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AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) vs Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, ABBV is overvalued at $295, with a DCF intrinsic value of $172 and a margin of safety of -71%. HWM is overvalued at $199, with an intrinsic value of $164 and a margin of safety of -22%. Of the two, HWM has the wider margin of safety.

ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
$294.89
VS
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
$199.22

Rewards

ABBV
  • ★AbbVie Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Gross margin of 73.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★AbbVie Inc. scores 82/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
HWM
  • ★Howmet Aerospace Inc. scores 83/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 38.4% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.51 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

ABBV
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $8.2M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 9.8% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
HWM
  • ⚠FCF yield of 1.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.

Key Valuation Metrics

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ABBV
HWM
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$1.29B
N/A
FCF Yield
1.63%
50.67
Trailing P/E
39.06
18.24
Forward P/E
30.11
Quality & Moat
29.08%
ROIC
21.31%
N/A
ROE
37.65%
73.72%
Gross Margin
36.63%
0.60
PEG Ratio
0.80
Balance Sheet Safety
N/A
Net Debt / Equity
0.71
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
2.03
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.35
2.35%
Dividend Yield
0.28%
ABBV: 5Ties: 1HWM: 2
ABBVHWM

Historical Fundamentals

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ABBV

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

HWM

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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ABBV
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-19.85B
Δ Market Cap
+$118.02B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
HWM
$21.57
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$3.06B
Δ Market Cap
+$66.10B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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ABBV
71.5% Overvalued
Price is 71.5% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $294.89
Fair Value: $172.00
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
HWM
21.6% Overvalued
Price is 21.6% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $199.22
Fair Value: $163.87
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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ABBV

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

HWM

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $199?

+21.6%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +23.8%

The market implies +21.6% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +23.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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ABBV
82/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Reinvestment Efficiency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
HWM
83/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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ABBV
-2.86
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
HWM
-2.54
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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ABBV
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 77.4%Retail & Other 22.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,303
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
HWM
Insiders 0.9%Institutions 93.8%Retail & Other 5.3%
No. of Institutional Holders2,140
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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ABBV
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
HWM
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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ABBV
1
Sells (3M)
4
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $18.92M
DONOGHOE NICHOLAS
Officer
$8.18M
@ $250.00 · 2026-08-14
PURDUE DAVID RYAN
Officer
$1.22M
@ $233.56 · 2026-03-04
SIATIS PERRY C.
General Counsel
$4.38M
@ $234.39 · 2026-03-02
SIATIS PERRY C.
General Counsel
$5.15M
@ $230.00 · 2026-02-25
SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITA
Chief Operating Officer
$8.41M
@ $198.42 · 2025-08-12
DONOGHOE NICHOLAS
Officer
$2.64M
@ $198.51 · 2025-08-05
STEWART JEFFREY RYAN
Officer
$12.36M
@ $210.08 · 2025-03-31
REENTS SCOTT T.
Chief Financial Officer
$3.75M
@ $212.34 · 2025-03-14
GONZALEZ RICHARD A
Director
$20.26M
@ $205.45 · 2025-03-03
RICHMOND TIMOTHY J
Officer
$4.47M
@ $210.45 · 2025-03-03
SIATIS PERRY C.
General Counsel
$5.82M
@ $208.69 · 2025-03-03
RICHMOND TIMOTHY J
Officer
$6.07M
@ $202.90 · 2025-02-26
BUCKBEE KEVIN K
Officer
$3.85M
@ $203.41 · 2025-02-26
SIATIS PERRY C.
General Counsel
$1.14M
@ $197.90 · 2025-02-20
BUCKBEE KEVIN K
Officer
$310,032
@ $172.24 · 2024-12-16
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
HWM
0
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $22.92M
MARCHUK NEIL EDWARD
Officer
$11.30M
@ $269.50 · 2026-05-11
SHULTZ BARBARA LOU
Officer
$260,005
@ $260.00 · 2026-02-26
MARCHUK NEIL EDWARD
Officer
$11.36M
@ $251.70 · 2026-02-18
LIN LOLA FELICE
Officer
$2.37M
@ $180.51 · 2025-08-05
MARCHUK NEIL EDWARD
Officer
$4.76M
@ $158.53 · 2025-05-12
SHULTZ BARBARA LOU
Officer
$193,962
@ $155.17 · 2025-05-05
LIN LOLA FELICE
Officer
$902,886
@ $136.39 · 2025-02-18
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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ABBV
FearGreed
😏Greed(72/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
HWM
FearGreed
😨Fear(32/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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ABBV
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (72)
HWM
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (32)
View ABBV Full AnalysisView HWM Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: ABBV vs HWM

Is AbbVie Inc. or Howmet Aerospace Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, HWM trades at a -21.6% margin of safety (intrinsic value $164 vs. price $199), compared to ABBV's -71.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $172 vs. $295).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, AbbVie Inc. or Howmet Aerospace Inc.?▼

HWM scores 83/100 (Wide moat), while ABBV scores 82/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is AbbVie Inc. in financial distress?▼

ABBV's Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. HWM scores 10.6 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, AbbVie Inc. or Howmet Aerospace Inc.?▼

ABBV earns 29.1% ROIC versus HWM's 21.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, AbbVie Inc.'s or Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s?▼

HWM's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to ABBV's 39/100 (Unsafe). HWM has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.