Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) vs Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, AJG is overvalued at $276, with a DCF intrinsic value of $231 and a margin of safety of -20%. AMZN is overvalued at $240, with an intrinsic value of $95 and a margin of safety of -152%. Of the two, AJG has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 13.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $4.62 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.99 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $5.34 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Trailing P/E of 19.4x is 52% below the historical average of 40.6x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
- ★Altman Z-Score of 5.30 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
Risks
- ⚠Share count has increased by 21% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.31 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $7.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
- ⚠9 insider sales totaling $18.3M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: AJG vs AMZN
Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or Amazon.com, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, AJG trades at a -19.6% margin of safety (intrinsic value $231 vs. price $276), compared to AMZN's -152.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $95 vs. $240).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or Amazon.com, Inc.?▼
AJG scores 62/100 (Narrow moat), while AMZN scores 51/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. in financial distress?▼
AJG's Altman Z-Score of 1.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. AMZN scores 5.3 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or Amazon.com, Inc.?▼
AMZN earns 9.9% ROIC versus AJG's 6.8%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.