Adobe Inc. (ADBE) vs Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, ADBE is undervalued at $250, with a DCF intrinsic value of $560 and a margin of safety of 55%. SPG is fairly valued at $218, with an intrinsic value of $238 and a margin of safety of 9%. Of the two, ADBE has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Adobe Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 89.3% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Adobe Inc. scores 100/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Gross margin of 81.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Simon Property Group, Inc. scores 74/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
Risks
- ⚠PEG ratio of 4.58 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠High leverage (4.86x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 5.5x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $250?
The market implies +1.5% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding -1.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $218?
The market implies +8.5% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +18.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: ADBE vs SPG
Is Adobe Inc. or Simon Property Group, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, ADBE trades at a 55.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $560 vs. price $250), compared to SPG's 8.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $238 vs. $218).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Adobe Inc. or Simon Property Group, Inc.?▼
ADBE scores 100/100 (Wide moat), while SPG scores 74/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Simon Property Group, Inc. in financial distress?▼
SPG's Altman Z-Score of 1.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. ADBE scores 8.8 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Adobe Inc. or Simon Property Group, Inc.?▼
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) generates a 9.6% free cash flow yield, compared to Simon Property Group, Inc.'s 3.1%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Adobe Inc. or Simon Property Group, Inc.?▼
ADBE earns 38.5% ROIC versus SPG's 7.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.