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Compare Stocks › AAPL vs MPC

Apple Inc. (AAPL) vs Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, AAPL is overvalued at $298, with a DCF intrinsic value of $182 and a margin of safety of -64%. MPC is fairly valued at $243, with an intrinsic value of $292 and a margin of safety of 17%. Of the two, MPC has the wider margin of safety.

AAPL
Apple Inc.
$298.01
VS
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
$242.91

Rewards

AAPL
  • ★Apple Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Apple Inc. scores 96/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
MPC
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 35% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.

Risks

AAPL
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.3% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.42 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠6 insider sales totaling $111.7M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
MPC
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 10.7% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.

Key Valuation Metrics

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AAPL
MPC
Valuation
$101.09B
Free Cash Flow
$4.77B
2.31%
FCF Yield
6.72%
36.08
Trailing P/E
16.00
31.06
Forward P/E
10.00
Quality & Moat
60.20%
ROIC
6.61%
141.47%
ROE
27.46%
47.86%
Gross Margin
10.74%
2.42
PEG Ratio
1.24
Balance Sheet Safety
0.15
Net Debt / Equity
1.37
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.10
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.14
0.36%
Dividend Yield
1.60%
AAPL: 6Ties: 1MPC: 5
AAPLMPC

Historical Fundamentals

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AAPL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

MPC

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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AAPL
$7.57
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$257.06B
Δ Market Cap
+$1.94T
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
MPC
$-0.36
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$13.62B
Δ Market Cap
$-4.93B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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AAPL
63.8% Overvalued
Price is 63.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $298.01
Fair Value: $181.90
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
MPC
138.1% Overvalued
Price is 138.1% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $242.91
Fair Value: $102.01
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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AAPL

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $298?

+16.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +18.3%

The market implies +16.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +18.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

MPC

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $243?

+11.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +8.8%

The market implies +11.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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AAPL
96/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
MPC
54/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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AAPL
-2.29
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
MPC
-2.87
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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AAPL
Insiders 1.6%Institutions 65.8%Retail & Other 32.5%
No. of Institutional Holders7,675
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
MPC
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 78.5%Retail & Other 21.2%
No. of Institutional Holders2,342
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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AAPL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
MPC
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$269,440
@ $134.72 · 2025-03-11
BAYH B EVAN III
Director
$133,700
@ $133.70 · 2025-03-05
CAMPBELL JEFFREY C
Director
$897,644
@ $149.61 · 2024-12-04
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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AAPL
6
Sells (3M)
13
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $198.97M
LEVINSON ARTHUR D
Director
$15.55M
@ $311.02 · 2026-05-27
BORDERS BEN
Officer
$369,460
@ $290.00 · 2026-05-08
LEVINSON ARTHUR D
Director
$71.19M
@ $284.76 · 2026-05-06
PAREKH KEVAN
Chief Financial Officer
$421,850
@ $275.00 · 2026-04-23
COOK TIMOTHY D
Chief Executive Officer
$16.51M
@ $254.23 · 2026-04-02
O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
Officer
$7.66M
@ $255.35 · 2026-04-02
KONDO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$1.02M
@ $271.23 · 2025-11-07
PAREKH KEVAN
Chief Financial Officer
$1.04M
@ $247.39 · 2025-10-16
ADAMS KATHERINE L
General Counsel
$12.10M
@ $256.79 · 2025-10-02
COOK TIMOTHY D
Chief Executive Officer
$33.38M
@ $256.81 · 2025-10-02
O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
Officer
$11.07M
@ $257.39 · 2025-10-02
LEVINSON ARTHUR D
Director
$20.89M
@ $232.07 · 2025-08-28
O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
Officer
$7.77M
@ $223.20 · 2025-08-08
KONDO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$933,955
@ $208.19 · 2025-05-12
PAREKH KEVAN
Chief Financial Officer
$941,420
@ $206.00 · 2025-04-23
WILLIAMS JEFFREY E
Chief Operating Officer
$7.95M
@ $224.01 · 2025-04-02
ADAMS KATHERINE L
General Counsel
$8.68M
@ $223.67 · 2025-04-02
COOK TIMOTHY D
Chief Executive Officer
$24.18M
@ $223.65 · 2025-04-02
LEVINSON ARTHUR D
Director
$343,147
@ $226.35 · 2025-02-03
LEVINSON ARTHUR D
Director
$45.46M
@ $227.32 · 2024-11-19
KONDO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$945,233
@ $228.87 · 2024-11-18
MAESTRI LUCA
Chief Financial Officer
$13.43M
@ $226.52 · 2024-10-04
WILLIAMS JEFFREY E
Chief Operating Officer
$13.55M
@ $226.86 · 2024-10-02
ADAMS KATHERINE L
General Counsel
$13.80M
@ $226.20 · 2024-10-02
COOK TIMOTHY D
Chief Executive Officer
$50.28M
@ $224.46 · 2024-10-02
O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
Officer
$13.84M
@ $226.87 · 2024-10-02
KONDO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$1.96M
@ $225.00 · 2024-08-15
KONDO CHRISTOPHER
Officer
$1.12M
@ $216.50 · 2024-08-09
ADAMS KATHERINE L
General Counsel
$20.64M
@ $206.44 · 2024-08-05
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
MPC
2
Sells (3M)
7
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $7.11M
HENSCHEN MICHAEL A II
Officer
$1.70M
@ $268.82 · 2026-06-04
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$250,000
@ $250.00 · 2026-05-13
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$371,021
@ $228.18 · 2026-03-13
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$644,401
@ $226.34 · 2026-03-12
HENSCHEN MICHAEL A II
Officer
$1.07M
@ $202.32 · 2026-02-12
BENSON MOLLY R.
Officer
$1.77M
@ $163.00 · 2025-08-15
RUCKER KIM K. W.
Director
$1.29M
@ $175.00 · 2025-07-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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AAPL
FearGreed
😐Neutral(60/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
MPC
FearGreed
😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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AAPL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (60)
MPC
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
View AAPL Full AnalysisView MPC Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: AAPL vs MPC

Is Apple Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MPC trades at a 16.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $292 vs. price $243), compared to AAPL's -63.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $182 vs. $298).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Apple Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼

AAPL scores 96/100 (Wide moat), while MPC scores 54/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Apple Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) generates a 6.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Apple Inc.'s 2.3%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Apple Inc. or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼

AAPL earns 60.2% ROIC versus MPC's 6.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Apple Inc.'s or Marathon Petroleum Corporation's?▼

MPC's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to AAPL's 94/100 (Very Safe). MPC has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.