Compare Stocks › ADP vs AXP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) vs American Express Company (AXP)
ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
$210.66
VS
AXP
American Express Company
$294.93
Rewards
ADP
- ★Automatic Data Processing, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Automatic Data Processing, Inc. scores 93/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 19.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
AXP
- ★Gross margin of 63.5% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $6.18 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
ADP
- ⚠8 insider sales totaling $1.3M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
AXP
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.93 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠7 insider sales totaling $36.4M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 5.9% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →ADP
AXP
Valuation
$3.46B
Free Cash Flow
N/A
4.06%
FCF Yield
N/A
20.24
Trailing P/E
19.19
17.61
Forward P/E
14.64
Quality & Moat
40.52%
ROIC
9.49%
63.82%
ROE
31.97%
48.35%
Gross Margin
63.47%
1.76
PEG Ratio
1.16
Balance Sheet Safety
0.70
Debt / Equity
1.91
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.33
Net Debt / EBITDA
N/A
3.23%
Dividend Yield
1.29%
ADP: 4Ties: 1AXP: 4
ADPAXP
Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →ADP
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
AXP
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →ADP
$1.02
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Creator
Σ Retained
$4.76B
Δ Market Cap
+$4.87B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
AXP
$6.18
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$23.29B
Δ Market Cap
+$144.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →ADP
8.1% Margin of Safety
Price is 8.1% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $210.66
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $229.28
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
AXP
38.6% Margin of Safety
Price is 38.6% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $294.93
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $480.21
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →ADP
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $211?
+8.6%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +10.9%
The market implies +8.6% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +10.9%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
AXP
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →ADP
93/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
AXP
40/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →ADP
-3.03
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
AXP
-2.51
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →ADP
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 86.5%Retail & Other 13.3%
No. of Institutional Holders3,068
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
AXP
Insiders 22.2%Institutions 64.8%Retail & Other 12.9%
No. of Institutional Holders3,749
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →ADP
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
AXP
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4,054
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4,054
@ $176.26 · 2025-04-09
ANGELAKIS MICHAEL J
Director
$998,593
@ $269.89 · 2025-03-07
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →ADP
8
Sells (3M)
26
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $46.14M
D'AMBROSIO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$113,188
@ $208.45 · 2026-03-16
D'AMBROSIO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$115,349
@ $212.43 · 2026-02-17
MICHAUD BRIAN L.
Officer
$234,180
@ $234.18 · 2026-02-06
FOSKETT DAVID
Officer
$63,042
@ $237.00 · 2026-02-05
D'AMBROSIO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$142,423
@ $262.29 · 2026-01-13
KWON DAVID
Officer
$213,429
@ $264.80 · 2026-01-12
KWON DAVID
Officer
$234,000
@ $260.00 · 2026-01-06
BLACK MARIA
Chief Executive Officer
$183,880
@ $257.17 · 2026-01-05
RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Director
$1.21M
@ $295.26 · 2025-09-12
D'AMBROSIO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$177,249
@ $296.90 · 2025-09-10
RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Director
$12.95M
@ $295.05 · 2025-09-10
BONARTI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.60M
@ $298.43 · 2025-09-09
RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Director
$3.58M
@ $297.12 · 2025-09-05
RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Director
$7.00M
@ $299.31 · 2025-09-04
MCGUIRE DONALD
Officer
$4.03M
@ $296.57 · 2025-09-03
DESILVA JOSEPH
Officer
$1.37M
@ $296.57 · 2025-09-03
FOSKETT DAVID
Officer
$407,191
@ $296.57 · 2025-09-03
BLACK MARIA
Chief Executive Officer
$7.04M
@ $298.32 · 2025-09-03
DESILVA JOSEPH
Officer
$599,359
@ $301.64 · 2025-09-02
FOSKETT DAVID
Officer
$314,079
@ $301.13 · 2025-09-02
BLACK MARIA
Chief Executive Officer
$2.32M
@ $299.93 · 2025-09-02
MICHAUD BRIAN L.
Officer
$63,485
@ $308.18 · 2025-07-01
DESILVA JOSEPH
Officer
$424,064
@ $307.07 · 2025-06-13
D'AMBROSIO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$147,179
@ $311.82 · 2025-05-12
D'AMBROSIO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$140,121
@ $293.14 · 2025-04-10
MICHAUD BRIAN L.
Officer
$458,070
@ $305.38 · 2025-04-01
D'AMBROSIO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$144,833
@ $306.20 · 2025-03-10
D'AMBROSIO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$145,181
@ $308.24 · 2025-02-10
LEHBERGER JONATHAN S
Officer
$704,869
@ $303.30 · 2025-02-03
BONARTI MICHAEL A
Officer
$9.14M
@ $303.30 · 2025-02-03
MAGLIULO VIRGINIA
Officer
$1.02M
@ $285.50 · 2025-01-13
FOSKETT DAVID
Officer
$305,322
@ $286.15 · 2025-01-13
KWON DAVID
Officer
$382,127
@ $290.37 · 2025-01-06
MAGLIULO VIRGINIA
Officer
$597,095
@ $289.15 · 2025-01-06
FOSKETT DAVID
Officer
$290,443
@ $289.29 · 2025-01-06
BLACK MARIA
Chief Executive Officer
$210,233
@ $291.59 · 2025-01-03
AYALA JOHN C.
