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AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) vs The Cigna Group (CI): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, ABBV is overvalued at $295, with a DCF intrinsic value of $172 and a margin of safety of -71%. CI is undervalued at $298, with an intrinsic value of $595 and a margin of safety of 50%. Of the two, CI has the wider margin of safety.

ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
$294.89
VS
CI
The Cigna Group
$298.23

Rewards

ABBV
  • ★AbbVie Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Gross margin of 73.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★AbbVie Inc. scores 82/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
CI
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 12% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
  • ★FCF yield of 10.1% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
  • ★Trailing P/E of 12.3x is 25% below the historical average of 16.5x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.

Risks

ABBV
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $8.2M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
  • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 9.8% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
CI
  • ⚠Gross margin of 9.1% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $6.3M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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ABBV
CI
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$7.98B
N/A
FCF Yield
10.13%
50.67
Trailing P/E
12.33
18.24
Forward P/E
8.91
Quality & Moat
29.08%
ROIC
11.89%
N/A
ROE
16.76%
73.72%
Gross Margin
9.14%
0.60
PEG Ratio
0.82
Balance Sheet Safety
N/A
Net Debt / Equity
0.57
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
2.03
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.93
2.35%
Dividend Yield
2.09%
ABBV: 4Ties: 2CI: 2
ABBVCI

Historical Fundamentals

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ABBV

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

CI

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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ABBV
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-19.85B
Δ Market Cap
+$118.02B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
CI
$-2.66
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$9.93B
Δ Market Cap
$-26.45B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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ABBV
71.5% Overvalued
Price is 71.5% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $294.89
Fair Value: $172.00
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
CI
49.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 49.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $298.23
Fair Value: $594.82
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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ABBV

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

CI

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $298?

+2.6%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +1.8%

The market implies +2.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +1.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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ABBV
82/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Reinvestment Efficiency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
CI
54/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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ABBV
-2.86
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
CI
-2.32
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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ABBV
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 77.4%Retail & Other 22.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,303
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
CI
Insiders 1.4%Institutions 92.3%Retail & Other 6.2%
No. of Institutional Holders2,212
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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ABBV
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
CI
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $999,916
CORDANI DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
$999,916
@ $241.88 · 2025-11-03
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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ABBV
1
Sells (3M)
4
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $18.92M
DONOGHOE NICHOLAS
Officer
$8.18M
@ $250.00 · 2026-08-14
PURDUE DAVID RYAN
Officer
$1.22M
@ $233.56 · 2026-03-04
SIATIS PERRY C.
General Counsel
$4.38M
@ $234.39 · 2026-03-02
SIATIS PERRY C.
General Counsel
$5.15M
@ $230.00 · 2026-02-25
SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITA
Chief Operating Officer
$8.41M
@ $198.42 · 2025-08-12
DONOGHOE NICHOLAS
Officer
$2.64M
@ $198.51 · 2025-08-05
STEWART JEFFREY RYAN
Officer
$12.36M
@ $210.08 · 2025-03-31
REENTS SCOTT T.
Chief Financial Officer
$3.75M
@ $212.34 · 2025-03-14
GONZALEZ RICHARD A
Director
$20.26M
@ $205.45 · 2025-03-03
RICHMOND TIMOTHY J
Officer
$4.47M
@ $210.45 · 2025-03-03
SIATIS PERRY C.
General Counsel
$5.82M
@ $208.69 · 2025-03-03
RICHMOND TIMOTHY J
Officer
$6.07M
@ $202.90 · 2025-02-26
BUCKBEE KEVIN K
Officer
$3.85M
@ $203.41 · 2025-02-26
SIATIS PERRY C.
General Counsel
$1.14M
@ $197.90 · 2025-02-20
BUCKBEE KEVIN K
Officer
$310,032
@ $172.24 · 2024-12-16
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
CI
3
Sells (3M)
7
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $66.84M
NEVILLE EVERETT
Officer
$175,259
@ $284.05 · 2026-09-03
JONES NICOLE S.
Officer
$748,516
@ $279.61 · 2026-08-18
JONES NICOLE S.
Officer
$5.37M
@ $276.27 · 2026-08-04
KATES JAMIE G
Officer
$268,452
@ $298.61 · 2026-06-12
CORDANI DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
$59.11M
@ $292.82 · 2026-05-12
JONES NICOLE S.
Officer
$666,515
@ $288.91 · 2026-03-02
NEVILLE EVERETT
Officer
$496,636
@ $288.91 · 2026-03-02
EVANKO BRIAN C
President
$1.61M
@ $300.00 · 2025-10-03
JONES NICOLE S.
General Counsel
$8.56M
@ $300.00 · 2025-08-15
GRANGER ELDER
Director
$737,392
@ $310.35 · 2025-03-14
EDER NOELLE K
Officer
$3.18M
@ $320.00 · 2025-03-07
JONES NICOLE S.
Officer
$1.51M
@ $308.12 · 2025-03-03
CORDANI DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
$8.17M
@ $308.12 · 2025-03-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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ABBV
FearGreed
😏Greed(72/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
CI
FearGreed
😏Greed(63/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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ABBV
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (72)
CI
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (63)
View ABBV Full AnalysisView CI Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: ABBV vs CI

Is AbbVie Inc. or The Cigna Group more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, CI trades at a 49.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $595 vs. price $298), compared to ABBV's -71.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $172 vs. $295).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, AbbVie Inc. or The Cigna Group?▼

ABBV scores 82/100 (Wide moat), while CI scores 54/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is AbbVie Inc. in financial distress?▼

ABBV's Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. CI scores 2.6 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, AbbVie Inc. or The Cigna Group?▼

ABBV earns 29.1% ROIC versus CI's 11.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, AbbVie Inc.'s or The Cigna Group's?▼

CI's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to ABBV's 39/100 (Unsafe). CI has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

ABBV vs CI: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io