Compare Stocks › ABNB vs LLY

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) vs Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-09-17, ABNB is undervalued at $168, with a DCF intrinsic value of $297 and a margin of safety of 44%. LLY is undervalued at $1138, with an intrinsic value of $1598 and a margin of safety of 29%. Of the two, ABNB has the wider margin of safety.

ABNB

Airbnb, Inc.

$167.51

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

$1137.82

Rewards

ABNB

★Airbnb, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
★Gross margin of 82.9% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Airbnb, Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

LLY

★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 83.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

ABNB

⚠Trailing P/E of 38.3x is 38% above the historical average of 27.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
⚠7 insider sales totaling $40.2M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

LLY

⚠FCF yield of 1.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠Insiders have sold $10.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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ABNB

LLY

Valuation

$4.65B

Free Cash Flow

$11.07B

4.63%

FCF Yield

1.09%

38.33

Trailing P/E

38.17

27.08

Forward P/E

24.05

Quality & Moat

21.21%

ROIC

38.43%

34.54%

ROE

102.29%

82.90%

Gross Margin

83.40%

1.62

PEG Ratio

1.12

Balance Sheet Safety

Net cash

Net Debt / Equity

1.36

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

-3.47

Net Debt / EBITDA

1.10

0.00%

Dividend Yield

0.61%

ABNB: 3Ties: 3LLY: 6

ABNBLLY

Historical Fundamentals

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ABNB

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

LLY

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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ABNB

$2.79

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$9.95B

Δ Market Cap

+$27.75B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

LLY

$27.49

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$22.34B

Δ Market Cap

+$614.01B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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ABNB

43.6% Margin of Safety

Price is 43.6% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $167.51

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $296.86

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

LLY

28.8% Margin of Safety

Price is 28.8% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $1137.82

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $1597.97

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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ABNB

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $168?

+7.4%

Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market below historical growth — potential opportunity.

LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1138?

+20.6%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +29.3%

The market implies +20.6% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +29.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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ABNB

89/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

LLY

73/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

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ABNB

-2.76

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

LLY

-1.83

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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ABNB

Insiders 1.9%Institutions 89.4%Retail & Other 8.7%

No. of Institutional Holders1,864

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

LLY

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%

No. of Institutional Holders5,890

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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ABNB

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

LLY

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

MONTARCE LUCAS E

Chief Financial Officer

$494,627

@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15

ALVAREZ RALPH

Director

$500,473

@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13

VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.

Officer

$647,360

@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13

FYRWALD J. ERIK

Director

$1.01M

@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12

RICKS DAVID A

Chief Executive Officer

$1.05M

@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12

SKOVRONSKY DANIEL

Officer

$634,405

@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12

SULZBERGER GABRIELLE

Director

$75,018

@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12

JACKSON JAMERE

Director

$127,913

@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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ABNB