Officer
$3.12M
@ $290.73 · 2025-01-03
MCGUIRE DONALD
Officer
$2.55M
@ $293.83 · 2025-01-02
MICHAUD BRIAN L.
Officer
$106,366
@ $293.83 · 2025-01-02
DESILVA JOSEPH
Officer
$1.91M
@ $293.83 · 2025-01-02
KWON DAVID
Officer
$571,793
@ $293.83 · 2025-01-02
LEHBERGER JONATHAN S
Officer
$728,405
@ $293.83 · 2025-01-02
KUTAM SREENIVASA
Officer
$11.69M
@ $300.00 · 2024-11-06
DESILVA JOSEPH
Officer
$387,240
@ $280.00 · 2024-09-17
KWON DAVID
Officer
$28,000
@ $280.00 · 2024-09-17
RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Director
$12.17M
@ $277.27 · 2024-09-13
RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Director
$16.27M
@ $276.33 · 2024-09-11
AYALA JOHN C.
Officer
$7.96M
@ $269.70 · 2024-09-09
BONARTI MICHAEL A
Officer
$1.04M
@ $269.70 · 2024-09-09
RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Director
$2.48M
@ $269.45 · 2024-09-06
RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO
Director
$4.87M
@ $272.82 · 2024-09-05
MCGUIRE DONALD
Officer
$768,660
@ $276.00 · 2024-09-04
DESILVA JOSEPH
Officer
$1.16M
@ $276.00 · 2024-09-04
D'AMBROSIO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$132,204
@ $276.00 · 2024-09-04
BLACK MARIA
Chief Executive Officer
$2.04M
@ $276.00 · 2024-09-04
MCGUIRE DONALD
Officer
$872,254
@ $274.38 · 2024-09-03
DESILVA JOSEPH
Officer
$522,694
@ $274.38 · 2024-09-03
BLACK MARIA
Chief Executive Officer
$5.25M
@ $274.38 · 2024-09-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
AXP
7
Sells (3M)
20
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $152.65M
LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA
Officer
$909,661
@ $300.02 · 2026-03-06
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4.77M
@ $340.67 · 2026-02-19
GROSFIELD HOWARD M
Officer
$2.82M
@ $346.73 · 2026-02-12
RADHAKRISHNAN RAVIKUMAR S
Chief Technology Officer
$5.35M
@ $356.58 · 2026-02-09
SEEGER LAUREEN E
Officer
$4.60M
@ $360.99 · 2026-02-09
MARRS ANNA
Officer
$9.60M
@ $350.01 · 2026-02-05
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$8.35M
@ $356.91 · 2026-02-05
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$538,902
@ $384.93 · 2025-12-12
RUTLEDGE ELIZABETH
Officer
$18.01M
@ $360.21 · 2025-10-31
TABISH DOUGLAS J
Officer
$894,359
@ $355.61 · 2025-10-23
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$1.75M
@ $350.73 · 2025-10-22
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$37.03M
@ $329.86 · 2025-09-04
HERENA MONIQUE
Officer
$2.83M
@ $325.88 · 2025-09-03
BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E
Officer
$7.67M
@ $326.37 · 2025-09-02
SEEGER LAUREEN E
Officer
$23.37M
@ $296.90 · 2025-08-06
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$15.47M
@ $309.50 · 2025-07-29
MARRS ANNA
Officer
$1.71M
@ $310.77 · 2025-07-29
MARQUEZ RAFAEL
Officer
$3.56M
@ $296.93 · 2025-05-20
GROSFIELD HOWARD M
Officer
$2.60M
@ $275.50 · 2025-05-06
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$799,009
@ $264.66 · 2025-04-29
MARRS ANNA
President
$6.32M
@ $287.88 · 2025-03-04
LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA
Officer
$897,590
@ $296.43 · 2025-02-26
MCNEAL GLENDA G
Officer
$2.29M
@ $309.96 · 2025-02-11
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$16.24M
@ $319.45 · 2025-02-06
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$3.53M
@ $317.01 · 2025-02-05
RADHAKRISHNAN RAVIKUMAR S
Chief Technology Officer
$3.03M
@ $319.17 · 2025-02-05
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$7.25M
@ $318.69 · 2025-02-05
JOABAR RAYMOND D
Officer
$4.77M
@ $313.94 · 2025-01-28
LE CAILLEC CHRISTOPHE
Chief Financial Officer
$1.82M
@ $303.48 · 2024-11-27
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$48.90M
@ $286.57 · 2024-11-07
HERENA MONIQUE
Officer
$374,010
@ $287.70 · 2024-11-07
BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E
Officer
$3.55M
@ $270.98 · 2024-10-29
WILLIAMS ANRE D.
Officer
$21.05M
@ $270.26 · 2024-10-22
PICKETT DENISE
Officer
$666,213
@ $240.68 · 2024-05-22
SKYLER JENNIFER
Officer
$3.58M
@ $241.73 · 2024-05-10
LIEBERMAN QUINN JESSICA
Officer
$729,770
@ $232.41 · 2024-05-06
MARRS ANNA
Officer
$829,501
@ $230.93 · 2024-05-03
BUCKMINSTER DOUGLAS E
Officer
$27.27M
@ $232.44 · 2024-05-02
SQUERI STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$9.28M
@ $238.63 · 2024-04-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →ADP
😨Fear(35/100)
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
AXP
😐Neutral(42/100)
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →ADP
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (35)
AXP
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (42)