
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →AJG
0
Buys (3M)
2
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $1.01M
PESCH MICHAEL ROBERT
Officer
$988,488
@ $247.12 · 2025-11-03
PESCH MICHAEL ROBERT
President
$18,784
@ $318.37 · 2025-06-18
GALLAGHER PATRICK MURPHY
Chief Operating Officer
$316,814
@ $284.14 · 2024-12-23
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
AXP
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4,054
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4,054
@ $176.26 · 2025-04-09
ANGELAKIS MICHAEL J
Director
$998,593
@ $269.89 · 2025-03-07
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →AJG
5
Sells (3M)
17
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $41.59M
HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
$864,766
@ $227.57 · 2026-03-06
MEAD CHRISTOPHER E.
Officer
$908,472
@ $227.12 · 2026-03-05
GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR
Chief Executive Officer
$6.32M
@ $230.31 · 2026-03-02
MEAD CHRISTOPHER E.
Officer
$1.03M
@ $258.11 · 2025-12-23
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$1.29M
@ $258.05 · 2025-12-22
BAY WALTER D
General Counsel
$4.04M
@ $255.00 · 2025-12-19
MEAD CHRISTOPHER E.
Officer
$313,425
@ $250.74 · 2025-11-21
CARY RICHARD C
Officer
$1.57M
@ $261.00 · 2025-11-18
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$4.19M
@ $299.42 · 2025-09-22
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$899,334
@ $299.78 · 2025-09-09
HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
$3.83M
@ $297.60 · 2025-09-08
CARY RICHARD C
Officer
$1.22M
@ $306.00 · 2025-08-21
HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
$3.54M
@ $337.17 · 2025-05-21
PIETRUCHA SUSAN E
Officer
$4.65M
@ $344.13 · 2025-05-19
JOHNSON DAVID S
Director
$342,038
@ $342.04 · 2025-05-16
CARY RICHARD C
Officer
$4.07M
@ $339.51 · 2025-05-07
HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
$2.51M
@ $333.59 · 2025-03-21
GALLAGHER PATRICK MURPHY
Chief Operating Officer
$868,870
@ $332.52 · 2025-02-27
ZIEBELL WILLIAM F
Officer
$2.29M
@ $324.41 · 2025-02-18
BAY WALTER D
General Counsel
$3.27M
@ $326.62 · 2025-02-13
JOHNSON DAVID S
Director
$104,670
@ $322.06 · 2025-02-12
CARY RICHARD C
Officer
$3.23M
@ $322.99 · 2025-02-10
BARRAT SHERRY S
Director
$760,831
@ $304.33 · 2025-02-03
MEAD CHRISTOPHER E.
Officer
$877,569
@ $302.61 · 2025-02-03
HUDSON SCOTT R
Officer
$7.06M
@ $306.59 · 2025-02-03
BARRAT SHERRY S
Director
$258,698
@ $294.64 · 2024-11-08
MEAD CHRISTOPHER E.
Officer
$803,600
@ $287.00 · 2024-10-28
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$1.99M
@ $284.70 · 2024-10-28
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$1.99M
@ $284.68 · 2024-09-19
PESCH MICHAEL ROBERT
President
$2.10M
@ $296.20 · 2024-09-13
GALLAGHER THOMAS JOSEPH
President
$4.24M
@ $282.96 · 2024-08-08
HOWELL DOUGLAS K
Chief Financial Officer
$2.48M
@ $285.07 · 2024-08-01
BAY WALTER D
General Counsel
$1.80M
@ $284.06 · 2024-07-30
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
AXP
7
Sells (3M)
20
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $152.65M
LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA
Officer
$909,661
@ $300.02 · 2026-03-06
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4.77M
@ $340.67 · 2026-02-19
GROSFIELD HOWARD M
Officer
$2.82M
@ $346.73 · 2026-02-12
RADHAKRISHNAN RAVIKUMAR S
Chief Technology Officer
$5.35M
@ $356.58 · 2026-02-09
SEEGER LAUREEN E
Officer
$4.60M
@ $360.99 · 2026-02-09
MARRS ANNA
Officer
$9.60M
@ $350.01 · 2026-02-05
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$8.35M
@ $356.91 · 2026-02-05
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$538,902
@ $384.93 · 2025-12-12
RUTLEDGE ELIZABETH
Officer
$18.01M
@ $360.21 · 2025-10-31
TABISH DOUGLAS J
Officer
$894,359
@ $355.61 · 2025-10-23
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$1.75M
@ $350.73 · 2025-10-22
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$37.03M
@ $329.86 · 2025-09-04
HERENA MONIQUE
Officer
$2.83M
@ $325.88 · 2025-09-03
BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E
Officer
$7.67M
@ $326.37 · 2025-09-02
SEEGER LAUREEN E
Officer
$23.37M
@ $296.90 · 2025-08-06
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$15.47M
@ $309.50 · 2025-07-29
MARRS ANNA
Officer
$1.71M
@ $310.77 · 2025-07-29
MARQUEZ RAFAEL
Officer
$3.56M
@ $296.93 · 2025-05-20
GROSFIELD HOWARD M
Officer
$2.60M
@ $275.50 · 2025-05-06
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$799,009
@ $264.66 · 2025-04-29
MARRS ANNA
President
$6.32M
@ $287.88 · 2025-03-04
LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA
Officer
$897,590
@ $296.43 · 2025-02-26
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$2.29M
@ $309.96 · 2025-02-11
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$16.24M
@ $319.45 · 2025-02-06
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$3.53M
@ $317.01 · 2025-02-05
RADHAKRISHNAN RAVIKUMAR S
Chief Technology Officer
$3.03M
@ $319.17 · 2025-02-05
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$7.25M
@ $318.69 · 2025-02-05
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4.77M
@ $313.94 · 2025-01-28
LE CAILLEC CHRISTOPHE
Chief Financial Officer
$1.82M
@ $303.48 · 2024-11-27
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$48.90M
@ $286.57 · 2024-11-07
HERENA MONIQUE
Officer
$374,010
@ $287.70 · 2024-11-07
BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E
Officer
$3.55M
@ $270.98 · 2024-10-29
WILLIAMS ANRE D.
Officer
$21.05M
@ $270.26 · 2024-10-22
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$666,213
@ $240.68 · 2024-05-22
SKYLER JENNIFER
Officer
$3.58M
@ $241.73 · 2024-05-10
LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA
Officer
$729,770
@ $232.41 · 2024-05-06
MARRS ANNA
Officer
$829,501
@ $230.93 · 2024-05-03
BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E
Officer
$27.27M
@ $232.44 · 2024-05-02
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$9.28M
@ $238.63 · 2024-04-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →AJG
😨Fear(30/100)
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
AXP
😐Neutral(42/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →AJG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (30)
AXP
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (42)