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Apple Inc. (AAPL) vs The Mosaic Company (MOS): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, AAPL is overvalued at $298, with a DCF intrinsic value of $182 and a margin of safety of -64%. MOS is undervalued at $23, with an intrinsic value of $108 and a margin of safety of 79%. Of the two, MOS has the wider margin of safety.

AAPL
Apple Inc.
$298.01
VS
MOS
The Mosaic Company
$22.90

Rewards

AAPL
  • ★Apple Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Apple Inc. scores 96/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
MOS

    Risks

    AAPL
    • ⚠FCF yield of 2.3% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
    • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.42 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
    • ⚠6 insider sales totaling $111.7M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
    MOS
    • ⚠ROIC has declined by 19.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
    • ⚠Gross margin of 13.3% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠The Mosaic Company scores only 15/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    AAPL
    MOS
    Valuation
    $101.09B
    Free Cash Flow
    $-289.79M
    2.31%
    FCF Yield
    -3.98%
    36.08
    Trailing P/E
    163.57
    31.06
    Forward P/E
    12.48
    Quality & Moat
    60.20%
    ROIC
    0.44%
    141.47%
    ROE
    0.59%
    47.86%
    Gross Margin
    13.31%
    2.42
    PEG Ratio
    2.02
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.15
    Net Debt / Equity
    0.46
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    0.10
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.75
    0.36%
    Dividend Yield
    4.06%
    AAPL: 8Ties: 1MOS: 3
    AAPLMOS

    Historical Fundamentals

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    AAPL

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    MOS

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    AAPL
    $7.57
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $257.06B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$1.94T
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    MOS
    $-7.39
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $977.8M
    Δ Market Cap
    $-7.23B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    AAPL
    63.8% Overvalued
    Price is 63.8% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $298.01
    Fair Value: $181.90
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    MOS
    78.9% Margin of Safety
    Price is 78.9% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $22.90
    Fair Value: $108.48
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    AAPL

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $298?

    +16.9%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +18.3%

    The market implies +16.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +18.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    MOS

    Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

    Economic Moat Score

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    AAPL
    96/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
    MOS
    15/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    AAPL
    -2.29
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    MOS
    -2.70
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    AAPL
    Insiders 1.6%Institutions 65.8%Retail & Other 32.5%
    No. of Institutional Holders7,675
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    MOS
    Insiders 0.3%Institutions 94.3%Retail & Other 5.4%
    No. of Institutional Holders983
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    AAPL
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    MOS
    0
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $17,488
    KUZENKO JODY LYNNE MARY
    Director
    $17,488
    @ $25.53 · 2025-11-11
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    AAPL
    6
    Sells (3M)
    13
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $198.97M
    LEVINSON ARTHUR D
    Director
    $15.55M
    @ $311.02 · 2026-05-27
    BORDERS BEN
    Officer
    $369,460
    @ $290.00 · 2026-05-08
    LEVINSON ARTHUR D
    Director
    $71.19M
    @ $284.76 · 2026-05-06
    PAREKH KEVAN
    Chief Financial Officer
    $421,850
    @ $275.00 · 2026-04-23
    COOK TIMOTHY D
    Chief Executive Officer
    $16.51M
    @ $254.23 · 2026-04-02
    O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
    Officer
    $7.66M
    @ $255.35 · 2026-04-02
    KONDO CHRISTOPHER
    Officer
    $1.02M
    @ $271.23 · 2025-11-07
    PAREKH KEVAN
    Chief Financial Officer
    $1.04M
    @ $247.39 · 2025-10-16
    ADAMS KATHERINE L
    General Counsel
    $12.10M
    @ $256.79 · 2025-10-02
    COOK TIMOTHY D
    Chief Executive Officer
    $33.38M
    @ $256.81 · 2025-10-02
    O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
    Officer
    $11.07M
    @ $257.39 · 2025-10-02
    LEVINSON ARTHUR D
    Director
    $20.89M
    @ $232.07 · 2025-08-28
    O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
    Officer
    $7.77M
    @ $223.20 · 2025-08-08
    KONDO CHRISTOPHER
    Officer
    $933,955
    @ $208.19 · 2025-05-12
    PAREKH KEVAN
    Chief Financial Officer
    $941,420
    @ $206.00 · 2025-04-23
    WILLIAMS JEFFREY E
    Chief Operating Officer
    $7.95M
    @ $224.01 · 2025-04-02
    ADAMS KATHERINE L
    General Counsel
    $8.68M
    @ $223.67 · 2025-04-02
    COOK TIMOTHY D
    Chief Executive Officer
    $24.18M
    @ $223.65 · 2025-04-02
    LEVINSON ARTHUR D
    Director
    $343,147
    @ $226.35 · 2025-02-03
    LEVINSON ARTHUR D
    Director
    $45.46M
    @ $227.32 · 2024-11-19
    KONDO CHRISTOPHER
    Officer
    $945,233
    @ $228.87 · 2024-11-18
    MAESTRI LUCA
    Chief Financial Officer
    $13.43M
    @ $226.52 · 2024-10-04
    WILLIAMS JEFFREY E
    Chief Operating Officer
    $13.55M
    @ $226.86 · 2024-10-02
    ADAMS KATHERINE L
    General Counsel
    $13.80M
    @ $226.20 · 2024-10-02
    COOK TIMOTHY D
    Chief Executive Officer
    $50.28M
    @ $224.46 · 2024-10-02
    O'BRIEN DEIRDRE
    Officer
    $13.84M
    @ $226.87 · 2024-10-02
    KONDO CHRISTOPHER
    Officer
    $1.96M
    @ $225.00 · 2024-08-15
    KONDO CHRISTOPHER
    Officer
    $1.12M
    @ $216.50 · 2024-08-09
    ADAMS KATHERINE L
    General Counsel
    $20.64M
    @ $206.44 · 2024-08-05
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    MOS
    0
    Sells (3M)
    0
    Sells (12M)
    PRECOURT WALTER F. III
    Officer
    $643,140
    @ $35.73 · 2025-05-29
    BODINE BRUCE M
    Chief Executive Officer
    $5.70M
    @ $31.56 · 2025-05-08
    PRECOURT WALTER F. III
    Officer
    $1.11M
    @ $27.96 · 2024-08-13
    WESTBROOK KELVIN R
    Director
    $346,042
    @ $27.32 · 2024-08-12
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

    Learn more →
    AAPL
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(60/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    MOS
    FearGreed
    😨Fear(33/100)

    "Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

    Learn more →
    AAPL
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (60)
    MOS
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (33)
    View AAPL Full AnalysisView MOS Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: AAPL vs MOS

    Is Apple Inc. or The Mosaic Company more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, MOS trades at a 78.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $108 vs. price $23), compared to AAPL's -63.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $182 vs. $298).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, Apple Inc. or The Mosaic Company?▼

    AAPL scores 96/100 (Wide moat), while MOS scores 15/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is The Mosaic Company in financial distress?▼

    MOS's Altman Z-Score of 1.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. AAPL scores 10.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which company has better free cash flow, Apple Inc. or The Mosaic Company?▼

    Apple Inc. (AAPL) generates a 2.3% free cash flow yield, compared to The Mosaic Company's -4.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Apple Inc. or The Mosaic Company?▼

    AAPL earns 60.2% ROIC versus MOS's 0.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, Apple Inc.'s or The Mosaic Company's?▼

    AAPL's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MOS's 63/100 (Safe). AAPL has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.