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $99.32M

BERNSTEIN DAVID CHARLES

Officer

$953,328

@ $182.49 · 2026-09-01

BLECHARCZYK NATHAN

Officer, Director and Beneficial Owner

$504,942

@ $184.42 · 2026-08-20

CHENAULT KENNETH I

Director

$1.42M

@ $170.00 · 2026-08-07

CHESKY BRIAN

Chief Executive Officer

$34.96M

@ $174.79 · 2026-08-07

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$574,718

@ $153.34 · 2026-08-03

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$555,038

@ $148.01 · 2026-07-02

CHENAULT KENNETH I

Director

$1.25M

@ $150.00 · 2026-06-29

CHESKY BRIAN

Chief Executive Officer

$4.25M

@ $138.40 · 2026-06-15

CHESKY BRIAN

Chief Executive Officer

$5.67M

@ $135.38 · 2026-06-09

CHESKY BRIAN

Chief Executive Officer

$10.99M

@ $135.94 · 2026-06-05

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$1.01M

@ $136.24 · 2026-06-02

CHESKY BRIAN

Chief Executive Officer

$8.41M

@ $134.00 · 2026-06-02

BLECHARCZYK NATHAN

Officer, Director and Beneficial Owner

$359,905

@ $131.40 · 2026-05-20

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$536,250

@ $143.00 · 2026-05-04

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$491,212

@ $130.99 · 2026-04-08

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$584,725

@ $135.73 · 2026-03-05

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$487,500

@ $130.00 · 2026-03-02

BLECHARCZYK NATHAN

Officer, Director and Beneficial Owner

$533,735

@ $125.29 · 2026-02-20

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$487,500

@ $130.00 · 2026-02-02

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$509,775

@ $135.94 · 2026-01-02

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$345,745

@ $134.79 · 2025-12-19

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$2.06M

@ $135.00 · 2025-12-17

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$975,000

@ $130.00 · 2025-12-12

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$83,804

@ $128.93 · 2025-12-12

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$578,750

@ $125.00 · 2025-12-09

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$2.11M

@ $125.19 · 2025-12-09

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$78,598

@ $120.92 · 2025-12-05

BLECHARCZYK NATHAN

Officer, Director and Beneficial Owner

$14.13M

@ $120.41 · 2025-12-04

BLECHARCZYK NATHAN

Officer, Director and Beneficial Owner

$619,572

@ $120.03 · 2025-12-02

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$133,732

@ $116.39 · 2025-12-01

BLECHARCZYK NATHAN

Officer, Director and Beneficial Owner

$385,960

@ $116.71 · 2025-11-28

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$68,706

@ $114.51 · 2025-11-20

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$72,828

@ $121.38 · 2025-11-13

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$73,428

@ $122.38 · 2025-11-06

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$75,282

@ $125.47 · 2025-10-30

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$975,000

@ $130.00 · 2025-10-28

MERTZ ELINOR

Chief Financial Officer

$1.56M

@ $127.65 · 2025-10-24

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$76,518

@ $127.53 · 2025-10-23

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$74,556

@ $124.26 · 2025-10-16

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$72,276

@ $120.46 · 2025-10-09

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$73,482

@ $122.47 · 2025-10-02

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$73,746

@ $122.91 · 2025-09-25

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$74,244

@ $123.74 · 2025-09-18

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$74,208

@ $123.68 · 2025-09-11

BALOGH ARISTOTLE N

Chief Technology Officer

$74,790

@ $124.65 · 2025-09-04

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

LLY

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $3.64B

JONSSON PATRIK

Officer

$7.64M

@ $1175.10 · 2026-08-17

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$2.37M

@ $1185.01 · 2026-08-10

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$2.88M

@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$15.75M

@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$322.38M

@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$1.51M

@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.90M

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$2.85M

@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260,409

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$17.34M

@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.08M

@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$152.06M

@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$111.50M

@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$39.07M

@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$176.10M

@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$62.31M

@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$10.19M

@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$183.80M

@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$48.02M

@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$1.01M

@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$308.41M

@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$279.35M

@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$16.41M

@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$167.09M

@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$38.47M

@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$479,038

@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$266.65M

@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260.17M

@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.16M

@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$9.04M

@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.23M

@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$22.72M

@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$137.04M

@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.22M

@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$92.50M

@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$107.36M

@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$177.29M

@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.79M

@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$18.06M

@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$81.53M

@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$734,930

@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$783,762

@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$225.42M

@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →

ABNB

😐Neutral(46/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

LLY

😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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ABNB

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (46)

LLY

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)

View ABNB Full Analysis View LLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: ABNB vs LLY

Is Airbnb, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, ABNB trades at a 43.6% margin of safety (intrinsic value $297 vs. price $168), compared to LLY's 28.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $1598 vs. $1138).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Airbnb, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

ABNB scores 89/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Airbnb, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) generates a 4.6% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 1.1%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Airbnb, Inc. or Eli Lilly and Company?▼

LLY earns 38.4% ROIC versus ABNB's 21.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.