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The AES Corporation (AES) vs Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B)

AES
The AES Corporation
$14.15
VS
BRK-B
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
$481.48

Rewards

AES
    BRK-B
    • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $1.66 of market value — management is creating shareholder value.
    • ★Net debt/EBITDA of -2.2x means the company holds more cash than debt — a net cash position.

    Risks

    AES
    • ⚠Gross margin of 18.4% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠High leverage (2.59x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
    • ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 8.5x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
    BRK-B
    • ⚠Berkshire Hathaway Inc. scores only 16/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
    • ⚠Trailing P/E of 15.5x is 75% above the historical average of 8.9x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    AES
    BRK-B
    Valuation
    $-3.09B
    Free Cash Flow
    $36.80B
    -30.61%
    FCF Yield
    3.54%
    10.80
    Trailing P/E
    15.50
    5.93
    Forward P/E
    22.11
    Quality & Moat
    3.74%
    ROIC
    11.31%
    7.63%
    ROE
    9.30%
    18.40%
    Gross Margin
    26.15%
    N/A
    PEG Ratio
    N/A
    Balance Sheet Safety
    2.59
    Debt / Equity
    0.19
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    8.46
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    -2.15
    4.97%
    Dividend Yield
    N/A
    AES: 2Ties: 1BRK-B: 7
    AESBRK-B

    Historical Fundamentals

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    AES

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    BRK-B

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    AES
    $-6.40
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $1.41B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-9.02B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    BRK-B
    $1.66
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $252.19B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$417.98B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    AES
    Insufficient Data
    Enter initial FCF to calculate intrinsic value
    Current Price: $14.15
    Fair Value: $0.00
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    BRK-B
    31.1% Margin of Safety
    Price is 31.1% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $481.48
    Fair Value: $699.14
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    AES

    Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

    BRK-B

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $481?

    +0.7%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +8.8%

    The market implies +0.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    Economic Moat Score

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    AES
    38/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
    BRK-B
    16/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    AES
    -2.73
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    BRK-B
    -2.41
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    AES
    Insiders 0.5%Institutions 88.1%Retail & Other 11.4%
    No. of Institutional Holders984
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    BRK-B
    Insiders 0.3%Institutions 66.2%Retail & Other 33.5%
    No. of Institutional Holders5,852
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    AES
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    BRK-B
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    AES
    0
    Sells (3M)
    0
    Sells (12M)
    KOHAN SHERRY
    Officer
    $305,250
    @ $20.35 · 2024-06-06
    MENDOZA TISH
    Officer
    $1.41M
    @ $21.21 · 2024-05-20
    DA SANTOS BERNERD R
    Officer
    $1.40M
    @ $21.15 · 2024-05-20
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    BRK-B
    0
    Sells (3M)
    0
    Sells (12M)
    No open market insider sales found.
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    AES
    FearGreed
    😨Fear(40/100)

    "Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    BRK-B
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(48/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    AES
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (40)
    BRK-B
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (48)
    View AES Full AnalysisView BRK-B Full Analysis
    The AES Corporation (AES) vs Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B) Stock Comparison | SafetyMargin.io