The AES Corporation (AES) vs Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, AES is overvalued at $15, with a DCF intrinsic value of $7 and a margin of safety of -115%. TXN is overvalued at $323, with an intrinsic value of $283 and a margin of safety of -14%. Of the two, TXN has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $11.47 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Trailing P/E of 7.6x is 67% below the historical average of 22.9x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.81 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
- ★Texas Instruments Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Altman Z-Score of 8.73 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
Risks
- ⚠Gross margin of 19.3% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠High leverage (2.46x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 8.0x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 55.3x is 104% above the historical average of 27.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $323?
The market implies +22.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +32.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: AES vs TXN
Is The AES Corporation or Texas Instruments Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, TXN trades at a -13.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $283 vs. price $323), compared to AES's -115.2% margin of safety (intrinsic $7 vs. $15).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, The AES Corporation or Texas Instruments Incorporated?▼
TXN scores 48/100 (Narrow moat), while AES scores 38/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is The AES Corporation in financial distress?▼
AES's Altman Z-Score of 0.5 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. TXN scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, The AES Corporation or Texas Instruments Incorporated?▼
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) generates a 0.9% free cash flow yield, compared to The AES Corporation's -28.4%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, The AES Corporation or Texas Instruments Incorporated?▼
TXN earns 17.9% ROIC versus AES's 4.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, The AES Corporation's or Texas Instruments Incorporated's?▼
AES's dividend earns a safety score of 69/100 (Safe), compared to TXN's 34/100 (Unsafe). AES has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.