AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) vs Amcor plc (AMCR): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, ABBV is overvalued at $216, with a DCF intrinsic value of $160 and a margin of safety of -35%. AMCR is overvalued at $41, with an intrinsic value of $0 and a margin of safety of -100%. Of the two, ABBV has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★AbbVie Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Gross margin of 72.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★AbbVie Inc. scores 82/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.57 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
Risks
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠FCF yield of 5.4% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 105.6x is 69% above the historical average of 62.3x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 5.8 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 19.1% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Share count has increased by 55% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $216?
The market implies +17.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $41?
The market implies +20.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +17.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Reinvestment Efficiency is the standout factor.
Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: ABBV vs AMCR
Is AbbVie Inc. or Amcor plc more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, ABBV trades at a -35.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $160 vs. price $216), compared to AMCR's -100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $0 vs. $41).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, AbbVie Inc. or Amcor plc?▼
ABBV scores 82/100 (Wide moat), while AMCR scores 66/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Amcor plc in financial distress?▼
AMCR's Altman Z-Score of 1.1 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. ABBV scores 2.4 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, AbbVie Inc. or Amcor plc?▼
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) generates a 5.4% free cash flow yield, compared to Amcor plc's 4.3%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, AbbVie Inc. or Amcor plc?▼
ABBV earns 21.9% ROIC versus AMCR's 5.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, AbbVie Inc.'s or Amcor plc's?▼
ABBV's dividend earns a safety score of 39/100 (Unsafe), compared to AMCR's 15/100 (Unsafe). ABBV has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.
Does Amcor plc have accounting red flags?▼
AMCR's Beneish M-Score of -1.7 flags it as a likely earnings manipulator (above the -1.78 threshold). By contrast, ABBV scores -2.9, within the normal range. The Beneish model detects aggressive accounting through eight financial ratios.