Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) vs ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, ACGL is undervalued at $91, with a DCF intrinsic value of $265 and a margin of safety of 66%. NOW is overvalued at $95, with an intrinsic value of $85 and a margin of safety of -12%. Of the two, ACGL has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Arch Capital Group Ltd. scores 78/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 17.6% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.00 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Gross margin of 76.6% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 27.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.22 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
Risks
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.10 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 3 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
- ⚠FCF yield of 5.2% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠6 insider sales totaling $2.7M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $91?
The market implies -7.4% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding -9.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $95?
The market implies +21.4% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +6.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: ACGL vs NOW
Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. or ServiceNow, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, ACGL trades at a 65.5% margin of safety (intrinsic value $265 vs. price $91), compared to NOW's -11.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $85 vs. $95).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Arch Capital Group Ltd. or ServiceNow, Inc.?▼
ACGL scores 78/100 (Wide moat), while NOW scores 61/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. in financial distress?▼
ACGL's Altman Z-Score of 1.1 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. NOW scores 8.4 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Arch Capital Group Ltd. or ServiceNow, Inc.?▼
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) generates a 16.6% free cash flow yield, compared to ServiceNow, Inc.'s 5.2%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Arch Capital Group Ltd. or ServiceNow, Inc.?▼
ACGL earns 14.7% ROIC versus NOW's 10.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.