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American International Group, Inc. (AIG) vs Morgan Stanley (MS)

AIG
American International Group, Inc.
$73.89
VS
MS
Morgan Stanley
$158.55

Rewards

AIG
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 27% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
  • ★FCF yield of 28.2% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
  • ★Net debt/EBITDA of -0.3x means the company holds more cash than debt — a net cash position.
MS
  • ★Gross margin of 87.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $6.65 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.75 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.

Risks

AIG
  • ⚠American International Group, Inc. scores only 16/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.72 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 7.1% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
MS
  • ⚠High leverage (4.56x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠7 insider sales totaling $25.2M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

Key Valuation Metrics

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AIG
MS
Valuation
$11.26B
Free Cash Flow
N/A
28.24%
FCF Yield
N/A
13.61
Trailing P/E
15.53
8.35
Forward P/E
12.89
Quality & Moat
5.65%
ROIC
3.43%
7.52%
ROE
14.42%
34.11%
Gross Margin
87.06%
N/A
PEG Ratio
0.75
Balance Sheet Safety
0.24
Debt / Equity
4.56
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
-0.29
Net Debt / EBITDA
N/A
2.44%
Dividend Yield
2.52%
AIG: 4Ties: 2MS: 2
AIGMS

Historical Fundamentals

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AIG

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

MS

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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AIG
$-0.17
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$2.31B
Δ Market Cap
$-384.8M
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
MS
$6.65
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$20.84B
Δ Market Cap
+$138.59B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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AIG
55.7% Margin of Safety
Price is 55.7% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $73.89
Fair Value: $166.72
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
MS
45.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 45.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $158.55
Fair Value: $290.92
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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AIG

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $74?

+0.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -18.8%

The market implies +0.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding -18.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

MS

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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AIG
16/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
MS
32/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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AIG
-2.49
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
MS
-2.09
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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AIG
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 99.3%Retail & Other 0.3%
No. of Institutional Holders1,548
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
MS
Insiders 24.0%Institutions 62.7%Retail & Other 13.3%
No. of Institutional Holders3,182
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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AIG
2
Buys (3M)
6
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $106,460
INGLIS JOHN C
Director
$1,200
@ $92.31 · 2025-12-30
WALSH KEITH
Chief Financial Officer
$2,207
@ $81.74 · 2025-12-30
INGLIS JOHN C
Director
$1,193
@ $79.53 · 2025-09-30
INGLIS JOHN C
Director
$50,307
@ $77.04 · 2025-08-08
INGLIS JOHN C
Director
$895.00
@ $89.50 · 2025-06-27
INGLIS JOHN C
Director
$50,658
@ $78.66 · 2025-03-31
RICE JOHN G
Director
$770,000
@ $77.00 · 2025-02-13
INGLIS JOHN C
Director
$787.00
@ $78.70 · 2024-12-30
INGLIS JOHN C
Director
$50,002
@ $75.76 · 2024-11-26
INGLIS JOHN C
Director
$520.00
@ $74.29 · 2024-09-30
INGLIS JOHN C
Director
$518.00
@ $86.33 · 2024-06-28
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
MS
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $5,630
PETERSON DOUGLAS L
Director
$5,630
@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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AIG
0
Sells (3M)
5
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $11.96M
CARBONE KATHLEEN
Officer
$2.53M
@ $84.06 · 2025-05-20
GLAZER ROSE MARIE E
General Counsel
$2.94M
@ $84.02 · 2025-05-16
WADE CLAUDE E.
Officer
$1.88M
@ $83.57 · 2025-05-05
TWININGDAVIS MELISSA
Officer
$776,072
@ $83.26 · 2025-05-05
FLATT CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$3.85M
@ $83.26 · 2025-05-05
ZAFFINO PETER
Chief Executive Officer
$14.90M
@ $74.52 · 2024-06-12
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
MS
7
Sells (3M)
16
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $62.45M
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$6.02M
@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$3.97M
@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.44M
@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20
YESHAYA SHARON
Chief Financial Officer
$2.94M
@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$1.55M
@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$3.69M
@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$5.57M
@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20
PICK EDWARD N.
Chief Executive Officer
$16.43M
@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.69M
@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.09M
@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$2.81M
@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.53M
@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$3.70M
@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$95,459
@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.80M
@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.12M
@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.15M
@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.78M
@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$5.00M
@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21
AKRAM RAJA
Chief Financial Officer
$2.38M
@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.52M
@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.20M
@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$368,375
@ $105.25 · 2024-07-26
AKRAM RAJA
Officer
$797,764
@ $106.37 · 2024-07-18
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.26M
@ $106.54 · 2024-07-17
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$106,621
@ $106.62 · 2024-07-17
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$692,663
@ $99.61 · 2024-05-14
GORMAN JAMES P
Officer and Director
$9.02M
@ $90.21 · 2024-04-18
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$1.01M
@ $90.09 · 2024-04-17
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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AIG
FearGreed
😐Neutral(41/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
MS
FearGreed
😐Neutral(48/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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AIG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (41)
MS
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (48)
View AIG Full AnalysisView MS Full Analysis